Twins Fantasy Fix (7/23): Under-the-Radar Options

[Mike Rose]

Kenta Maeda has pitched well lately but isn’t heavily owned in fantasy leagues, making him an under-the-radar option worth considering.

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the point of the fantasy season when a lot of fantasy managers really need to dig deep to separate themselves in their leagues. Whether you have a player who’s underperforming or are dealing with a ton of injuries, finding under-the-radar options is essential to success. 

Thankfully, there is no shortage of candidates, if you’re looking in the right places. The Twins are no exception, with several players who aren’t widely owned in fantasy leagues but who could still move the needle down the stretch. But there’s one player I’m looking at in particular: Kenta Maeda. Owned in just 9% of leagues, Maeda has been mostly outstanding since returning from the injured list in late June. He’s logged a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across five starts (26 1/3 innings). Perhaps most impressively, he’s maintained a 12.3 K/9 during that stretch. The club has raved about his stuff, and if Kenta is truly “back” from Tommy John surgery, perhaps we can expect something closer to his 2020 form, when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting. For a guy who’s this lightly owned, he has plenty of upside the rest of the way.

In the spirit of being under the radar, here are additional options from the rest of the AL Central. To be considered, a player must have been under 50% owned in ESPN leagues. I’ll explore other divisions in future posts.

• Guardians: Tanner Bibee (26%). With Shane Bieber and Cal Quantrill out, Bibee has stepped up and pitched well, and he should be able to stick in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
• Tigers: Spencer Torkelson (14%). The prospect pedigree is certainly there, and now he’s starting to display some power, with 10 home runs since the beginning of June.
• White Sox: Andrew Benintendi (18%). He’s hitting leadoff most days and has done well with a .289 average and 11 stolen bases. The power hasn’t been there, but he can contribute in other categories, especially if he keeps batting first.
• Royals: Maikel Garcia (6%). Garcia has been seeing regular playing time and has responded by batting .277 with 14 stolen bases this season. He has eligibility at both shortstop and third base in ESPN leagues, giving his value a little boost.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Jorge Polanco
Expected return: Late July
Polanco recently began a rehab assignment with the Saints, playing the field for the first time on July 20. Notably, the team has said Polanco would get reps at third base during the assignment, suggesting that he may play there for the Twins when he returns, with Edouard Julien sticking at second.

Royce Lewis
Expected return: Mid-August or later
Lewis continues to recover from a Grade 2 oblique strain. He should return sometime next month. If Polanco takes over at third base, it remains to be seen where Lewis would play. The outfield is a possibility.

Jose Miranda
Expected return: TBD
Jose Miranda received a platelet-rich plasma injection for his sore shoulder on July 17 and remains without a clear timetable for a return. It looks like he’ll be out of the mix at third base whenever he’s able to come back, with Lewis and possibly Jorge Polanco ahead of him.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: August
Brock Stewart is dealing with right elbow tendinitis and was expected back soon after the break. Things are maybe not progressing as quickly as expected, but he should still be able to get back into the bullpen during the second half. 

Stock Rising: Edouard Julien
ESPN ownership: 10%
Julien is making it impossible for the team to take him out of the lineup, even when Polanco eventually returns. Julien is hitting a scorching .452 this month with a 1.402 OPS. He’s showing plenty of power and plate discipline, with nothing to indicate that he’ll become overwhelmed as a rookie. Simply put, Julien can hit, and his ownership rate should continue to climb upward.

Stock Falling: Joey Gallo
ESPN ownership: 4%
Gallo’s only positive fantasy attribute is power, but he’s not able to go deep when he’s not in the lineup. He’s missed a few games recently with pink eye, though perhaps the bigger long-term issue is the presence of Matt Wallner. If the latter continues to see more playing time in left field, Gallo could get squeezed. The return of Royce Lewis could also impact Gallo if Lewis ends up seeing time in the outfield. The Twins have a handful of outfield options, and Gallo may find himself on the outside looking in.

Prospect Spotlight: Brooks Lee (Double-A Wichita)
I wrote up Lee in this spot earlier in the year but he deserves another mention. The young infielder is batting .339 this month for the Wind Surge with four home runs and 15 RBI in 15 games. He looks ready for Triple-A, and frankly, he’s probably about ready for the majors as well. If that doesn’t happen this season, Brooks Lee should definitely be in the mix for the Twins in 2024., and fantasy managers should have him on their radars.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games vs Seattle (Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller)
3 Games at Kansas City (Brady Singer, Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough)
The Twins get to play Seattle again, with rematches against Castillo and Kirby. Minnesota beat Castillo thanks to two home runs, but he still managed 11 strikeouts. Kirby, meanwhile, shut out the Twins with 10 strikeouts across seven innings. As such, I’m much more interested in the Kansas City matchups this week.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Kenta Maeda gets a chance to continue his strong recent play with scheduled starts Monday against the Mariners and next Sunday against the Royals. He was phenomenal in his last start, which was also against Seattle, and the Royals are 29th in runs scored, so both matchups look positive. I’m feeling pretty good about rolling with Kenta.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Julien is an obvious choice here, but Alex Kirilloff has been almost as hot lately. Thankfully for both of them, the Twins are only slated to face one lefty all week, and that’s not until next Sunday against Yarbrough. Both players should be locked into the lineup and look to be good bets to keep producing at a high level.

Byron Buxton’s recent slump has been well documented, though he did pop for two home runs Friday. He’s also 7-for-13 lifetime against Singer with two dingers, so I like him in that spot. Truthfully, I like just about every Minnesota hitter against Singer and Lyles. The former has a 5.55 ERA this season while the latter is sitting at 6.05. Yarbrough isn’t much better with a 5.21 mark, and he’s allowed righties to hit .281 against him over the last three years. Christian Vazquez is also 11-for-28 against the southpaw all time with three home runs. In daily formats, you could justify Minnesota stacks in all three games during the Kansas City series. The Twins typically offer some good bargain options such as Matt Wallner, who remains priced at or near the minimum but can quickly return great value due to his power potential.

Is Maeda back to being a consistent fantasy performer? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[Doctor Wu]

Speaking of injury updates, any idea on when we might see Nick Gordon again?

[Mike Rose]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Speaking of injury updates, any idea on when we might see Nick Gordon again?

He’s doing weight room stuff according to the team though not really running yet. Looks like probably late-August or September at best. From a fantasy perspective, I don’t see the playing time being there for Gordon to be relevant this year.