weitz41’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint:

[weitz41]

I bit bored and wanted to throw something different from my 1st attempt. So here we go. I want to redo pay roll (under the right sized look) So I'm forced to move Pablo Lopez to start the adjustment. I'm not about to just send him out. I want real value back. Pablo Lopez for Tristan Casas, Blaze Jordan and Luis Guerrero. Add Guerrero to out 40 man. So, we're at 38 of 40. 

Doc Gast is obsessed with a future catcher per BTV. BUT I see one that makes a lot of sense to me. 1st is settled for me with Casas. I have Miranda and Julien with no home. I'm trading Julien to Seatle for Henry Ford. even up. He's my Vasquez replacement in 2026.  Julien goes on to have a great career in Seattle. To many infielders and too few AB for all of them. 

Ok to payroll. So, -21.75 for that Pablo trade. .8 for Casas and .8  for Luis Guerrero plus a minor leaguer. 21.15 Mil available...

I sign Shane Bieber to a 2-year deal 12mil for year 1 and 24 for year two as a club option. No buy outs. he's likely to miss the 1st half. So, 12 Mil for half a season buys me the club option for 24 mil. Relax. Vasquez, Casto and Paddack make the +12 no big deal if we pick it up. 

In fact, we have a lot of payroll available for 2026 if things do (some)/ don't (a lot) work out

Austin Hays is someone I've wanted the Twins to add for a few seasons now. So now that it doesn't cost anything but money, I'm all in. 6.5 Mil to Austin Hays to be our 4th OFer.  By mid-season he'll be our 2nd or 3rd OFer.

21.75-.8-.8-12-6.5. Leaves me with 1.65 Mil I want to trust Cody Funderburk but I'm just not there. Give me the $ for AJ Minter...No then I'll settle on Danny Coulombe.  For 7 mil over 3 years. (2,2,3)

Festa, Matthews, Raya and so on will have to hold their own till Beiber returns. The team as a whole I think is much better. Beiber returning to form is the may be a champ or not even close.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M)
• 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 4th OF: Austin Hays ($6.5M)
• Utility: Willi Castro ($6.20M)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Shane Bieber ($12.00M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($7.50M)
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Danny Coulombe ($2.00M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 1.00% under budget

[thelanges5]

I like the lineup but shed a tear thinking about no more Pablo days 😢

[bean5302]

So I think we can just say you choose any reclamation project for SP1 consider Bieber now signed with the Guardians for 1 yr $10MM + a player option at $16MM for 2026. Lopez for a 1.5-2.0 WAR 1B in Casas plus two edge of PTBNL toss ins is a colossal overpay by the Twins. While Lopez's contract needs to be moved for the payroll capacity to sign Bieber, packaging Larnach with him to get Kyle Teel + Wilyer Abreu back is more efficient way for addressing Twins needs, IMHO.

I think this is probably about an 83 win team. IMHO, Casas is no better than Miranda at 1B, and Miranda's bat doesn't provide big upside at DH. The SP1 scenario is highly likely a significant downgrade from Lopez. Seeing Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Festa, SWR as our rotation for 1/2 a year doesn't inspire me with confidence the Twins would be in a position to claw their way back up in the standings for a playoff run once the hypothetical SP1 returns.

While I had my doubts about Seattle giving up a top 50 MLB prospect (their #1 prospect for Fangraphs, #4 for MLB) for Eddie Julien, I did see on BTV it's a universally liked deal by Seattle and Minnesota folks so I'm in!

I like Hays... years ago. :) I don't see a way he beats out Larnach for LFer duty now, though. Hays was a butcher in the OF last year, and his bat is probably league average-ish. Kinda like what Larnach was vs. what Larnach probably is now?

[MGX]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Casas is no better than Miranda at 1B

LOL, the Twins wish this was true.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, MGX said:

LOL, the Twins wish this was true.

Casas = 0.6 fWAR last year

[MGX]

Casas was injured for a good portion of the season last year. I like Miranda, but if we offered the Red Sox Miranda for Casas they'd laugh & hang up the phone.