Article: Don't Lose Faith in Unlucky Worley

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1680-Don-t-Lose-Faith-in-Unlucky-Worley

[Shane Wahl]

Very illuminating . . . and actually relaxing article.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've watched most of Worley's starts this season and I often closed the game window confused after his start.

 

He seemed to pitch okay... So why was his final line so awful? He was locating, getting a lot of groundballs, doing what we expected him to do, yet he'd finish with a 5-6 IP night and 4-5 runs allowed.

 

Pelfrey looked awful in his starts. Worley often didn't. Good job on pointing out some statistics why that seemed to be the case, Nick.

[Rick Niedermann]

Great take Nick. This is something I noticed also. Worley has to some degree been the victim of bad luck. A good pitch leads to a bloop or a roller ends up in the right spot between Plouffe and Floriman. It has happened a lot. That's why I haven't given up on Worley. His luck has to get better.

[LoganJones]

Worley hasn't been bad because of luck. He's been back because of location and approach. He's shown a lack of responsibility for his part in the bad games and routinely rolls his eyes at his fielders. He's not a bad pitcher, but he has to make a lot of corrections to get things going right. He has the talent to succeed, as we see in many of his 'good' innings. He just has to keep his location sharp at all time.

 

Often things like BABip and FB/HR stats trotted out as though there is nothing to them but percentage. BABip will be higher and HR/FB will be higher when more of your pitches are put into happy-zones. He needs to do less of that, and the peripherals will follow.

[snepp]

Hitter happy-zones of course, not to be confused with pitcher happy-zones.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Often things like BABip and FB/HR stats trotted out as though there is nothing to them but percentage. BABip will be higher and HR/FB will be higher when more of your pitches are put into happy-zones. He needs to do less of that, and the peripherals will follow.

 

A pitching machine probably wouldn't allow a BABIP of over .400 to a lineup of hitters over the course of a season.

 

That's some pretty awful luck.

[Guest USAFChief]

A pitching machine probably wouldn't allow a BABIP of over .400 to a lineup of hitters over the course of a season.

 

That's some pretty awful luck.

That would be an interesting experiment, if somehow that could be arranged.

[snepp]

That would be an interesting experiment, if somehow that could be arranged.

 

The Twins tried in 2007, they ended it after just 7 starts.

[iastfan112]

The Twins tried in 2007, they ended it after just 7 starts.

 

The attempt in 2000 was more successful: Sean Bergman » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

[ashbury]

The attempt in 2007 was more successful: Sean Bergman » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

 

He went 4-5. How in the world?

[Guest USAFChief]

The Twins tried in 2007, they ended it after just 7 starts.

They should've extended the tripod's legs. Tough to get that "good downward plane" when the damn thing is sitting 4 ft off the ground.

[snepp]

They should've extended the tripod's legs. Tough to get that "good downward plane" when the damn thing is sitting 4 ft off the ground.

 

They tried, but the support pins couldn't sustain its immense bulk.