101 Walkoff Wins at Target Field: A Statistical Story

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Ty France delivered the 100th walkoff win in Target Field history earlier this month, hammering a game-winning homer against the Royals. It was a milestone moment for the ballpark, and before there was time to reflect on it, the Twins added another the very next day. Rookie Brooks Lee came through with his first career walkoff hit, completing back-to-back wins over Kansas City and pushing the total to 101 walkoff victories at Target Field.

It was the perfect moment to dig into a long-standing idea: a complete look at every walkoff win the Twins have recorded at their home park, and the trends that have shaped them.

How the Twins Walk It Off
The most common walkoff outcome at Target Field is also the most familiar. Of the 101 total walkoff wins, 47 came on singles. Another 30 were walkoff home runs, with the rest spread across a mix of outcomes: 7 doubles, 1 triple, 5 sacrifice flies, 3 walks, 2 hit by pitches, 3 fielder’s choices, 2 errors, and a lone wild pitch.

While many of these were typical baseball endings, a few defied expectations. In 2022, Miguel Sanó hit a sharp line drive to right field against Detroit that turned into two runs scoring, after a throwing error by the catcher. The official scoring credited no RBI and no earned runs. It's the kind of play that’s nearly impossible to explain without video.

Peaks and Valleys by Season
Walkoff totals have varied year to year, with the most coming in 2023, when the Twins recorded 10 walkoff wins. The fewest came in 2019, with just four—which is notable, given that the 2019 team won 101 games. But they also led so many games comfortably that walkoff chances were limited.

The first walkoff at Target Field came in May 2010, when Jason Kubel drove in Joe Mauer with a sacrifice fly to beat the Brewers. The most recent was Lee’s RBI single in, just over 14 years later.

Who Delivers in the Clutch?
Max Kepler leads all Twins players with 11 walkoff hits at Target Field. That's four more than Jorge Polanco, and five more than Brian Dozier. No one else has more than five. Kepler also owns the latest walkoff, a 17th-inning single that beat the Red Sox in 2019.

In total, 50 different players have notched walkoff hits for the Twins. Some are franchise staples. Others are the kinds of names that spark deep memories for diehard fans, including Chris Herrmann, Josmil Pinto, Rene Tosoni, and Ronald Torreyes. Opponents on the Wrong Side of History—or at Least Memory
As expected, the Twins have walked off against their AL Central rivals more than any other teams. They have 14 walkoffs against the White Sox, 13 against the Guardians, and 12 against the Tigers. The most frequent non-division victim is the Red Sox, who have lost seven games at Target Field in walkoff fashion.

On the mound, a few opposing relievers stand out. Liam Hendriks and Gregory Soto have each been walked off three times. Jorge López allowed walkoff hits in back-to-back games in 2022, only to be traded to the Twins later that season. (It turned out the one might have been an omen warning against the other. Alas.)

Game Situations and Notable Moments
Most walkoffs happen with the game tied, and that is true at Target Field as well. Ninety of the 101 walkoff wins came in tie games. The remaining 11 required a comeback, with the most dramatic being Josh Willingham’s three-run home run with two outs in the ninth against Oakland in 2012, turning a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 win. That swing carried a .91 WPA, the largest change in any of the 101 walkoff moments.

Twenty-one of the walkoffs came with the bases loaded, the most common base-out situation. Five ended with sacrifice flies, including the first ever at Target Field. One ended on a wild pitch. A few others came via infield singles or throwing errors that let the winning run score.

What the Numbers Tell Us
Through 14 and a half seasons, Target Field has already seen a wide variety of walkoff wins. Some were delivered by franchise cornerstones. Others came from role players in brief appearances. Some ended standard games. A few came in the 12th, 14th, or 17th inning. Altogether, they paint a picture of a team that has consistently found ways to win late, especially in front of the home crowd.

Walkoff wins will always be remembered for the emotion they create in the moment. But behind that emotion, the numbers tell a story of their own.

The Full List of Target Field Walkoffs

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What’s your favorite walkoff memory at Target Field? Was it a dramatic home run, an unexpected hero, or just a game you happened to be at? Share your thoughts and memories in the comments below.

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[Sjoski]

Nice article.

Every game I watch, I look for something I've never—or rarely—seen before.

The 2022 Miguel Sanó walk-off against Detroit tops the list.

Sanó drives a ball to right. If he doesn't run to second, the bases are loaded with one out. Who knows what happens next?

But Sano just keeps going—straight into a base-running mess.

If the winning run doesn't score, Sano is an easily out at third, because he just keeps going. 

It was classic Sanó: more lucky than good.

But somehow, Detroit out-blundered him. Two runs scored. Game over.

 

[Blyleven2011]

2015 July  , Brian Dozier hit a 3 run homerun to win in the bottom  of the ninth  , the twins were down 6-3 and we scored 5 runs , I think Mauer might of hit a homer in the inning too ...

I remember it well because I was sitting in my recliner and I got up and applauded ( CLAPPED ) the win and said it's about time , IT WAS A CRUMMY SEASON and probably the only walk off that year ...

[The Great Hambino]

Jim Thome walking off the White Sox and making Hawk Harrelson speechless for a whole minute and a half

Sano walking off the Braves by nuking one to dead center which I'm not sure should technically count since it still might not have landed yet

Buxton beating out a routine grounder directly to short as the winning run comes home

That list of all the different walk-offers is a fun trip down memory lane.  Jamey Carroll!  Ryan Doumit!  I'm pretty sure Josmil Pinto is a fake to see if we're paying attention.

[stringer bell]

I was in the park for a Dozier grand slam homer the last game before the All-Star break in 2018 and a Miranda walkoff homer against Josh Hader in 2022. The first game I saw in person this year ended with a Ty France single against the Mets. Other than games I was at, Thome's moon shot against the White Sox was probably the most memorable and hearing the White Sox broadcast later made me smile.

[CoachDW]

Alexi Casilla had two walk-off hits, one of which ended maybe the most memorable game ever played at Target Field, Game 163 against the Tigers. I am not a big fan of Dan Gladden’s radio play-by-play but the guy probably had his best-ever call on that ground ball single into right field that scored Carlos Gomez. To this day, I still get chills hearing it. 

[CoachDW]

I stand corrected. Casilla’s hit was in one of the last games in the MetroDome, not Target Field. I still say Dan Gladden is a poor play-by-play announcer but he nailed that call. 

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, CoachDW said:

I stand corrected. Casilla’s hit was in one of the last games in the MetroDome, not Target Field. I still say Dan Gladden is a poor play-by-play announcer but he nailed that call. 

Correct, it was at the Metrodome. Probably the best regular season game involving the Twins.