Twins Fantasy Fix: A Final Charge for the Offense

[Mike Rose]

As we near the end of the regular season, Minnesota hitters are showing some signs of life for fantasy players.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are 6-3 in September, and the offense has been a big reason why. Minnesota is averaging 6.8 runs per game this month, which included a 20-run outburst against Cleveland. 

There are a few guys fantasy players should focus on while the offense is hot. Carlos Correa (more on him below) is finally looking like himself, Royce Lewis has become a force at the plate and Alex Kirilloff is back at the party. The strong offensive performance raises the late-season outlooks of other Minnesota hitters as well, particularly Max Kepler, who has been locked in pretty much the entire second half and typically occupies a key lineup spot. We’ll explore the offense’s outlook for the week ahead in a bit more depth below.

Let’s now take a look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also highlight some matchups to target and avoid this week.

Twins Injury Updates
Jorge Polanco
Expected return: This week
Polanco was placed on the bereavement list Sunday and will be away from the team for a few days. Gilberto Celestino was recalled from St. Paul to fill Polanco’s spot on the roster, but the former should be able to return soon, and he’s been performing well at the plate recently, too.

Byron Buxton
Expected return: September
Buxton’s return remains a bit of a mystery. He was removed from his second rehab game on Sept. 1 with soreness in his right knee. Buxton has since been officially pulled from his rehab stint, and while it appears like a significant setback, the Twins haven’t ruled out his return this season.

Michael A. Taylor
Expected return: September
Taylor remains out with a hamstring strain. He’s hopeful to return soon, but Willi Castro will continue filling in most of the time in center field until then.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: September
Stewart tossed a 20-pitch bullpen session last week and felt good afterward. It’s unclear if a rehab assignment will follow or if the righty will continue to toss bullpens. Stewart could slot in as a key setup option if he’s able to return before the end of the year. 

Chris Paddack
Expected return: Late September
Paddack began a rehab assignment last week, tossing 54 pitches in his first game with Fort Myers. The righty is aiming for a Sept. 22 return to the majors, though he’ll likely work in a bullpen role instead of as a starter. 

Stock Rising: Carlos Correa
ESPN ownership: 70%
Late-season Carlos seems like officially a thing. The shortstop is batting .343 this month with two home runs and six RBI in nine games. Last year, as the Twins’ playoff hopes faded, Correa still batted .355 in the season’s final month with seven home runs and 19 RBI. If Correa gets on a roll like that, he could make the difference in many fantasy leagues down the stretch. 

Stock Falling: Joey Gallo
ESPN ownership: 3%
Gallo was pretty much already a fantasy afterthought, but he’s probably now fully off the radar for the rest of the year. He was placed on the injured list Friday with a foot contusion, which was convenient for the Twins with Kirilloff returning the same day. Whether Gallo is seriously hurt or not, it seems unlikely that he resurfaces with Minnesota unless there are more injuries. Gallo should not be on any fantasy rosters at this point.

Prospect Spotlight: David Festa (Triple-A St. Paul)
Festa was promoted to Triple-A at the end of August and he’s been good in two appearances for the Saints, allowing three earned runs across 9 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The righty is one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and while he’s unlikely to make noise for the team this year, he could push for a rotation spot to begin 2024.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games vs Tampa (Tyler Glasnow, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley)
4 Games at Chicago White Sox (Jose Urena, Jesse Scholtens, Dylan Cease, Touki Toussaint)
Minnesota has a big test with Tampa coming to town, followed by a matchup with the struggling White Sox. For both Minnesota pitchers and hitters, I’m focusing on the Chicago matchups, but there are some avenues to potentially exploit with the Rays.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers
Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are each slated to start twice. Both have been solid all season, and they should be locked into fantasy lineups this week.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Glasnow is the one spot I really don’t like this week, as he’s posted a solid 2.98 ERA so far and is coming off of a 13-strikeout performance. However, old friend Littell and Bradley are way less imposing, with the latter coming into the game with an ERA north of 5.00. Neither player has much of a history against the Twins, though you could definitely consider Minnesota stacks against the middling arms.

The Chicago matchups look very enticing across the board. Urena has a career ERA of 4.90 and it’s been above 5.00 each of the last four seasons. Scholtens is 1-8 with a 4.38 ERA. Cease has struggled lately and has an ERA just a notch below 5.00. And Toussaint has a career ERA above 5.00 and hasn’t been much better this year. You could justify a Minnesota stack in any of these spots. Cease is the pitcher the Twins have seen the most, and Kepler has taken him deep three times in 25 career at-bats.

Which Minnesota hitters do you expect the most from down the stretch? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[Brandon]

Testa won’t or shouldn’t be in the starting rotation averaging 4 innings a start.  Could he be a multi-inning reliever for bulk innings?  
Todays game didn’t help the offense either.  0 runs.  Though Lopez had a great day pitching 8 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts.