Rumor: Braves Add 2 Relievers

[Seth Stohs]

Atlanta's bullpen has been solid much of the season, but they are looking to bolster it with a couple of fairly minor moves on Monday. Do these moves tell us anything about the trade market for relievers? 

They received RHP Pierce Johnson from the Rockies in exchange for RHPs Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon. Johnson was terrible after being named the Rockies closer, but he's been pretty solid since moving out of that role. He was good for a few years in San Diego previously. The cost? A Double-A reliever (Vodnik) and a AA/AAA starter (Gordon). Vodnik is 23 and has 25 walks and 56 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings at AA. Gordon is 25 and has split the season between AA and AAA. At AA, he's 4-5 with a 4.61 ERA. He has 15 walks to go with 55 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings. In 6 games (5 starts) in AAA, he's 1-4 with a 8.28 ERA. He has 10 walks and 21 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. 

In the second deal, the Braves acquired lefty Taylor Hearn (former Twins draft pick) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for cash considerations. Hearn is 28 and was in his 5th season with the Rangers. He has just four appearances with Texas this year and has been pitching at Triple-A. He has shown some glimpses at times of some pretty good stuff, but he's walked over 4 batters per nine innings in his career. 

This comes the day after the Braves claimed RHP Yonny Chirinos off of waivers from the Rays. He's been a starter and a reliever for Tampa this season and can be solid. 

These are both pretty minor deals, but it shows that teams are looking to create depth on the mound and in the bullpen. What does this mean for the Twins? Probably nothing, but who knows?  Dereck Rodriguez was DFAd by Atlanta to make room for Hearn, so they could bring him back again. 

I think the return on Johnson is more indicative of what the Twins might be willing to give up for a decent set up man. The Hearn deal just says that there are some intriguing arms out there who have had their flaws that you can try to get for little and then have depth. 

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The Twins have already said they want another reliever,  however,  if everyone comes back healthy we might actually dare I say have a fairly stacked bullpen.  Balazovic has been a nice surprise had in Stewart, Thielbar and possibly Alacala and we seem to have plenty of arms.  You likely need another above average arm to do well in the post season.  We will see who the Twins target and if they can get anything done.  Likely not an all in deal like last year.  

[Rosterman]

I wuld not balk at adding anothger proven "closer" type arm, depending on the cost. But the Twins, if they feel Thielbar and Stewart are coming back, have an embarrassment of riches in the works.

I'm more worried about how they work the roster if they have to worry about workloads for Ober, Gray, Ryan in particular. Where do they go? Bullpen? Shut down and shuffled back to the minors? Traded (Gray) to become someone else's problem.

I feel good the Twins got a decent look at Varland, and although his St. Paul stats aren't stunning, doesn't mean he can't pitch in the majors. Headrick is also a plus. 3-4 innings for the rest of the season would be wonderful in any appearances. We forget that Woods Richardson and Henriquez, along with Winder, are still in the mix.

Who goes. Who stays. That is the question.

[TopGunn#22]

I know it's sacrilegious to suggest this, but Sonny Gray has been regressing to his mean for some time now.  I would make a play for Tigers LH Eduardo Rodriguez who is signed for 3 more seasons after this and auction Sonny to the highest bidder to replace prospect capital.  Ed. Rod gives the Twins an effective LH starter for the rest of this season and future years.  His cost going forward is fixed.  He's younger than Gray.  

The Twins have some firepower poised to return to their bullpen.  Stewart, paired with Balazovic is something I'm looking forward to seeing.  Theilbar is as steady as they come.  I'm not counting on anything from Alcala at this point.  Jorge Lopez is a key.  He's got tremendous stuff.  He just needs the confidence to throw it. I wish he would just use his fastball more. He's a total mystery outing to outing at this point.  I never thought I'd type this...but Pagan has been pretty darn good for several weeks.  Could he also be gaining the confidence to go with his "stuff" ??  Jorge Lopez and Pagan gaining confidence through success along with Stewart, Balazovic, Moran and Jax leading up to Duran is a pretty good BP.  What other arm could they possibly add?  There are a number of them available. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

57 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I know it's sacrilegious to suggest this, but Sonny Gray has been regressing to his mean for some time now.  I would make a play for Tigers LH Eduardo Rodriguez who is signed for 3 more seasons after this and auction Sonny to the highest bidder to replace prospect capital.  Ed. Rod gives the Twins an effective LH starter for the rest of this season and future years.  His cost going forward is fixed.  He's younger than Gray.  

The Twins have some firepower poised to return to their bullpen.  Stewart, paired with Balazovic is something I'm looking forward to seeing.  Theilbar is as steady as they come.  I'm not counting on anything from Alcala at this point.  Jorge Lopez is a key.  He's got tremendous stuff.  He just needs the confidence to throw it. I wish he would just use his fastball more. He's a total mystery outing to outing at this point.  I never thought I'd type this...but Pagan has been pretty darn good for several weeks.  Could he also be gaining the confidence to go with his "stuff" ??  Jorge Lopez and Pagan gaining confidence through success along with Stewart, Balazovic, Moran and Jax leading up to Duran is a pretty good BP.  What other arm could they possibly add?  There are a number of them available. 

I disagree 100%.  Gray is a workhorse, and I doubt someone will overpay in trade capital,  however I strongly think Sonny will not retire and and the Twins can get another #1 draft pick for him in the 2024 draft.  That is tremendous value.  Essentially you are able to pick a player like a Soto or Petty.  We are already at about a 6 WAR from Gray for the 2 seasons so far.  A 6 WAR and #1 draft pick is a very good return.   Petty has had ups and downs,  was shut down for 2 months to start the year.  He has been doing very good at A+ ball.  Even still Petty has to be a #1 or high #2 pitcher in MLB to offset the value the Twins got for Gray.  As of now this is a trade with the Twins ahead but may be a trade where both teams win.  

I think we have 6 arms moving forward with Keuchel coming up to help the workload moving forward or take a full spot if someone were to get injured.  I really think the Twins have plenty of arms to do well in the post season.  

As to RP,  I am content standing pat as well,  however if a deal presents itself to add value to the team I am all for it.  

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I disagree 100%.  Gray is a workhorse, and I doubt someone will overpay in trade capital,  however I strongly think Sonny will not retire and and the Twins can get another #1 draft pick for him in the 2024 draft.  That is tremendous value.  Essentially you are able to pick a player like a Soto or Petty.  We are already at about a 6 WAR from Gray for the 2 seasons so far.  A 6 WAR and #1 draft pick is a very good return.   Petty has had ups and downs,  was shut down for 2 months to start the year.  He has been doing very good at A+ ball.  Even still Petty has to be a #1 or high #2 pitcher in MLB to offset the value the Twins got for Gray.  As of now this is a trade with the Twins ahead but may be a trade where both teams win.  

I think we have 6 arms moving forward with Keuchel coming up to help the workload moving forward or take a full spot if someone were to get injured.  I really think the Twins have plenty of arms to do well in the post season.  

As to RP,  I am content standing pat as well,  however if a deal presents itself to add value to the team I am all for it.  

I'm not in favor or trading Gray, but I don't think he's a workhorse, he pitches fewer innings per start than Ryan, Lopez and Ober. And for good reason, he does start to wear down earlier in games. He hasn't gone 7 innings since April. 

It's also not exactly a 1st round pick they get, it comes after the first round, something like pick 33-40. But that's only if Gray signs for 50M+. Say teams shy away from his age and he only gets 2 years at 20M each, than the Twins pick would come AFTER the second round. 

That said, if the Twins traded Gray and got a controllable young starter in return that could be plugged into the 5th spot into the rotation right now, I'd listen.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not in favor or trading Gray, but I don't think he's a workhorse, he pitches fewer innings per start than Ryan, Lopez and Ober. And for good reason, he does start to wear down earlier in games. He hasn't gone 7 innings since April. 

It's also not exactly a 1st round pick they get, it comes after the first round, something like pick 33-40. But that's only if Gray signs for 50M+. Say teams shy away from his age and he only gets 2 years at 20M each, than the Twins pick would come AFTER the second round. 

That said, if the Twins traded Gray and got a controllable young starter in return that could be plugged into the 5th spot into the rotation right now, I'd listen.

I think we have enough of those in the system right now.  Give me a pick in the 29-34 range. It comes before the competitive balance.  Unless he falls off a cliff he will get a 3 year deal for over 50 mil.  That is calculation of nearly a 5 war over the contract.  He will be near a 4 WAR this year.  Now if he is serious about retiring this is all moot.  Now I don't think next years draft will be as strong as this one, but in that range this year you have Soto and White. Even still you can find a very nice prospect that is worth more that a 4-5 mlb pitcher.  The below is from a cardinals website. 

Sonny Gray -  

Sonny Gray has been very consistent in his career. He sports a 3.52 ERA, a 119 ERA+, a 3.61 FIP, and a 1.216 WHIP. He strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings. He is currently in one of the best seasons of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Through 99.2 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 149 ERA+, and has given up a total of 3 home runs in 18 starts.

He will be 34 for all of next year, and it's reasonable to assume he will garner a lot of attention from a variety of teams. Pitchers with a similar track record and age who have recently been free agents include Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jose Quintana. All three of these players signed for an AAV of around $20 million with a contract length of three years.

There will be fewer high-end starters on the market this upcoming season compared to last season, so expect these mid-range starters to earn more money than last year's mid-range starters. Gray's age is hurting the potential length of his contract in the end.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV)

[nicksaviking]

29 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I think we have enough of those in the system right now.  Give me a pick in the 29-34 range. It comes before the competitive balance.  Unless he falls off a cliff he will get a 3 year deal for over 50 mil.  That is calculation of nearly a 5 war over the contract.  He will be near a 4 WAR this year.  Now if he is serious about retiring this is all moot.  Now I don't think next years draft will be as strong as this one, but in that range this year you have Soto and White. Even still you can find a very nice prospect that is worth more that a 4-5 mlb pitcher.  The below is from a cardinals website. 

Sonny Gray -  

Sonny Gray has been very consistent in his career. He sports a 3.52 ERA, a 119 ERA+, a 3.61 FIP, and a 1.216 WHIP. He strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings. He is currently in one of the best seasons of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Through 99.2 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 149 ERA+, and has given up a total of 3 home runs in 18 starts.

He will be 34 for all of next year, and it's reasonable to assume he will garner a lot of attention from a variety of teams. Pitchers with a similar track record and age who have recently been free agents include Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jose Quintana. All three of these players signed for an AAV of around $20 million with a contract length of three years.

There will be fewer high-end starters on the market this upcoming season compared to last season, so expect these mid-range starters to earn more money than last year's mid-range starters. Gray's age is hurting the potential length of his contract in the end.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV)

That contract could be accurate, but that bolded part is absolutely wrong. Verlander was the best free agent pitcher last year, and he was only a free agent in name because he had his mind made up to two locations by the time the season was over. Bassitt and Eovaldi were a bit younger than Gray, but similar, but there are better pitchers this off season than all of them, if Gray can't get that third year, the Twins QO pick probably comes in comp round B.

Not saying Gray won't but it's certainly a possibility.