Vlad Jr. Deal 14 Years $500 mil

[Trov]

I just saw this and my thought was dang that is crazy. I figured he would get a decent deal, but that is crazy long and high pay.  I read it does not include opt out either. First, Vlad Jr. has had stretches of one of the best hitters in the game, but he plays no defense well, even has negative value at first.  He has never had a bWAR over 7, with 6.5 being his highest.  He will be entering what should be his prime years, and it is possible he could still be good hitter late into 30's but I have a feeling the Jays will be regretting this deal for a long time. 

What is worse, is players will be looking at his deal as the new market for players and make it even harder for mid to small market teams retaining their FA long term.  Hopefully players will just see as a one off situation. 

[Mike Sixel]

Part of the reason..... Almost all the guys in his class have already signed extensions! The free agency classes are getting smaller and older.... Therefore, supply is down.....

I'm not defending this. It's more than I'd pay for a guy who can't play defense at 26.... 

[nicksaviking]

WAR adjustments are irrational. It's virtually impossible to get a bWAR over 7.0 at 1st base these days. Mark McGwire did it once, in 1998, Frank Thomas also only once. Freddie Freeman: never. It's a dumb stat that over-emphasizes defense and makes the non-up-the-middle positions nearly meaningless. Bryce Harper played 145 games last year and had a bWAR of only 4.8 despite a .898 OPS. 

I'd be concerned about his year-to-year offensive production as that has had some concerning lows, but he just turned 26, I'm sure he'll provide the same level of defense for the better part of the next decade. Might not be good defense, but it's obviously acceptable if the bat plays. 

37M per year for the best hitters in the game is not a high price in this age of baseball. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

WAR adjustments are irrational. It's virtually impossible to get a bWAR over 7.0 at 1st base these days. Mark McGwire did it once, in 1998, Frank Thomas also only once. Freddie Freeman: never. It's a dumb stat that over-emphasizes defense and makes the non-up-the-middle positions nearly meaningless. Bryce Harper played 145 games last year and had a bWAR of only 4.8 despite a .898 OPS. 

I'd be concerned about his year-to-year offensive production as that has had some concerning lows, but he just turned 26, I'm sure he'll provide the same level of defense for the better part of the next decade. Might not be good defense, but it's obviously acceptable if the bat plays. 

37M per year for the best hitters in the game is not a high price in this age of baseball. 

 

Harper's D>>>>>>>>>>Vlad's D. 

[Trov]

On 4/8/2025 at 11:36 AM, nicksaviking said:

WAR adjustments are irrational. It's virtually impossible to get a bWAR over 7.0 at 1st base these days. Mark McGwire did it once, in 1998, Frank Thomas also only once. Freddie Freeman: never. It's a dumb stat that over-emphasizes defense and makes the non-up-the-middle positions nearly meaningless. Bryce Harper played 145 games last year and had a bWAR of only 4.8 despite a .898 OPS. 

I'd be concerned about his year-to-year offensive production as that has had some concerning lows, but he just turned 26, I'm sure he'll provide the same level of defense for the better part of the next decade. Might not be good defense, but it's obviously acceptable if the bat plays. 

37M per year for the best hitters in the game is not a high price in this age of baseball. 

 

I get that bWAR may be a little defense minded, but I was more getting at his lack of consistent offense as an issue for him long term too.  The price 37 a year if it was for say 7 years would be great deal.  However, he has all the marks of falling off the cliff when he is in his early to mid 30's.  I am saying the length is a huge risk due to his up and down hitting.  He very well may be a great signing, but unlike others that sign their mega deals, he has not had the long term consistent years, or also being an elite defender to go with being elite hitter. 

[bean5302]

The Blue Jays just made their very own Chris Davis contract. I expect this contract to age like Ryan Howard, Chris Davis and Prince Fielder.