Two Reasons Why Sonny Gray Could Accept the Qualifying Offer

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I think what you are trying to say is that the per $ reaches in this theoretical value over $8M/WAR.  Did you do the math? 

No, Fangraphs did the math.

What Are Teams Paying Per WAR in Free Agency? | FanGraphs Baseball

[Major League Ready]

54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, Fangraphs did the math.

What Are Teams Paying Per WAR in Free Agency? | FanGraphs Baseball

Not that math.  Did you check to see if the numbers made any sense as I did in the example I gave. You are making a claim that teams assume declining performance.  I provided a reasonable model that disproves your theory that teams expect this to result in paying these players $8M per WAR.  The assumptions were very straight forward.  Do you disagree with the assumptions or are you just ignoring anything that does not align with your narrative?  Do you think they are assuming these players are going to produce next to nothing after the half-way through the contract.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you think they are assuming these players are going to produce next to nothing after the half-way through the contract.

If they aren't making that assumption with contracts that go out to age 40 then they're really stupid. Do you think major league baseball general managers are stupid?

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they aren't making that assumption with contracts that go out to age 40 then they're really stupid. Do you think major league baseball general managers are stupid?

Let's just drop it.  . You are speaking in vague generalities about a very specific measure.  You are not willing to give an example as I have which shows your position is flawed.  Show me where the assumptions used or wrong instead of just ignoring it and continuing with rhetoric  And no, they don't go into a deal assuming they are getting nothing for 5 years.  They assume it will decline.

[Fatbat]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:41 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently.  The first is in CF.  Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole.

The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots.  Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay.  Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day.

BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary.  Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive.  This is where our trade capital could come in handy.   Just no more Mahle’s…..

Varland/Festa et al can fill a roll for the Twins. I would only take Gray back on the QO but I bet he will be pitching sown south in 2024.