August was the Month that Sealed the 2026 Twins' Fate

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Going into the last game of the month, the Twins are an ice-cold 9-17 for the month of August. After two consecutive winning months, which pushed them at and just above .500, the current month month would seem to doom their postseason chances in the weak American League. 

What happened? Well, hitting, pitching and defense and two key injuries. Going to the injuries first, the Twins' two All-Stars have been non-factors since the All-Star break and certainly in the month of August. Both Ryan and Buxton are currently on the Injured List and there was every appearance that they were performing at less than 100% when they were on the field this month. Every team has injuries, but knocking out probably the best two players is a harsh blow.

On the position player side, there were some decent performances. Luke Keaschall has had an excellent month of August and looks like a full-time leadoff hitter. His position and defense? More about that later. Josh Bell has produced 20 RBI this month and has an outside shot at getting 100 RBI. I believe the last time the Twins had a 100 RBI guy was the Bomba Squad year of 2019. Kaelen Culpepper has shown a good bat , hitting some homers and not looking overmatched. Brooks Lee has put together a solid month and is showing himself to be a pretty decent third baseman. We've seen Walker Jenkins for three games and he does look like the real deal. Now for the less positive. Trevor Larnach has had his worst month, Royce Lee has performed at league average at best, and Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini have provided little this month. It seems the team has regressed to the mean when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position. So the hitting has been a mixed bag.

Pitching has been a real disappointment this month. Of the starters, only Zebby Matthews has stepped up consistently. Taj Bradley had a couple of poor outings and hasn't won a game in almost two months. Connor Prielipp had a tough month while Dean Kremer's numbers don't look great, he's been serviceable. Both Prielipp and Kremer seem to lose it pretty fast and part of their bad numbers is the bullpen not stranding runners that the starters put on base.

Early in August, it appeared the bullpen had turned the corner and would actually be an asset. August has reminded us that relievers go from good to bad and bad to good in a hurry. Andrew Morris has lost five games this month and more runs than innings pitched. That comes after he was astonishingly good in July (0.64 ERA). The same story, but not as severe for Kody Funderburk. He allowed one run in July, but six in 11+ innings this month. The new acquisitions started strong, but also ended up on the losing side of the ledger. Closer Yoendrys Gomez lost two games although he is still 100% in save situations. Gomez has allowed 10 hits and seven runs in eight plus innings thus far this month. Probably the least acclaimed bullpen acquisition, Tommy Nance, has been the best, allowing only four runs in 15+ innings since being acquired in late July. Jeff Hoffman hasn't impressed. He has issued eight free passes and eight hits in eight plus innings for the Twins. AJ Minter has been fine as an additional left handed reliever.

Today's thrashing of the Tigers including Walker Jenkins first homer (against a position player) puts a little shine on a you-know-what. Here are the Twins' hitting and pitching numbers for the month of August:

https://www.mlb.com/twins/stats/?split=8

https://www.mlb.com/twins/stats/pitching?split=8

[Squirrel]

While the pragmatist in me agrees with this assessment, the dreamer still believes ‘It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.’ So yes, there’s still a chance.

But they have to win a lot this month. And others in close proximity need to lose a lot.

[bean5302]

February was the month that sealed the Twins' fate.

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The defense in the month of August regressed as well. I would point a finger at two defenders--Keaschall and Culpepper--with much more leniency given to the rookie. Culpepper is a -3 DRS in 18 games at a premium defensive position. He may or may not stick there, but he has the requisite range and arm strength to be at least average. Coming on a big stage in the fringes of a pennant race, it is asking a lot to expect sharp decision making and fundamentally solid play. That said, he has not made several plays that cost runs. Keaschall has been asked to play both right and center field, with little minor league experience and it has shown, particularly in center field. I don't expect him to be even average, but the bar for acceptable on the outfield corners isn't as high as it is for shortstop. I think with time, hard work and experience Keaschall can become an acceptable corner outfielder, with his good speed making up for some poor jumps.