2014 HoF ballot

biggentleben · December 7, 2013

You can try to configure the timelines in all kinds of ways. Regardless, there is no basis to argue that the previous rate of admissions is correct - it's just a matter of opinion. I think too many players are in (despite some worthy ones being left out). And either way, a quota system makes zero sense for picking HoF players.

No one said a quota - he's showing that stating that being the 5th best pitcher in an extended stretch is nearly a guarantee to be in the Hall of Fame. It should be. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. Not the best single seasons, but the best extended period of high success. Glavine, despite your insistence against it, was a dominant pitcher for an extended period of time in his career.

drivlikejehu · December 7, 2013

No one said a quota - he's showing that stating that being the 5th best pitcher in an extended stretch is nearly a guarantee to be in the Hall of Fame. It should be. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. Not the best single seasons, but the best extended period of high success. Glavine, despite your insistence against it, was a dominant pitcher for an extended period of time in his career.

He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.

Look at the difficulty Blyleven had getting in- and he demolishes Glavine in terms of WAR (FG or B-R) and most counting stats, trailing only by 15 wins. Context has traditionally played a huge role in Hall selections, and Glavine is a prime example.

biggentleben · December 7, 2013

He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.

Look at the difficulty Blyleven had getting in- and he demolishes Glavine in terms of WAR (FG or B-R) and most counting stats, trailing only by 15 wins. Context has traditionally played a huge role in Hall selections, and Glavine is a prime example.

Then this discussion is done. If you believe he wasn't dominant because he didn't strike people out, you are welcome to that misconception. I'll enjoy reality instead.

Willihammer · December 7, 2013

He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.

I almost agree with you actually. I remember watching the Braves lose all those playoff series back in the 90s and I always thought Glavine was the 3rd best, if not the 4th best pitcher on his own team (when Milwood was on it). In terms of "stuff," I'd put Glavine behind guys like Al Leiter and Kevin Brown even, to say nothing of Johnson, Pedro, Schilling, etc. And the peripheral, strikeout type stats (and even things like opponent OPS and WAR) back that up. Glavine has so much longevity though, that it offsets. When you pitch for 22 years, I don't think you don't have to be the best of the best.

Thrylos · December 7, 2013

Here's the voting so far:

OUT, BUT STILL ON BALLOT

Jack Morris, 29.63

Nope. On the way to the veteran's committee... last year for him

Thrylos · December 7, 2013

I almost agree with you actually. I remember watching the Braves lose all those playoff series back in the 90s and I always thought Glavine was the 3rd best, if not the 4th best pitcher on his own team (when Milwood was on it). In terms of "stuff," I'd put Glavine behind guys like Al Leiter and Kevin Brown even, to say nothing of Johnson, Pedro, Schilling, etc. And the peripheral, strikeout type stats (and even things like opponent OPS and WAR) back that up. Glavine has so much longevity though, that it offsets. When you pitch for 22 years, I don't think you don't have to be the best of the best.

Quick question: Compare Glavine and Blyleven. Who was a more successful pitcher? Hope point is made

Willihammer · December 9, 2013

Quick question: Compare Glavine and Blyleven. Who was a more successful pitcher? Hope point is made

I didn't watch him pitch, but numbers-wise it has to be Blyleven. Higher peak and larger output.

biggentleben · December 29, 2013

Assuming no further votes (29 total votes):

IN:

Maddux 100%

Biggio 89.66% (26 votes)

Glavine 89.66%

Thomas 82.76% (24 votes)

OUT, over 5%:

Piazza 68.97% (20)

Bagwell 62.07% (18)

Bonds 62.07%

Clemens 62.07%

Raines 51.72% (15)

Morris 27.59% (8)

Schilling 27.59%

Mussina 24.14% (7)

Walker 17.24% (5)

Trammell 13.79% (4)

Martinez 10.34% (3)

McGwire 10.34%

Smith 10.34%

Kent 6.90% (2)

McGriff 6.90%

OUT, less than 5%:

Mattingly 3.45% (1)

Sosa 3.45%

Palmeiro 0%

biggentleben · December 29, 2013

Nope. On the way to the veteran's committee... last year for him

Yeah, poor wording, which is why I changed the wording.

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

Thrylos brought a thought to mind with his HOF standard ~ 75 WAR.

Is the current number closer to 50 WAR?

Would WAR/yr be a little more relevant?

So I took all the players with 50 WAR or greater (297 players). This may miss some of the Gale Sayers equivalents, but what would those players look like in terms of WAR/yr. Jaime Moyer has 50.2 WAR, but with 25 years, he would only have a WAR/yr of 2.0.

Would4 WAR/yr would be a good cutoff? Just missing the cut with a 4 WAR/yr is Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, & Ken Griffey, Jr.

Could be some exceptions for injuries, which if taking out those yrs they would be closer to 5 WAR/yr.

Here's the results (in increments due to character limit restrictions)

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

1

Babe Ruth+ (22)

183.8

HOF

22

8.4

1

3

Walter Johnson+ (21)

165.6

HOF

21

7.9

2

16

Kid Nichols+ (15)

116.4

HOF

15

7.8

3

2

Cy Young+ (22)

168.4

HOF

22

7.7

4

72

Jim McCormick (10)

75.8

-

10

7.6

5

186

Al Spalding+ (8)

59.2

HOF

8

7.4

6

4

Barry Bonds (22)

162.5

-

22

7.4

7

40

Albert Pujols (13, 33)

93.0

-

13

7.2

8

5

Willie Mays+ (22)

156.1

HOF

22

7.1

9

54

John Clarkson+ (12)

84.0

HOF

12

7.0

10

104

Amos Rusie+ (10)

69.3

HOF

10

6.9

11

18

Lou Gehrig+ (17)

112.5

HOF

17

6.6

12

14

Ted Williams+ (19)

123.2

HOF

19

6.5

13

71

Old Hoss Radbourn+ (12)

76.0

HOF

12

6.3

14

6

Ty Cobb+ (24)

151.2

HOF

24

6.3

15

10

Honus Wagner+ (21)

130.6

HOF

21

6.2

16

48

Tim Keefe+ (14)

86.7

HOF

14

6.2

17

7

Hank Aaron+ (23)

142.4

HOF

23

6.2

18

164

Jackie Robinson+ (10)

61.4

HOF

10

6.1

19

168

Tommy Bond (10)

61.0

-

10

6.1

20

21

Mickey Mantle+ (18)

109.7

HOF

18

6.1

21

27

Lefty Grove+ (17)

103.6

HOF

17

6.1

22

9

Tris Speaker+ (22)

133.9

HOF

22

6.1

23

171

Bob Caruthers (10)

60.6

-

10

6.1

24

67

Joe DiMaggio+ (13)

78.2

HOF

13

6.0

25

15

Pete Alexander+ (20)

120.1

HOF

20

6.0

26

29

Christy Mathewson+ (17)

101.8

HOF

17

6.0

27

26

Mike Schmidt+ (18)

106.5

HOF

18

5.9

28

8

Roger Clemens (24)

140.3

-

24

5.8

29

11

Stan Musial+ (22)

128.1

HOF

22

5.8

30

17

Alex Rodriguez (20, 37)

115.7

-

20

5.8

31

200

Joe McGinnity+ (10)

57.8

HOF

10

5.8

32

34

Eddie Mathews+ (17)

96.2

HOF

17

5.7

33

157

Charlie Buffinton (11)

62.2

-

11

5.7

34

221

Jim Whitney (10)

55.7

-

10

5.6

35

20

Tom Seaver+ (20)

110.5

HOF

20

5.5

36

12

Rogers Hornsby+ (23)

127.0

HOF

23

5.5

37

63

Jeff Bagwell (15)

79.5

-

15

5.3

38

195

Chase Utley (11, 34)

58.2

-

11

5.3

39

45

Bob Gibson+ (17)

89.9

HOF

17

5.3

40

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

46

Eddie Plank+ (17)

89.8

HOF

17

5.3

41

38

Roberto Clemente+ (18)

94.3

HOF

18

5.2

42

116

Tony Mullane (13)

67.8

-

13

5.2

43

82

Arky Vaughan+ (14)

73.0

HOF

14

5.2

44

207

Joe Gordon+ (11)

57.1

HOF

11

5.2

45

266

Silver King (10)

51.9

-

10

5.2

46

23

Nap Lajoie+ (21)

107.2

HOF

21

5.1

47

24

Frank Robinson+ (21)

107.1

HOF

21

5.1

48

42

Wade Boggs+ (18)

91.0

HOF

18

5.1

49

231

Miguel Cabrera (11, 30)

54.6

-

11

5.0

50

13

Eddie Collins+ (25)

124.0

HOF

25

5.0

51

80

Pud Galvin+ (15)

73.7

HOF

15

4.9

52

22

Mel Ott+ (22)

107.9

HOF

22

4.9

53

144

Vic Willis+ (13)

63.5

HOF

13

4.9

54

32

Jimmie Foxx+ (20)

97.4

HOF

20

4.9

55

148

Mickey Welch+ (13)

63.1

HOF

13

4.9

56

154

Home Run Baker+ (13)

62.6

HOF

13

4.8

57

123

Don Drysdale+ (14)

67.2

HOF

14

4.8

58

156

Shoeless Joe Jackson (13)

62.4

-

13

4.8

59

31

Warren Spahn+ (21)

100.1

HOF

21

4.8

60

91

Johnny Mize+ (15)

70.9

HOF

15

4.7

61

92

Ron Santo+ (15)

70.6

HOF

15

4.7

62

133

Ed Walsh+ (14)

65.6

HOF

14

4.7

63

270

Ted Breitenstein (11)

51.5

-

11

4.7

64

53

Roger Connor+ (18)

84.2

HOF

18

4.7

65

55

Pedro Martinez (18)

84.0

-

18

4.7

66

25

Greg Maddux (23)

106.8

-

23

4.6

67

28

Randy Johnson (22)

102.1

-

22

4.6

68

280

Jack Stivetts (11)

50.9

-

11

4.6

69

57

Mike Mussina (18)

83.0

-

18

4.6

70

30

Joe Morgan+ (22)

100.4

HOF

22

4.6

71

36

Cal Ripken+ (21)

95.6

HOF

21

4.6

72

49

Robin Roberts+ (19)

86.0

HOF

19

4.5

73

189

Urban Shocker (13)

58.7

-

13

4.5

74

146

Billy Hamilton+ (14)

63.1

HOF

14

4.5

75

191

Ichiro Suzuki (13, 39)

58.5

-

13

4.5

76

192

Rube Waddell+ (13)

58.5

HOF

13

4.5

77

50

Chipper Jones (19)

85.2

-

19

4.5

78

51

Fergie Jenkins+ (19)

84.9

HOF

19

4.5

79

202

Hank Greenberg+ (13)

57.6

HOF

13

4.4

80

19

Rickey Henderson+ (25)

110.7

HOF

25

4.4

81

75

Johnny Bench+ (17)

75.2

HOF

17

4.4

82

93

Adrian Beltre (16, 34)

70.5

-

16

4.4

83

208

Bob Johnson (13)

57.1

-

13

4.4

84

101

Ed Delahanty+ (16)

69.5

HOF

16

4.3

85

37

Bert Blyleven+ (22)

95.4

HOF

22

4.3

86

176

Stan Coveleski+ (14)

60.2

HOF

14

4.3

87

275

Johan Santana (12, 34)

51.4

-

12

4.3

88

60

Rod Carew+ (19)

81.2

HOF

19

4.3

89

85

Larry Walker (17)

72.6

-

17

4.3

90

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

225

CC Sabathia (13, 32)

55.4

-

13

4.3

91

61

Charlie Gehringer+ (19)

80.7

HOF

19

4.2

92

86

Harry Heilmann+ (17)

72.2

HOF

17

4.2

93

283

Kirby Puckett+ (12)

50.8

HOF

12

4.2

94

145

Richie Ashburn+ (15)

63.4

HOF

15

4.2

95

119

Ryne Sandberg+ (16)

67.6

HOF

16

4.2

96

52

George Davis+ (20)

84.4

HOF

20

4.2

97

120

Carlos Beltran (16, 36)

67.5

-

16

4.2

98

121

Carl Hubbell+ (16)

67.5

HOF

16

4.2

99

47

George Brett+ (21)

88.4

HOF

21

4.2

100

41

Al Kaline+ (22)

92.6

HOF

22

4.2

101

149

Lou Boudreau+ (15)

63.0

HOF

15

4.2

102

152

Ken Boyer (15)

62.9

-

15

4.2

103

90

Bobby Grich (17)

71.0

-

17

4.2

104

35

Carl Yastrzemski+ (23)

96.0

HOF

23

4.2

105

197

Eddie Cicotte (14)

58.0

-

14

4.1

106

129

Pee Wee Reese+ (16)

66.2

HOF

16

4.1

107

43

Gaylord Perry+ (22)

91.0

HOF

22

4.1

108

66

Dan Brouthers+ (19)

78.3

HOF

19

4.1

109

99

Scott Rolen (17)

70.0

-

17

4.1

110

201

Bobby Bonds (14)

57.6

-

14

4.1

111

162

Wes Ferrell (15)

61.6

-

15

4.1

112

253

Elmer Flick+ (13)

53.1

HOF

13

4.1

113

136

Roy Halladay (16, 36)

64.6

-

16

4.0

114

69

Ozzie Smith+ (19)

76.5

HOF

19

4.0

115

33

Phil Niekro+ (24)

96.6

HOF

24

4.0

116

214

Mordecai Brown+ (14)

56.3

HOF

14

4.0

117

264

Mickey Cochrane+ (13)

52.1

HOF

13

4.0

118

114

Kenny Lofton (17)

68.1

-

17

4.0

119

62

Curt Schilling (20)

79.9

-

20

4.0

120

76

Sam Crawford+ (19)

75.2

HOF

19

4.0

121

147

Juan Marichal+ (16)

63.1

HOF

16

3.9

122

77

Lou Whitaker (19)

74.8

-

19

3.9

123

124

Roberto Alomar+ (17)

66.8

HOF

17

3.9

124

188

Dick Allen (15)

58.7

-

15

3.9

125

234

Bill Terry+ (14)

54.3

HOF

14

3.9

126

159

Mark McGwire (16)

62.0

-

16

3.9

127

81

Frank Thomas (19)

73.6

-

19

3.9

128

68

Robin Yount+ (20)

77.1

HOF

20

3.9

129

295

Roy Oswalt (13, 35)

50.1

-

13

3.9

130

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

161

Sal Bando (16)

61.6

-

16

3.9

131

239

Mark Buehrle (14, 34)

53.9

-

14

3.9

132

297

Eddie Rommel (13)

50.0

-

13

3.8

133

242

Joe Sewell+ (14)

53.8

HOF

14

3.8

134

248

Jimmy Collins+ (14)

53.3

HOF

14

3.8

135

56

Ken Griffey (22)

83.6

-

22

3.8

136

210

Tim Hudson (15, 37)

57.0

-

15

3.8

137

111

Edgar Martinez (18)

68.3

-

18

3.8

138

139

Reggie Smith (17)

64.4

-

17

3.8

139

213

George Sisler+ (15)

56.7

HOF

15

3.8

140

Monte Ward+ (17)

64.1

HOF

17

3.8

141

88

Derek Jeter (19, 39)

71.6

-

19

3.8

142

44

Steve Carlton+ (24)

90.4

HOF

24

3.8

143

216

Will Clark (15)

56.2

-

15

3.7

144

179

Jesse Burkett+ (16)

59.9

HOF

16

3.7

145

180

Vladimir Guerrero (16)

59.9

-

16

3.7

146

181

Dazzy Vance+ (16)

59.9

HOF

16

3.7

147

262

Larry Jackson (14)

52.2

-

14

3.7

148

78

Luke Appling+ (20)

74.5

HOF

20

3.7

149

222

Jim Wynn (15)

55.7

-

15

3.7

150

151

Hal Newhouser+ (17)

63.0

HOF

17

3.7

151

94

Frankie Frisch+ (19)

70.4

HOF

19

3.7

152

59

Tom Glavine (22)

81.4

-

22

3.7

153

184

Mike Piazza (16)

59.2

-

16

3.7

154

185

Bret Saberhagen (16)

59.2

-

16

3.7

155

97

Barry Larkin+ (19)

70.2

HOF

19

3.7

156

127

Duke Snider+ (18)

66.5

HOF

18

3.7

157

187

Sherry Magee (16)

59.1

-

16

3.7

158

153

Andruw Jones (17)

62.7

-

17

3.7

159

98

Rick Reuschel (19)

70.0

-

19

3.7

160

155

David Cone (17)

62.5

-

17

3.7

161

100

Gary Carter+ (19)

69.8

HOF

19

3.7

162

130

Goose Goslin+ (18)

66.1

HOF

18

3.7

163

229

Bobby Mathews (15)

55.0

-

15

3.7

164

276

Bobby Doerr+ (14)

51.3

HOF

14

3.7

165

131

Buddy Bell (18)

65.9

-

18

3.7

166

103

Jim Palmer+ (19)

69.4

HOF

19

3.7

167

132

Willie Randolph (18)

65.6

-

18

3.6

168

84

Paul Waner+ (20)

72.8

HOF

20

3.6

169

106

Manny Ramirez (19, 41)

69.1

-

19

3.6

170

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

232

Billy Herman+ (15)

54.5

HOF

15

3.6

171

163

Jack Glasscock (17)

61.4

-

17

3.6

172

165

Todd Helton (17, 39)

61.3

-

17

3.6

173

73

Paul Molitor+ (21)

75.5

HOF

21

3.6

174

109

Kevin Brown (19)

68.3

-

19

3.6

175

87

Rafael Palmeiro (20)

71.8

-

20

3.6

176

203

Whitey Ford+ (16)

57.4

HOF

16

3.6

177

74

Bill Dahlen (21)

75.3

-

21

3.6

178

243

Wilbur Cooper (15)

53.7

-

15

3.6

179

206

Dave Stieb (16)

57.2

-

16

3.6

180

296

Tony Lazzeri+ (14)

50.0

HOF

14

3.6

181

118

Ernie Banks+ (19)

67.6

HOF

19

3.6

182

250

Joe Tinker+ (15)

53.3

HOF

15

3.6

183

172

Bobby Abreu (17)

60.4

-

17

3.6

184

212

Jack Powell (16)

56.8

-

16

3.6

185

175

Jim Edmonds (17)

60.3

-

17

3.5

186

142

Billy Williams+ (18)

63.8

HOF

18

3.5

187

177

Keith Hernandez (17)

60.1

-

17

3.5

188

143

Bob Feller+ (18)

63.6

HOF

18

3.5

189

79

Reggie Jackson+ (21)

74.0

HOF

21

3.5

190

95

Alan Trammell (20)

70.4

-

20

3.5

191

258

Al Orth (15)

52.7

-

15

3.5

192

126

Luis Tiant (19)

66.7

-

19

3.5

193

182

Jim Bunning+ (17)

59.5

HOF

17

3.5

194

219

Robin Ventura (16)

55.9

-

16

3.5

195

39

Cap Anson+ (27)

93.8

HOF

27

3.5

196

226

Chet Lemon (16)

55.3

-

16

3.5

197

267

Lance Berkman (15, 37)

51.8

-

15

3.5

198

107

Tony Gwynn+ (20)

68.9

HOF

20

3.4

199

193

Chuck Finley (17)

58.4

-

17

3.4

200

230

Kevin Appier (16)

54.9

-

16

3.4

201

108

Al Simmons+ (20)

68.6

HOF

20

3.4

202

198

John Olerud (17)

58.0

-

17

3.4

203

65

Brooks Robinson+ (23)

78.4

HOF

23

3.4

204

89

Ted Lyons+ (21)

71.5

HOF

21

3.4

205

281

Brian Giles (15)

50.8

-

15

3.4

206

284

Bob Elliott (15)

50.7

-

15

3.4

207

169

Andy Pettitte (18, 41)

60.8

-

18

3.4

208

286

Dizzy Trout (15)

50.6

-

15

3.4

209

170

Willie Davis (18)

60.7

-

18

3.4

210

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

289

Carl Mays (15)

50.2

-

15

3.3

211

125

Dwight Evans (20)

66.7

-

20

3.3

212

252

Dwight Gooden (16)

53.2

-

16

3.3

213

128

Joe Cronin+ (20)

66.4

HOF

20

3.3

214

102

John Smoltz (21)

69.5

-

21

3.3

215

83

Jim Thome (22)

72.8

-

22

3.3

216

64

Pete Rose (24)

79.4

-

24

3.3

217

George Uhle (17)

56.0

-

17

3.3

218

Bill Dickey+ (17)

55.9

HOF

17

3.3

219

261

Stan Hack (16)

52.5

-

16

3.3

220

223

Joe Medwick+ (17)

55.5

HOF

17

3.3

221

112

Ivan Rodriguez (21)

68.3

-

21

3.3

222

113

Eddie Murray+ (21)

68.2

HOF

21

3.2

223

227

Jeff Kent (17)

55.2

-

17

3.2

224

134

Craig Biggio (20)

64.9

-

20

3.2

225

135

Red Faber+ (20)

64.9

HOF

20

3.2

226

194

Sammy Sosa (18)

58.4

-

18

3.2

227

117

Fred Clarke+ (21)

67.7

HOF

21

3.2

228

96

Red Ruffing+ (22)

70.3

HOF

22

3.2

229

278

Tommy Bridges (16)

51.1

-

16

3.2

230

204

Joe Torre+ (18)

57.4

HOF

18

3.2

231

285

Mark Langston (16)

50.7

-

16

3.2

232

178

Zack Wheat+ (19)

60.0

HOF

19

3.2

233

211

Orel Hershiser (18)

56.8

-

18

3.2

234

244

Harry Hooper+ (17)

53.6

HOF

17

3.2

235

247

Ron Cey (17)

53.3

-

17

3.1

236

215

Johnny Damon (18)

56.3

-

18

3.1

237

183

Yogi Berra+ (19)

59.3

HOF

19

3.1

238

220

Luis Aparicio+ (18)

55.7

HOF

18

3.1

239

259

Cesar Cedeno (17)

52.6

-

17

3.1

240

115

Graig Nettles (22)

68.0

-

22

3.1

241

137

Andre Dawson+ (21)

64.4

HOF

21

3.1

242

263

Norm Cash (17)

52.1

-

17

3.1

243

167

Jake Beckley+ (20)

61.0

HOF

20

3.1

244

70

Bobby Wallace+ (25)

76.2

HOF

25

3.0

245

58

Nolan Ryan+ (27)

81.8

HOF

27

3.0

246

277

Toby Harrah (17)

51.2

-

17

3.0

247

235

Vada Pinson (18)

54.2

-

18

3.0

248

209

Mariano Rivera (19, 43)

57.1

-

19

3.0

249

105

Tim Raines (23)

69.1

-

23

3.0

250

[/TABLE]

twinsfan34 · December 29, 2013

[TABLE=width: 686]

Rank

Player (yrs age)

WAR

HOF ??

Years

WAR/yr

WAR/YR Rank

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 686]

287

Joe Kelley+ (17)

50.5

HOF

17

3.0

251

246

Billy Pierce (18)

53.4

-

18

3.0

252

290

Minnie Minoso (17)

50.2

-

17

3.0

253

292

Wilbur Wood (17)

50.2

-

17

3.0

254

160

Clark Griffith+ (21)

61.9

HOF

21

2.9

255

293

Orlando Cepeda+ (17)

50.1

HOF

17

2.9

256

294

Torii Hunter (17, 37)

50.1

-

17

2.9

257

255

Jack Clark (18)

52.9

-

18

2.9

258

257

Bid McPhee+ (18)

52.7

HOF

18

2.9

259

138

Willie McCovey+ (22)

64.4

HOF

22

2.9

260

122

Don Sutton+ (23)

67.3

HOF

23

2.9

261

141

Dave Winfield+ (22)

64.0

HOF

22

2.9

262

228

Enos Slaughter+ (19)

55.1

HOF

19

2.9

263

233

Jose Cruz (19)

54.3

-

19

2.9

264

236

Bucky Walters (19)

54.2

-

19

2.9

265

237

Willie Keeler+ (19)

54.1

HOF

19

2.8

266

110

Carlton Fisk+ (24)

68.3

HOF

24

2.8

267

241

Jerry Koosman (19)

53.8

-

19

2.8

268

282

Tony Phillips (18)

50.8

-

18

2.8

269

251

Bert Campaneris (19)

53.2

-

19

2.8

270

254

Burleigh Grimes+ (19)

53.0

HOF

19

2.8

271

190

Darrell Evans (21)

58.5

-

21

2.8

272

260

Fred McGriff (19)

52.6

-

19

2.8

273

199

Frank Tanana (21)

57.9

-

21

2.8

274

173

Harmon Killebrew+ (22)

60.4

HOF

22

2.7

275

174

Gary Sheffield (22)

60.4

-

22

2.7

276

265

Babe Adams (19)

52.0

-

19

2.7

277

205

Willie Stargell+ (21)

57.3

HOF

21

2.7

278

271

Luis Gonzalez (19)

51.5

-

19

2.7

279

240

Max Carey+ (20)

53.9

HOF

20

2.7

280

279

Jason Giambi (19, 42)

51.1

-

19

2.7

281

166

Early Wynn+ (23)

61.3

HOF

23

2.7

282

249

Gabby Hartnett+ (20)

53.3

HOF

20

2.7

283

256

Sam Rice+ (20)

52.9

HOF

20

2.6

284

224

Eppa Rixey+ (21)

55.4

HOF

21

2.6

285

150

Dennis Eckersley+ (24)

63.0

HOF

24

2.6

286

272

Brian Downing (20)

51.4

-

20

2.6

287

274

Kenny Rogers (20)

51.4

-

20

2.6

288

245

David Wells (21)

53.6

-

21

2.6

289

196

Jack Quinn (23)

58.1

-

23

2.5

290

268

Waite Hoyt+ (21)

51.8

HOF

21

2.5

291

Ted Simmons (21)

50.2

-

21

2.4

292

158

Tommy John (26)

62.0

-

26

2.4

293

238

Tony Perez+ (23)

54.0

HOF

23

2.3

294

269

Jim O'Rourke+ (23)

51.7

HOF

23

2.2

295

273

Jim Kaat (25)

51.4

-

25

2.1

296

288

Jamie Moyer (25)

50.4

-

25

2.0

297

[/TABLE]

thetank · December 30, 2013

What constitutes a year when using WAR/year? I couldn't find Lou Brock in the list. Catchers and SS get under-valued in this system.

Pius Jefferson · December 31, 2013

The BBTF collecting gizmo

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2013_hof_ballot_collecting_gizmo/P300

biggentleben · December 31, 2013

What constitutes a year when using WAR/year? I couldn't find Lou Brock in the list. Catchers and SS get under-valued in this system.

Up the middle players are under-rated in the game in general. Catchers ruin their bodies so much just doing what they do, so you either have a guy who is hot for a short time and quickly succumbs to injuries or a guy who is mediocre, but he hangs on forever and accumulates stats that rank near the top of the position. The real trick is trying to value historical catching defense. We're still three+ years from putting anywhere near an accurate value on framing, and that's something everyone is paying attention to now, so you can imagine how far we are from even accurately evaluating current catchers, let alone catchers in history.

I'd put shortstops in the same light. So much is demanded of them defensively, and their peak is so short, that they often don't have the career stats to measure up to a corner IF/OF type. A lot of the solid defensive shortstops as young players end up transitioning to 3B as they age because the range, reactions, and plain speed required at shortstop is really a young man's game.

I could make arguments for a number more catchers and shortstops to be in over the Jim Rices of the world, but the offensive focused traditionalists would have a cow over that.

Sarah · January 3, 2014

I heart Greg Maddux. I was lucky enough to meet him once and get his autograph and I remember my dad saying, "That's Greg Maddux? He could be my accountant." Back in the day when all the Braves games were on TBS watching his ability to put the baseball exactly where he wanted...good times.

Thrylos · January 3, 2014

I could make arguments for a number more catchers and shortstops to be in over the Jim Rices of the world, but the offensive focused traditionalists would have a cow over that.

They are

There are as many SS in the HOF as RFs for the highest position (24)

Ozzie Smith has a career .666 OPS and 87 OPS+

Luis Aparicio a career .662 OPS and 82 OPS+

Phil Rizzuto .706 OPS and 93 OPS+

etc

those guys are not there for their bats (and should probably not all of them be there)

That's why I like WAR. Because it takes care of the defense as well. Ozzie Smith has a 76.5 WAR because of his glove. His oWAR is only in the 40s...

Catchers are the same story, but they are fewer (16)

Senators' own Rick Ferrell is similar situation with Ozzie Smith. Career .741 OPS and 95 OPS plus are not enough for an OF to be in...

AlwaysinModeration · January 4, 2014

Thanks for rescucitating this thread. Here is my ballot:

Bonds

Maddux

Clemens

Piazza

Thomas

Glavine

Biggio

Bagwell

Raines

Schilling

I can't believe that I can't vote for Edgar, Mussina, or Walker.

Trammell, Kent, Morris were all superstars, too, but just outside for me.

raindog · January 4, 2014

• Jeff Bagwell

• Craig Biggio

• Barry Bonds

• Roger Clemens

• Tom Glavine

• Greg Maddux

• Edgar Martinez

• Mike Piazza

• Sammy Sosa

• Frank Thomas

It's ridiculously hard to narrow it down to 10. But they guys above should be in immediately.

one_eyed_jack · January 4, 2014

They are

There are as many SS in the HOF as RFs for the highest position (24)
Ozzie Smith has a career .666 OPS and 87 OPS+
Luis Aparicio a career .662 OPS and 82 OPS+
Phil Rizzuto .706 OPS and 93 OPS+
etc
those guys are not there for their bats (and should probably not all of them be there)

That's why I like WAR. Because it takes care of the defense as well. Ozzie Smith has a 76.5 WAR because of his glove. His oWAR is only in the 40s...

Catchers are the same story, but they are fewer (16)

Senators' own Rick Ferrell is similar situation with Ozzie Smith. Career .741 OPS and 95 OPS plus are not enough for an OF to be in...

Jeter's career WAR is 71.6. Is he a "no" for you because he's under your 75-WAR cutoff?

kab21 · January 4, 2014

They are

There are as many SS in the HOF as RFs for the highest position (24)
Ozzie Smith has a career .666 OPS and 87 OPS+
Luis Aparicio a career .662 OPS and 82 OPS+
Phil Rizzuto .706 OPS and 93 OPS+
etc
those guys are not there for their bats (and should probably not all of them be there)

That's why I like WAR. Because it takes care of the defense as well. Ozzie Smith has a 76.5 WAR because of his glove. His oWAR is only in the 40s...

Catchers are the same story, but they are fewer (16)

Senators' own Rick Ferrell is similar situation with Ozzie Smith. Career .741 OPS and 95 OPS plus are not enough for an OF to be in...

WAR is okay to use as a basic analysis but making it the definitive criteria is lazy.

January 5, 2014

They are

There are as many SS in the HOF as RFs for the highest position (24)
Ozzie Smith has a career .666 OPS and 87 OPS+
Luis Aparicio a career .662 OPS and 82 OPS+
Phil Rizzuto .706 OPS and 93 OPS+
etc
those guys are not there for their bats (and should probably not all of them be there)

That's why I like WAR. Because it takes care of the defense as well. Ozzie Smith has a 76.5 WAR because of his glove. His oWAR is only in the 40s...

Catchers are the same story, but they are fewer (16)

Senators' own Rick Ferrell is similar situation with Ozzie Smith. Career .741 OPS and 95 OPS plus are not enough for an OF to be in...

How is Ozzie Smith's WAR calculated without PBP data from which to assign UZR numbers?

AlwaysinModeration · January 5, 2014

Assuming no further votes (29 total votes):

IN:
Maddux 100%
Biggio 89.66% (26 votes)
Glavine 89.66%
Thomas 82.76% (24 votes)

OUT, over 5%:
Piazza 68.97% (20)
Bagwell 62.07% (18)
Bonds 62.07%
Clemens 62.07%
Raines 51.72% (15)
Morris 27.59% (8)
Schilling 27.59%
Mussina 24.14% (7)
Walker 17.24% (5)
Trammell 13.79% (4)
Martinez 10.34% (3)
McGwire 10.34%
Smith 10.34%
Kent 6.90% (2)
McGriff 6.90%

OUT, less than 5%:
Mattingly 3.45% (1)
Sosa 3.45%
Palmeiro 0%

Up to 31 votes, Piazza creeping up to about 72%. Twins Daily has a pretty good ballot, I'd say...those four look like a pretty reasonable guess as to the players to be voted in this week.

I'd say TD is way low on Morris, and high on Bonds and Clemens. Other than that, pretty spot on. One thing that is off with the TD ballots is the fact that we don't have any dumb "not anyone ballots."

Pius Jefferson · January 6, 2014

Go to the Baseball Factory Home Page and they have their collecting Gizmo at over 23% of the votes counted. Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas are going to make it and Biggio is in good shape at over 80%.

mikecgrimes · January 6, 2014

If more then 3 or 4 don't get in this year the ballot is going to be to full for the next 8 to 10 years with no doubt about it first ballot hall of famers Bonds and Clemens getting 2 votes on most ballots every year and falling short. But it's OK the lesser steroid users who were not the media focus will skate by!!! Why put the greatest player in the last 50 years in the hall of fame when you can just talk about his head being a different size.

Thrylos · January 6, 2014

Why put the greatest player in the last 50 years in the hall of fame when you can just talk about his head being a different size.

Love that size of the head talk regarding Bonds and proof of steroid use by big head and big muscles . Check this out:

http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2840/11806566255_c5fa94fb9f_z.jpg

http://tireball.com/mlb/files/2013/01/frankthomas.jpg

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/dam/assets/130109214120-barry-bonds-650-single-image-cut.jpg

http://sportscasm.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/frank-thomas.jpg

Me thinks that Thomas has a bigger head and bigger muscles...

And for comparison's sake, here is Thomas' rookie card picture:

http://acimg.auctivacommerce.com/imgdata/0/2/7/3/3/5/webimg/4287638.jpg

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