Service Time

[stringer bell]

baseball-reference.com provides an interesting factoid for all active players-their current service time. Service time is important in figuring when a player will reach free agency and when they are eligible for arbitration. Six full years of service time are required for free agency and something less than three full years is the standard for arbitration. This year, Alex Kirilloff will qualify for arbitration as a "Super 2" with 2 years and 141 days of major league service time. Royce Lewis is at 1 year and 142 days, so it is likely he will be a Super 2 a year from now. Here are service time numbers for players who weren't on the Twins roster for the full season in 2023 in years and days:

Alcalá 4.014. Balazovic 0.065, Funderburk 0.035, Headrick 0,066, Ober 2.093, Sands 1.017, Stewart 2.093, Varland 0.108, Winder 1.065 Woods Richardson 0.006, Julien 0.135, Lewis 1.142, Kirilloff 2.141, Miranda 1.118, Larnach 2.014, Wallner 0.111                                             

Other guys in the arbitration cycle:  Duran 2.000, Jax 2.091, Ryan 2.033, Thielbar 5.131, Jeffers 3.089, Farmer 5.129, Castro 4.017 and Gordon 2.136.

From the Twins point of view, they have Wallner, Miranda, and Varland in ideal spots--not eligible for Super 2 and not eligible for free agency until they've almost reached seven years of service. It would appear that unless he is banished to the minors, Julien would get Super 2 status after the 2025 season and the same would be true for Lewis a year earlier. This might fuel extension discussion with Lewis soon. If anyone got the short end last year, it would be Ober. He won't qualify for Super 2 this year, but if he had the forty-two or so days that he was optioned to St. Paul back, he would be very close. 

Lewis, Alcalá and Kirilloff (also Byron Buxton) are examples of guys who have accrued a lot of service time while on the injured list. Alcalá has hurled 105 innings (in 90 games), but has over four years of service. Kirilloff has just over 700 plate appearances in almost three years of service, and Lewis has less than 300 PAs in almost two years of service time. It pays to suffer one's injuries when on the major league roster. 

                                                                                                                                                                          

 

[DJL44]

After two seasons is usually the sweet spot for negotiating contract extensions. The Twins should make it a priority to give Jhoan Duran a long-term deal this offseason. Ryan and Ober are each controlled until age 31 which lessens the urgency to give them a guaranteed deal.

For offensive players a 3 year contract extension with a team option for Jeffers makes sense and Willi Castro might sign a team-friendly extension since he has never really had a big payday.

[Brandon]

I think it would make sense to give some cost certainty extensions and maybe front load a few of these for less expense down the road for players through their arbitration years and either 1 year of free agency, option year for first year of free agency or none.  Players for this type of extension would be Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jax maybe Jeffers.  Jeffers will be 30 when he is a free agent so I doubt he wants to lock in money beyond that date before unless it’s an extension that takes him to age 34/35.  And there is no need for that.  
beyond that I would do a 2 year contract for Theilbar.  I doubt he wants to go anywhere else so a 2 year 8 million total extension 3 year 1 and 5 year 2 or 3.5/ 4.5. Or add an option.  3.5/ 3.5/ with 1 million buyout or 4 million in year 3.  For either a 2 year 8 million or 3 year 11 million.  

Lewis not sure how I do this one but an 8 -10 year extension.  Maybe with an opt out or incentives or escalators or similar to the contract Julio signed in Seattle. But something with a lot of cash. 
 

Would Kepler and the Twins agree to a 3 or 4 year extension?  13-15 million per season????