AL Central Contenders

[stringer bell]

Before the Memorial Day games start, the AL Central has the best cumulative record in the American League--11 games over .500--and the best run differential (+54) and if the season ended today, the Central would claim all three Wild Cards.

It's way too early to worry about such things, but I have checked BBRef to see what they are saying about playoff chances. Interestingly, the Tigers are given a 99.7% chance of reaching postseason, the Guardians and Royals are at 52.5% and 48.9% respectively and the Twins trail with only a 36.8% chance of being in the playoffs. 

What gives the Twins less of a chance? I presume two factors that work against them are strength of remaining schedule and their record against the rest of the division. Still, they have the second best run differential and are arguably the hottest team in the American League at this point. 

The Astros, currently 28-25, are given a 90.1% chance of advancing to October and division leaders Seattle and New York are also thought to make the postseason tournament. 

From their body of work so far, do you think the Twins can make postseason? Why or why not?

[mnfireman]

If you look at FanGraphs chances of making the play-offs; DET 91.5%, MIN 69.8%, KC 47.5%, CLE 45.7%.

Outside of the AL Central; NYY 96.9%, SEA 74.4%, HOU 62.8%. BOS, TB, TOR & TEX are all around 25%

AL Central remaining SOS; KC .497, CLE .496, MIN .495 and DET .492, essentially a wash.

With Buxton and Wallner due back shortly and Keaschall due back by July 1, I like the teams chances to make the postseason, where anything can happen

[bean5302]

BaseballReference's latest formulas for WAR are a mystery to me. They don't seem to follow any obvious logic so I don't trust them much at this point, but I'm pretty sure you'll find your answer there. BBRef doesn't believe in the Twins' production because of their underlying run generation formulas.

[bean5302]

In regard to the Twins and my thoughts on their playoff chances, I just have no idea with this team. The pitching is going to regress a lot. Fangraphs has the team projected at 86 wins right now, and that's rarely enough to make the playoffs.

What typically happens is a few teams make a second half run as they bolster while some weaker teams sell off. I don't anticipate the Twins making any significant changes at the deadline at all. The team won't be under new ownership by then.

So much of what happens with the Twins depends on other teams both inside and outside of the division. I'd give the Twins a 40% shot maybe?

[Parfigliano]

Make the Playoffs?  Sure if they have another double digit win streak tee'd up.