PECOTA LOVES Emmanuel Rodriguez

[arby58]

There was an interesting piece on Baseball Prospectus today, where the author, Craig Goldstein, covered prospects who could break camp after Spring training. The gist of the piece was that MLB's introduction of the Prospect Promotion Incentives has led to more top prospects breaking camp with the big league teams. He then reviewed 5 of the 'typical suspects' who might make it on MLB rosters and what PECOTA thinks of them. 

The first few names were far from surprises, as Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle were MLB's top two prospects, and JJ Wetherholt was number 5. The next two were slightly more surprising, as Carson Benge was 16 and Jett Williams 51. Of course, this is about those with an opportunity to break camp, not simply the best prospects.

Then the author added a 'bonus' pick: Emmanuel Rodriguez. This is what he wrote about him:

BONUS
Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins
117 DRC+ | .238/.356/.410 | Top 101: No. 48

It would be a shock if Rodriguez broke camp with the Twins, but I had to throw him in here because of his outrageous DRC+ projection. PECOTA just doesn’t love rookies this much! Especially ones that swing and miss like he does. But, when he’s healthy enough to take the field, Rodriguez takes plenty of walks, and assembled enough of a Triple-A track record that the model is buying in. He also hits the ball hard when he does make contact, driving an incredible .375 projected BABIP (his career minor-league number is .363). But because he puts so few balls in play, the average is still playing down, but what’s salvaging it is the more aggressive (for PECOTA) slugging projection, which is powered by a projected .718 SLGCON (.812 career). 

I don’t entirely know what to do with a projection this gung-ho, but I had to include it given the optimism from a normally conservative projection system.

[jorgenswest]

Rodriguez and Jenkins are the only viable centerfield options when Buxton is out. Martin or Roden can give him a day but the Twins will need one of them if it is longer.

My roster would have been filled with the upside of those two in the outfield pushing Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B as well as the young remaining starter arms in the pen. That isn’t the direction the Twins went. Oh well. I will be watching regardless.

[bean5302]

Rodriguez doesn't have a lot of comps so the projection tools are going to struggle to fit players like him into a mold. I don't think Emmanuel Rodriguez will ever be a quality MLB player. He's already burned 2 of 3 options and he's never had a PA at the MLB level. That says plenty to me. If he can't make the opening day roster, it's just another ding on his record, but I think he'll get every opportunity to get the call since there's a belief he can cover CF. We'll see how he performs in Spring Training provided he doesn't get hurt again. If the 50% K rate is back, I think his career is already over. If he's able to get the Spring Training K rate down to 35% or lower, he has a shot.

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Rodriguez and Jenkins are the only viable centerfield options when Buxton is out. Martin or Roden can give him a day but the Twins will need one of them if it is longer.

That's why James Outman is still with this organization. He's the most likely fill in CF this season.