Adrian Beltre – Hall of Famer?

[Thrylos]

If Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell and (to a lesser degree) Mike Piazza are not Hall of Famers, so is not Beltre. Never know how the writers going to vote.

 

For me he is borderline (like Scott Rolen.)

[Winston Smith]

Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.

[Trautmann13]

I believe Beltre should be a first ballot HOFer. Yet, I'm not convinced he will be. He was rocky at best to begin his career, especially in Seattle. He most definately will be a second ballot though.

[Physics Guy]

I think he has a better chance than Mauer does. Please don't yell at me!

 

Can I agree with you? Beltre has put together five out of his six best seasons since he turned 30. I'm starting to have a tough time seeing Mauer doing the same.

[snepp]

I knew we had this discussion not long ago, and sure enough, we did. Threads merged.

 

 

 

And my opinion hasn't changed, he's still HoF-worthy right now.

[Brad Swanson]

Something to think about Joe Mauer is listed at 44.6 war tied with Chuck Knoblauch for 386. Thatreally surprised me.

 

Knoblauch was on a borderline HOF path himself through age 28. Nearly 40 WAR, excellent defender, excellent baserunner, underrated hitter. Then it all fell apart.

 

I was firmly in the Mauer is a HOF player camp going into last season, but I also thought he'd stay at catcher for at least a few more seasons. Now, I'm not sure he will make the Hall.

[Guest]

Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

 

He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

 

Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The other thing to consider is that the HOF has a very small # of third basemen. The voters have been very picky with the position, and guys that have been voted in recently have had the big counting stats (3000 hits like Boggs, Molitor, Brett).

Chipper Jones should be a lock, but I would not be shocked if even he was not a 1st ballot guy.

Beltre has been great for a long time (I really REALLY wanted the Twins to sign him the last time he was Free Agent) and if he can keep it up until he turns 40, I think he'll be sitting closer to the top 5 WAR at his position. That should make it an easier vote for most.

[Willihammer]

Beltre has clearly been one of the best players in the American League over the past few years. However, here's the anti case regarding his qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

 

He was a disappointment during his first seven years with the Dodgers, except for his walk year, when he became the poster child for players ramping up production in a walk year. Then, he got a big five-year payday to go to Seattle, where he was also generally considered to be an underperformer, although his stats were not bad, if not at the level of a Hall-of-Famer.

 

Other than his walk year with the Dodgers, he has produced like an HOFer only during the four years after leaving Seattle, starting at age 31, when he played in Fenway and Arlington, two favorable hitters parks. Part of being a HOFer is demonstrating consistent excellence through a career. Perhaps Beltre can continue his mid-30's success into his later 30's, but his 20's were generally a disappointment (again, except for the Dodgers walk year, when he was truly outstanding) and players that improve that much in their 30's are generally looked at with suspicion.

 

And that's maybe why he'll sit on the ballot a long time. Offensively he was up and down between below average and elite. He only has 4 GGs, 3 all star appearances, and zero MVPs. His career OPS+ is just 114. But he's always b een an amazing defender. As metrics improve and/or people start weighting them more heavily, I think his defensive value will push his case over the top.