Game 3 Starter Home Road Splits Should not be Ignored!

[Trov]

I know this has been discussed a ton, but I wanted to point out some things that have not been discussed much as to who to go with game 3.  The discussion has mainly been Ryan versus Maeda, with some talk about Ober.  Most talk is Ober is not the guy because of recent slide, most think due to never pitching this many innings in a season before.  When you look at his numbers in second half, he has given up more HR, and his walk/K rate is much worse.  I would not run him out for a game 3 deciding game. 

I for awhile thought I would start Maeda because he is the vet, and has been on a bit better run of late.  He also tends to not give up as many HR as Ryan has.  Ryan could get blown up quickly.  However, after looking at the home road split my mind got changed.  Joe Ryan has 13 home starts and 14 road starts.  Maeda has 8 home starts and 12 road starts.  Ryan has put up much better numbers at home.  He more K's at home, despite 1 less game.  He gives up less HR per 9 at home. Batting average, On base percentage, and slugging allowed is all better at home, but a wide margin. Why is this, not sure have not done that deep of a dive, but the number sure look like something is better for him at Target Field.  If we assume he is going to be 3rd or 4th starter, that means if we go to 3 games in first round, he will either start game 3 at home in round 1, or if we advance game 1 in second round on the road, and Maeda would do the reverse.

When you look at Maeda's splits, he has better road numbers than home.  His slash numbers are about as reverse for the road and in line with what Ryan does at Target Field than when Maeda is away from it.  These are some extreme splits for whatever reason Maeda pitches much better away than at home. So to maximize Ryan and Maeda, we should have Ryan pitch game 3 if needed, and Maeda would pitch game 1 in second round.  

Now ideally we win in 2 games, then I run Maeda out for game 1 in second round, and hopefully whoever is game 1 starter in first round, assuming Lopez, will be on enough rest for game 2, and then Ryan could pitch game 4 at home, maximizing that split again.  With how extreme Maeda's and Ryan's splits are I feel like they cannot be ignored and we should ride with them.  There may be other reasons to make the call, but I hope the team does look at the home road splits and unless they know of a good reason why they are so extreme and they would be negated by other factors, it should be part of decision making. 

[mnfireman]

As the rotation sits right now, Lopez is on track for Game 1, Gray for Game 2 and Ryan for Game 3, unless the team skips Maeda's last start, which projects to be the last game of the regular season.

If the team skips Ober's projected start on Tuesday and moves everyone else up, Monday's day off keeps them on regular rest, they can have Ober pitch the last game of the regular season, and Lopez, Gray and Ryan have an extra day of rest for the WC round, and Maeda would be on normal rest for Game 3, so Rocco's choice for Game 3.

If the team wins the WC round, Lopez and Gray would both be on short rest to start Games 1 & 2, but both Ryan and Maeda would be available. If they win in 2, its Rocco's choice between the two, if they win in 3, whoever didn't pitch Game 3 would start Game 1.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Trov said:

I know this has been discussed a ton, but I wanted to point out some things that have not been discussed much as to who to go with game 3.  The discussion has mainly been Ryan versus Maeda, with some talk about Ober.  Most talk is Ober is not the guy because of recent slide, most think due to never pitching this many innings in a season before.  When you look at his numbers in second half, he has given up more HR, and his walk/K rate is much worse.  I would not run him out for a game 3 deciding game. 

I for awhile thought I would start Maeda because he is the vet, and has been on a bit better run of late.  He also tends to not give up as many HR as Ryan has.  Ryan could get blown up quickly.  However, after looking at the home road split my mind got changed.  Joe Ryan has 13 home starts and 14 road starts.  Maeda has 8 home starts and 12 road starts.  Ryan has put up much better numbers at home.  He more K's at home, despite 1 less game.  He gives up less HR per 9 at home. Batting average, On base percentage, and slugging allowed is all better at home, but a wide margin. Why is this, not sure have not done that deep of a dive, but the number sure look like something is better for him at Target Field.  If we assume he is going to be 3rd or 4th starter, that means if we go to 3 games in first round, he will either start game 3 at home in round 1, or if we advance game 1 in second round on the road, and Maeda would do the reverse.

When you look at Maeda's splits, he has better road numbers than home.  His slash numbers are about as reverse for the road and in line with what Ryan does at Target Field than when Maeda is away from it.  These are some extreme splits for whatever reason Maeda pitches much better away than at home. So to maximize Ryan and Maeda, we should have Ryan pitch game 3 if needed, and Maeda would pitch game 1 in second round.  

Now ideally we win in 2 games, then I run Maeda out for game 1 in second round, and hopefully whoever is game 1 starter in first round, assuming Lopez, will be on enough rest for game 2, and then Ryan could pitch game 4 at home, maximizing that split again.  With how extreme Maeda's and Ryan's splits are I feel like they cannot be ignored and we should ride with them.  There may be other reasons to make the call, but I hope the team does look at the home road splits and unless they know of a good reason why they are so extreme and they would be negated by other factors, it should be part of decision making. 

In my mind it was Maeda for the 3rd game of the Playoffs, regardless of where. Ober then being the 4th starter.

Your analysis on location splits is obviously valid and am sure management will consider.

Overall, I had been thinking Ryan was the best of our lower 3 starters to be used in the Pen. Uses fastball lots and might gain a couple ticks only going one or two innings in relief?

If your numbers are what you say they are, I agree that Ryan should be considered for a home start in one of the first 2 series.

[Trov]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

In my mind it was Maeda for the 3rd game of the Playoffs, regardless of where. Ober then being the 4th starter.

Your analysis on location splits is obviously valid and am sure management will consider.

Overall, I had been thinking Ryan was the best of our lower 3 starters to be used in the Pen. Uses fastball lots and might gain a couple ticks only going one or two innings in relief?

If your numbers are what you say they are, I agree that Ryan should be considered for a home start in one of the first 2 series.

I get the logic in this, and if the home road splits were not so far with Maeda and Ryan I normally would not care.  Ober for example has little difference to care where he pitches, but with the other two they are very different.  As I said, without looking deeper to explain why, it is something to look into for the decision makers.  It could be when the majority of the bad split was, for example was most of the bad starts for Ryan when he was hurt on the road, which would explain something, but a quick review does not look that is case, as he only had 3 road games versus 4 home games during that stretch too. 

Point is, for a team that uses so much data, they better be looking at that and figuring out is there an advantage to pitching Ryan at home versus the road, and Maeda on road versus home?