Berardino: Twins GM - Forget Arbitration Clock, Aaron Hicks Belongs

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with John, and I said it in the previous thread where this quote came up.....if he really wants to look veterans in the eye, why did he build this pitching staff? Awful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You give Mauer and Morneau some hope by not holding back Hicks when it obvious he is ready for the BIGS.

 

It's far from obvious that Hicks is ready for the bigs. I'm not against giving him a shot in CF after Mastro's injury and Benson's failure but let's not act as if he's the second coming of Mike Trout. Hicks has never played an inning above AA and as recently as last offseason, many were questioning whether he'd pan out at all.

[cmathewson]

It's far from obvious that Hicks is ready for the bigs. I'm not against giving him a shot in CF after Mastro's injury and Benson's failure but let's not act as if he's the second coming of Mike Trout. Hicks has never played an inning above AA and as recently as last offseason, many were questioning whether he'd pan out at all.

 

I'm reminded of how we lost Hunter and Santana by trading Castillo and bringing up Casilla at the deadline. Both players thought Ryan was giving up on the season. Both players were team leaders who turned from positive to negative influences on clubhouse and their team overnight. Both players said they would leave as soon as they could, repeatedly and publically.

 

If they want to have a chance to keep Morneau, they'll bring the guys who won jobs in Spring Training north. In this case, the competition wasn't close. Hicks did things in the field this spring that we haven't seen around here since Hunter was in his prime. And his hitting so far surpassed expectations that it would be seen as a grave injustice to the whole team if he was sent back for marginal financial benefits.

 

We're not expecting Mike Trout. But Hicks is better than Span right now, and will only get better as he matures. Mastoianni is not as good as Span and never will be. In short, Hicks gives us a chance to get off to a good start. Mastro, not so much. If we don't get off to a good start, our hopes of retaining Morneau will dwindle, and we'll be forced to trade him midseason. That's the kind of problem no GM wants to have.

[jokin]

It's far from obvious that Hicks is ready for the bigs. I'm not against giving him a shot in CF after Mastro's injury and Benson's failure but let's not act as if he's the second coming of Mike Trout. Hicks has never played an inning above AA and as recently as last offseason, many were questioning whether he'd pan out at all.

 

Hicks is the first of the apprentices from the next wave. Realistic Twins fans should expect struggles early and often (it's certainly in Hicks' career MO, I expect at least one short-term demotion to AAA), amidst the glimpses of potential greatness from each and every one of the next wave coming up this year, 2014 and 2015.

[ThePuck]

Hicks is better than Span right now

 

Um, exactly how do you figure that?

[jokin]

I'm reminded of how we lost Hunter and Santana by trading Castillo and bringing up Casilla at the deadline. Both players thought Ryan was giving up on the season. Both players were team leaders who turned from positive to negative influences on clubhouse and their team overnight. Both players said they would leave as soon as they could, repeatedly and publically.

 

If they want to have a chance to keep Morneau, they'll bring the guys who won jobs in Spring Training...

 

We're not expecting Mike Trout. But Hicks is better than Span right now, and will only get better as he matures. Mastoianni is not as good as Span and never will be. In short, Hicks gives us a chance to get off to a good start. Mastro, not so much. If we don't get off to a good start, our hopes of retaining Morneau will dwindle, and we'll be forced to trade him midseason. That's the kind of problem no GM wants to have.

 

I'm as optimistic about Hicks as most anyone, but it's not realistic to suppose the offensive numbers he put up this spring, or anything close to it, are sustainable. If you look at Hicks minor league slash, nothing above AA mind you, (271/379/421/800) with Span's major league slash (286/355/356/711), coupled with what Hicks has shown thus far in CF, it's easy to project that Hicks will be better than Span at some point, but it's hard to say based on ST results that he's better than Span right now.

And I don't think the Twins are overly concerned about retaining Morneau, except at their price (hometown discount).

[cmathewson]

I'm as optimistic about Hicks as most anyone, but it's not realistic to suppose the offensive numbers he put up this spring, or anything close to it, are sustainable. If you look at Hicks minor league slash, nothing above AA mind you, (271/379/421/800) with Span's major league slash (286/355/356/711), coupled with what Hicks has shown thus far in CF, it's easy to project that Hicks will be better than Span at some point, but it's hard to say based on ST results that he's better than Span right now.

And I don't think the Twins are overly concerned about retaining Morneau, except at their price (hometown discount).

 

Denard Span was no great shakes offensively. He's just a little above average. His career OPS+ is 103. The last three years, he's had one year above 100. Defensively, he's also about average, with slightly above average range and a below average arm. On the bases, he's below average. Though he has a good stealing percentage, he led the league in getting picked of four of the last five years.

 

I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that Hicks will be an above average hitter this year, even throwing out spring training results, and exclusively focusing on his AA results. Relative to Span, he'll have the same or better patience, a slightly lower contact rate, and a much higher slugging percentage. Defensively, he's well above average in both range and arm, trending towards elite. On the bases, he's slightly above average. Though his base stealing is about what Span's has been, he won't get picked off quite so much.

 

I'm not in the least bit shy in saying that Hicks is better than Span right now. And he should improve as the season goes along and he learns the pitchers.

[ThePuck]

Span was ranked as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball last year..he's not flashy...probably because he takes better routes than most so he doesn't need to be. Offensively, he gets on base, he takes pitches...he does what his role asks of him.

 

Hicks hasn't played one game above AA. I'm high on Hicks too, but saying he's better than Span right now has no basis in reality. Certainly can't put it out there as solid fact the way you did and continue to do. You're looking at ST stuff and minor league numbers below AAA as the basis. You don't know what he'll do over the course of a whole MLB season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that Hicks will be an above average hitter this year, even throwing out spring training results, and exclusively focusing on his AA results.

This MLE calculator (Minor League Equivalency calculator) translates Hicks' 2012 to a MLB line of .233/.312/.353, for an OPS of .665. Span was around .685 in 2010-2011, but did rebound to .738 last year (right around his career average to date).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, if anyone wants further discussion on the service time issue, I made a blog post here:

 

How important is it to delay service time? - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

(Maybe I would have been better off putting it in the forums, though!)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not in the least bit shy in saying that Hicks is better than Span right now. And he should improve as the season goes along and he learns the pitchers.

 

Maybe it's just me but I'd refrain from calling Hicks a better player than Span until he actually swings at a pitch that counts.

 

There's a good chance Aaron will OPS at .600 for two months before being sent back down to AAA to work on contact issues. He's not a better player than Span until he plays better than Span.

[cmathewson]

I'm sorry. Did I forget to say "I think Hicks is better than Span right now" and "I predict he will have a better season than Span this year". My bad. I thought that was implied.