Olney: Twins are most surprising team

[Mike Sixel]

The eyeball test says they're better defensively than last year.

 

They eyeball test says the world is flat, too.....I don't think we know yet if this team is better defensively, heck, Willingham can barely move.

 

The OF is worse, the IF is probably better so far. I hope Hicks gets better, and that Arcia moves to LF and someone in in RF.....that would be better than what they have today (eventually).

[PseudoSABR]

They eyeball test says the world is flat, too.....

Compelling counter argument.

[ThePuck]

Compelling counter argument.

 

Not that 'The eyeball test says they're better defensively than last year.' was a compelling argument to begin with...

[Mike Sixel]

Compelling counter argument.

 

It was an attempt at humor that probably did not work as well on line as it did my, very tired, head.

[FanFanatic]

"blessed is he who expects nothing, for he is never disappointed." - Alexander Pope

[PseudoSABR]

Not that 'The eyeball test says they're better defensively than last year.' was a compelling argument to begin with...

It's obviously just some dude's opinion; it doesn't need to be any more than that. By my own eye-test, I think the defense in the infield is much improved; even the catcher play seems improved from both Mauer and Doumit. I don't know if the stats bear that out (or even if stats can substantiate much about defense). Honestly, if lots of people are seeing a better defense (as flawed as each's perception might be), there's probably something to it.

[ThePuck]

Honestly, if lots of people are seeing a better defense (as flawed as each's perception might be), there's probably something to it.

 

As much to it as those seeing the defense as worse. Except that the ones seeing it as worse have things to back it up, besides just their eyes, so really not even as much to it.

[johnnydakota]

To Jr's credit, Correia has been just what the doctor ordered. If only he'd not stopped there we might be looking at a more functional back half of the rotation and (gasp) a contender!

 

Just another case of signing 30 scrubs and 1 having a good season ,Ryan got Lucky ....

[ashbury]

the Twins might have one of the better 3-5 punches around.

 

This is cleverly worded and deserves to be savored.

[ThePuck]

Just another case of signing 30 scrubs and 1 having a good season ,Ryan got Lucky ....

 

Season isn't over yet, and he's cooled off since his fantastic April. I'll give Ryan credit for the Correia signing if he ends up under 4.40 ERA (not that ERA is better than FIP, but to appease some people, I'll go with ERA)

[johnnydakota]

They eyeball test says the world is flat, too.....I don't think we know yet if this team is better defensively, heck, Willingham can barely move.

 

The OF is worse, the IF is probably better so far. I hope Hicks gets better, and that Arcia moves to LF and someone in in RF.....that would be better than what they have today (eventually).

 

Hate to disagree, but the world is square, hence the saying the 4 corners of the world..=)

[johnnydakota]

And I dont give Terry credit for signing K.C., no one in there t

right mind could expect , Correia to improve this much ....It all comes down to being lucky.Jason Marquis has better career stats and how did he work out for us?

 

I to want to wait till august or september for a final evaluation , but my sombrero is off to K.C for his 1st half,but his career history says he is expected to decline in the up coming weeks

[drjim]

Season isn't over yet, and he's cooled off since his fantastic April. I'll give Ryan credit for the Correia signing if he ends up under 4.40 ERA (not that ERA is better than FIP, but to appease some people, I'll go with ERA)

 

Generous of you to use the stat that measures how many runs actually scored.

[ashbury]

Without looking at the numbers, I'd guess that the OF is killing them this season. Hicks/Parmelee is a massive downgrade from Span/Revere.

 

Doumit's been in the OF at a higher rate of innings than last year too, and Willingham's RF/9 is lower than last year. Death by multiple cuts.

[Dave T]

And I dont give Terry credit for signing K.C., no one in there t

right mind could expect , Correia to improve this much ....It all comes down to being lucky.Jason Marquis has better career stats and how did he work out for us?

 

I to want to wait till august or september for a final evaluation , but my sombrero is off to K.C for his 1st half,but his career history says he is expected to decline in the up coming weeks

If Bill Smith signed Correia, I would agree he got lucky. Terry Ryan is a better judge of pitching than you or I, and IMO he didn't get lucky, he was just doing his job. What I want to know from Terry is, what happened with Worley?

 

The Twins pitching in the past month has really improved. OK, from dismal to average, but still, I am surprised at the improvement. I am going to take Olney's tweet as a prediction. If the Twins starting pitching continues to improve, and the set-up guys in the bullpen (Pressley and Burton) get their mojo back, and Morneau finds his home-run stroke, this could be a fun second half of the season.

[DaveW]

In re: to Worley, he was coming off a pretty significant injury so it was always a large risk/unknown. The real star of that trade was May IMO since he has some real nice upside, anything from Worley would just be a bonus (I still have faith he is decent again down the road) and keep in mind we got all of this for basically a 4th OF in Revere.

[ThePuck]

If Bill Smith signed Correia, I would agree he got lucky. Terry Ryan is a better judge of pitching than you or I, and IMO he didn't get lucky, he was just doing his job.

 

Are we the barometer to compare Ryan to or are 29 other GMs the barometer? In any event, HE didn't even see Corriea. HE said so himself. So HE didn't judge Correia at all.

[DaveW]

Are we the barometer to compare Ryan to or are 29 other GMs the barometer? In any event, HE didn't even see Corriea. HE said so himself. So HE didn't judge Correia at all.

 

So if a player struggles or doesn't work out it's Terry Ryan's fault, but if the player does well or exceeds expectations Terry Ryan just got "lucky" or had nothing to do with it?

 

Got it.

[howieramone1406390264]

Are we the barometer to compare Ryan to or are 29 other GMs the barometer? In any event, HE didn't even see Corriea. HE said so himself. So HE didn't judge Correia at all.

Source?

[ThePuck]

So if a player struggles or doesn't work out it's Terry Ryan's fault, but if the player does well or exceeds expectations Terry Ryan just got "lucky" or had nothing to do with it?

 

Got it.

 

Sure, just point me to the post where I say anything remotely like that. The post you're replying to certinaly doesn't. My post simply points to the fact that he didn't scout Correia prior to signing him, which counters the statement 'Terry Ryan is a better judge of pitching than you or I' when talking about Ryan getting Correia. HE didn't judge Correia, his scouts did.

[ThePuck]

Source?

 

I can find it if you like, but it's common knowledge that after the signing, and the backlash that came from it, he said he didn't see him. He said he hadn't scouted him and that he was trusting his scouts who said he's better than his numbers say. That whole situation has been discussed over and over again.

 

Here's one:

 

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.

 

I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him.

[howieramone1406390264]

I can find it if you like, but it's common knowledge that after the signing, and the backlash that came from it, he said he didn't see him. He said he hadn't scouted him and that he was trusting his scouts who said he's better than his numbers say. That whole situation has been discussed over and over again.

 

Here's one:

 

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.

 

I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him.

You're confusing see him pitch in person with judging him. IMHO Ryan made the final judgement.

[ThePuck]

You're confusing see him pitch in person with judging him. IMHO Ryan made the final judgement.

 

 

 

Oh my God...okay.

[Willihammer]

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.

 

I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him.

 

 

As opposed to Pelfrey. How do you scout a TJ?

 

I didn't have a quibble with taking a 4m flyer on him. Or trading my favorite player for a fringe 5th starter with 2 pitches and taking a flyer on him. My gripe was in penciling those guys into the 3 and 1 spot in your rotation well before the end of free agency, especially when DIamond was coming off a 3rd elbow surgery and Gibson a 4th.

 

Thank God Correia has worked out, because spots 2-5 have have actually been worse than last year's rotation.

[PseudoSABR]

[Terry Ryan] said he hadn't scouted him and that he was trusting his scouts who said he's better than his numbers say. That whole situation has been discussed over and over again.

I'm not sure how you think General Manager job works. But if you're unwilling to credit TR for signing Correia (or judging it to be a good idea to do so), than you can't hold him responsible for any decision he's ever made (to give credit or blame). I imagine there's always someone within the front office with closer ties to individual players and transactions than the GM.

[ThePuck]

I'm not sure how you think General Manager job works. But if you're unwilling credit TR for signing Correia (or judging it to be a good idea to do so), than you can't hold him responsible for any decision he's ever made (to give credit or blame). I imagine there's always someone within the front office with closer ties to individual players and transactions than the GM.

 

Um, did you SEE my earlier post on this thread? I said I would give him credit for the signing if he ended up with an ERA under 4.40. What about that is me saying I wouldn't give him credit if he does well?

 

What I'm saying is Ryan didn't judge his abilities, his talent. He signed him, but he went by what others judged his abilities to be (his scouts telling him he is better than his numbers). I also never said there was anything wrong with that approach. All I'm saying is if someone says, in regards to Correia, that Ryan is a better judge of pitching than him or others, well, he wasn't the one who went out there and judged him. He signed him, but others judged his ability and he signed off.

 

Maybe it'd be best if you read posts more carefully and followed conversations along closer.

[johnnydakota]

Early in the spring Ryan was distancing himself from the signing, saying others looked at Correia, not himself, he was just going on the others word, now you want to give him credit for being a good judge of players. He signed Correia, and hoped for the best, to me thats called getting lucky, how has his other signings gone, wheres Harden, Perez, how is Pelfrey working out....so 25% of his signings worked out, Yup give that man an extention

[ThePuck]

Generous of you to use the stat that measures how many runs actually scored.

 

ERA measures earned runs allowed, not runs allowed, since you want to play the snark game. ERA is based on a lot of things (like the defense behind you and the scorers definition of error). I like FIP better. It goes off things pitchers have actual control over. ERA is better than Wins/losses satt for pitchers, but (like errors and fielding %) still has it's flaws.

 

Thanks though.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm not going to build this off a quote, to avoid being misinterpreted, and this is not a response to anyone in particular, but it seems to me that the whole job of the general manager is to find those hidden values that haven't been recognized yet, i.e. finding those players who actually are better than their numbers and can help the club - which does describe Correia, at least so far this season. So, I give Ryan great credit for pulling the trigger on this one.

 

And there is nothing wrong with relying on your people's judgment if you have come to trust that judgment based on past experience. Since we don't know to whom Ryan is referring, and what that person's past track record is, I'm going to assume that Ryan had reason to trust this person's judgment and act on it. Again, that's not a failure but a sign of organizational strength. Indeed, if Ryan has people whose judgment he doesn't trust there should be serious questions about whether that person is in the right position or even belongs with the organization.

[ThePuck]

I'm not going to build this off a quote, to avoid being misinterpreted, and this is not a response to anyone in particular, but it seems to me that the whole job of the general manager is to find those hidden values that haven't been recognized yet, i.e. finding those players who actually are better than their numbers and can help the club - which does describe Correia, at least so far this season. So, I give Ryan great credit for pulling the trigger on this one.

 

And there is nothing wrong with relying on your people's judgment if you have come to trust that judgment based on past experience. Since we don't know to whom Ryan is referring, and what that person's past track record is, I'm going to assume that Ryan had reason to trust this person's judgment and act on it. Again, that's not a failure but a sign of organizational strength. Indeed, if Ryan has people whose judgment he doesn't trust there should be serious questions about whether that person is in the right person or even belongs with the organization.

 

Exactly, which is why I never said trusting others when it came to Correia was a bad thing. I know you said you weren't referring to anyone, but just making my point clear.