October's Dark Horses: Unmasking the Playoff Pathways for Baseball's Mediocre Teams

[jkcarew]

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll let others keep looking at regular season performance and think it matters come playoff time.

But team-wise doesn’t 0 - 18 suggest to you that teams that are clearly weaker than the playoff opponent almost never win one series…let alone two?

Never once were the Twins on par with the opponent going in…way weaker…not really close, including 2019 where the substandard ALC allowed them to win 100+ games, while still somehow being 5 games under 500 against winning teams.

You don’t have to be dominant, you don’t even have to be as good…but you better be within shouting distance. This club can win the division, with or without help, IMO. But, I don’t see them being within shouting distance…even with a rental or two…of any of the prospective opponents.

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, jkcarew said:

But team-wise doesn’t 0 - 18 suggest to you that teams that are clearly weaker than the playoff opponent almost never win one series…let alone two?

Never once were the Twins on par with the opponent going in…way weaker…not really close, including 2019 where the substandard ALC allowed them to win 100+ games, while still somehow being 5 games under 500 against winning teams.

You don’t have to be dominant, you don’t even have to be as good…but you better be within shouting distance. This club can win the division, with or without help, IMO. But, I don’t see them being within shouting distance…even with a rental or two…of any of the prospective opponents.

No it does not and actually the 0-18 doesn't even get close to suggesting that they are clearly weaker. 

The first loss in that 0-18 was game two of the 2004 American league divisional series against the Yankees. 

The 18th loss of that 0-18 was game two of the 2020 wild card series against the Astros. 

There wasn't a single player on the 2004 team that was on the 2020 team so loss #1 clearly has nothing to do with loss #18. Even if the same players were involved... the opponents teams were different year to year, month to month, week to week, game to game. 

Once you dive into the beginnings, the middle and the end of the 0-18 streak to find common players you start to realize that even the players that were part of this for multiple years are still different as individuals from year to year, month to month, week to week, game to game. 

Joe Mauer was a .432 OPS over 11 AB's in 2006 and a 1,000 OPS over 12 AB's in 2009 and a .558 in 2010 over 12 AB's.

If you told me that you knew how Joe Mauer was going to perform in those 12 AB's in the 2006, 2009, 2010 playoffs after regular season OPS totals of .936, 1,031 and .871 in those years. I would have told you that you are... amazing. 😉

However... if you really want to impress me... you'd have my ear if you would have told me that Orlando Hudson was going to lead the Twins in 2010 with a .917 OPS over 12 AB's after a .701 OPS during the regular season. 

Now I realize that you are not talking about individual players... you are talking about teams being clearly better than the Twins. Regardless... my point about individual players in a small sample size still stands because individual performances are reason for the ream result. Good luck predicting 12 AB's for each individual player based upon... well I really don't know what you are going to base these predictions on. 

To bring this point home. It's about 60 playoff AB's for an every day player to get all the way through the playoffs. I've been pretty hard on Max Kepler. I don't think he should be on the roster. However, Max has hit 5 home runs in his past 62 AB's. If he did this during the playoffs... we would be singing songs about him. I don't know... you don't know... Max doesn't know... what he will do in the 2023 playoffs. 

However... lets talk about the teams since that is what you seem to be talking about.

In 2019... you say that the 101 win Twins were "way weaker" compared to the the 103 win Yankees. You say the Twins were 5 games under .500 against teams with a winning record and claiming we got fat against the weak AL Central. 

The implication of your statement is that the Twins beat the weak teams while the Yankees beat the good teams. OK... Let's say that's true. If the Yankees won 103 by beating the GOOD teams and the Twins won 101 by beating the WEAK teams. The win total difference between 103 and 101 has to be made up somewhere so if you are correct... it would also HAVE TO MEAN that the Yankees LOST to the WEAK teams to make up the win/loss difference. No penalty for losing to the weak teams?  

Just in case the above point isn't getting anywhere... it should but just in case it isn't... I'll post the 2019 head to head records and you can tell me what team "clearly" dominated the Twins during the 2019 regular season.

Opponent (Games)	Won	Lost	WP
Atlanta Braves (3)	1	2	0.333
Baltimore Orioles (6)	6	0	1.000
Boston Red Sox (6)	3	3	0.500
Chicago White Sox (19)	13	6	0.684
Cleveland Guardians (19)	9	10	0.474
Detroit Tigers (19)	14	5	0.737
Houston Astros (7)	4	3	0.571
Kansas City Royals (19)	14	5	0.737
Los Angeles Angels (6)	5	1	0.833
Miami Marlins (3)	2	1	0.667
Milwaukee Brewers (4)	2	2	0.500
New York Mets (4)	1	3	0.250
New York Yankees (6)	2	4	0.333
Oakland Athletics (7)	3	4	0.429
Philadelphia Phillies (3)	1	2	0.333
Seattle Mariners (7)	5	2	0.714
Tampa Bay Rays (7)	5	2	0.714
Texas Rangers (7)	6	1	0.857
Toronto Blue Jays (7)	4	3	0.571
Washington Nationals (3)	1	2	0.333

Let's continue on... deeper into the 2019 playoffs. We lost... the Yankees advance. They didn't get past the Astros and the Astros lost to the Nationals who were 6 games below .500 in Mid-June. 

Bottom Line: 

The playoffs are a small sample size, the 0-18 streak is a small sample size followed by a small sample size. It still hurts nonetheless but the streak was yesterday. Tomorrow is indeed a new day. We are right now 0-0 in future playoffs. 

I think we should add offense at the trade deadline. There are some who think we should sell. 

I think we should add offense because it helps us MAKE the playoffs not because the additions are going to necessarily help us win in the small sample size of the playoffs. Hopefully the additions improve our chances in the playoffs but I want to add to help us make the playoffs. 

For those who think we should sell... I can respect the reasoning that the team could sell Sonny Gray, get some decent players in return for the future, still make the playoffs and could still do well in the playoffs. I can't argue that point... I disagree because I think we should add offense but I can't argue that point. 

But for those who think we should sell because they think this team has NO CHANCE in the playoffs. I can't respect that. I won't respect that. I don't know, you don't know, the front office doesn't know and the individual players don't know. 

If you could tell me how Joe Mauer was going to perform in the playoffs in 2006, 2009 and 2010... Maybe I'll listen.