Article: Seth's 2013 Top 30 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

Vargas is weird. Seems people either see some David Ortiz in him and believe in his power, or they can't get past his inability to catch-up to good fastballs. The 2nd point being the more important one to me considering he's only played low-A ball to this point. The pitching is only going to get better.

 

I have heard and understand both, but I also think he's got room to improve. If he does, he should be higher than 12. If he isn't able to catch up to the good fastballs, then he'll fall off the list.

[Seth Stohs]

Good list Seth. Like everyone else, I would probably move a few guys around a bit. But your list is as good as anyones. I would probably have included one or two of the GCL pitchers in a top 30. The only problem is, which one or two of the ten who were awesome last year?

 

Bonnie checked my facebook account this morning and saw it is a bit cold on the border, eh? Was 79 here in Palm Desert yesterday. Will be here thru mid February.

 

As we've talked about before, there is a combination of talent, production, age and likelihood to get to the big leagues in any person's prospect rankings. I like the pitchers in the GCL, but couldn't put them ahead of any of my top 30... I really like Rosario. He touches 95 already. I like Lo. Malinowski has a chance to be good. Those guys are top 50 types.

[Seth Stohs]

Cool, I see why we should not give up on anyone. But can we at least drop him from our list until he produces, then immediately put him in an appropriate spot?

 

So... I shouldn't have had Gibson in my Top 7 or 8 last offseason because he had Tommy John surgery and the last month or so of his pitcher, he struggled? No, you have to factor in the injury and drop a player appropriate to the likelihood of his return, but if you believe the guy can get back to where he was before the surgery/injury, then why wouldn't you keep him on the list?? (no, I'm not putting Salcedo in Gibson's category. Gibson went from 1 to 6. Salcedo went from about 9 to 20ish.)

[twinsnorth49]

Great stuff Seth, lots of reasons to be optimistic for sure. I agree 100% in your assessment of Wimmers, people seem to have either completely forgot about him or have written him off, I think he's going to come back and surprise a lot people and be in that 2015-16 conversation. Where is he at with his rehab by the way?

[ashbury]

As we've talked about before, there is a combination of talent, production, age and likelihood to get to the big leagues in any person's prospect rankings.

 

This raises a point I frequently wonder about when looking at someone's rankings - what does it *mean* to rank one player above another? While it's a combination of dimensions, the end result has to be a single dimension. To me, the closest this comes is to "trade value". If the Twins decided they were going to trade for a front-line starter, or a really good shortstop, they know they'd have to part with some young talent - so, would you trade Buxton or Sano to get that elite player in return, and if so which one more willingly? That's how I view the notion that Colabello isn't in the top 30, because even those who like to root for him would flip him in a heartbeat if any team offered a moderately good pitching prospect in return, sooner than Mason Melotakis or Daniel Ortiz.

 

Or, care to rebut this trade value idea? Any pair on your list that you think would fetch different amounts in trade but their ranking is opposite to their return, for reasons you'd still support and defend? Just thinking out loud here...

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

This will be such an interesting year to watch the minors. I suppose that could be said every year, but we have so many intriguing prospects right now.

Agreed. To the things you cited I'd also add that, despite the general sense that the organization is weak on pitching, there's so much uncertainty with a lot of their arms like the recent draft of college relievers, and if even a couple of those guys are pleasant surprises as starters, the outlook for the org.'s pitching really starts to change.

 

Seth, a couple quick questions (and thanks for your work and the interesting read):

Do you put Benson's upside ahead of Hicks'?

And any reason why you doubt Polanco's bat for the future?

[jokin]

Seth, considering what they've invested in Amaurys Minier, when and where would he debut on your ranking scale?

 

Also, does your exclusion of Baxendale, Chargois, Thielbar, Slama and Stuifbergen from your top 30 indicate that they are out of favor with the Twins staff and may never get a serious shot at making the big club? (it's obvious what the Twins think about Slama, despite his dominating Minor League numbers).

 

Did Jeremias Pineda impress enough in his stint with the Rookie team to have a shot at breaking into this list, or is he going to be lapped by the talent around him at his level and just above him?

[mako83]

One shortstop

[shs_59]

Great list.

 

RHP Zach Jones and his 95-98 MPH fastballl (touches 99) has to be on the top 30 somewhere!!!

 

I have him in the top 20.

 

Baxendale, Z. Jones, J. Polanco and maybe Melotakis I am quite a bit higher on than you are. (hopefully Levi MIchael bounces back at least some also)

 

K. Vargas, Joe Benson, and A.B. Walker i am quite a bit lower on than you are.

 

Love the placement of several other names though.....Salcedo, Wimmers, Harrison Goodrum and many others.

 

I think Nathan Roberts may be the most under-valued. I mean Rene Tosoni was a top 15 prospect by everyone pretty much. And Tosoni turned out to be a 5th Of'er or quad A guy. While that may end up being Roberts final outcome, i see at least that as his potential. i think he can be more valuable than Darrin Mastroianni and more of a 3rd OF'er than 4th Ofer'.

 

time will tell.

 

 

Pedro Hernandez at 25 seems odd, mainly because our system is sooo strong. After aquiring Meyer, and May i am sure the twins boast a top 10 farm system in all of baseball. (as they should being one of majors 5 worst clubs right now)

 

But they could possibly rank as high as 6th or 7th overall of all 30 teams. Which is certainly exciting news !

 

1. St Louis.

2. Texas

3. San Diego

4. Tampa Bay Rays

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

6. Seattle Mariners

7. Minnesota Twins

8. Boston Red Sox

9. New York Mets

10. Houston Astros

---

11 would be either Cubs, D'Backs or Royals.

 

is probably how i'd rank the farm systems in baseball.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, a couple quick questions (and thanks for your work and the interesting read):

Do you put Benson's upside ahead of Hicks'?

And any reason why you doubt Polanco's bat for the future?

 

Benson's upside one year ago was higher than Hicks. I don't know that it still is. He's got a lot to prove. His ranking for people will be dependent upon how much the ranker believes he was hurt throughout the 2012 season.

 

Polanco's little. He's not going to hit for power, and he isn't one to walk a ton, so I don't see a lot of offensive upside. He'll have to hit .300 to have a lot of value, unless he's amazing defensively. I've also never read a scouting report that talks terribly much or terribly highly of his bat.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, considering what they've invested in Amaurys Minier, when and where would he debut on your ranking scale?

 

Also, does your exclusion of Baxendale, Chargois, Thielbar, Slama and Stuifbergen from your top 30 indicate that they are out of favor with the Twins staff and may never get a serious shot at making the big club? (it's obvious what the Twins think about Slama, despite his dominating Minor League numbers).

 

Did Jeremias Pineda impress enough in his stint with the Rookie team to have a shot at breaking into this list, or is he going to be lapped by the talent around him at his level and just above him?

 

Regarding Minier, I generally don't rank players until they are at least in the GCL, but his signing bonus indicates that he must have some upside to be a Top 10 type of guy.

 

IF you read the prospect handbook, the profile of Slama talks about his stats versus his scouting report. Last year, he rarely touched 88 mph. It's hard to get too excited about a guy who doesn't throw hard, doesn't have a great second pitch, and is already 29 years old, from a prospect status. That said, he's a great guy who I believe deserves a real opportunity. Stuifbergen needs to stay healthy. I don't think anyone's given up on him, but he's been eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 twice without being taken. Thielbar, they obviously love, and for good reason based on scouting I've received, but at most, he'll throw about 50-60 innings in a season as the #2 bullpen lefty probably. Chargois is also a reliever, but he could move up quite quickly but let's let him get beyond rookie league ball before getting too excited.

 

Pineda - I don't think I'd have him in my top 50, but he's intriguing in the outfield planning up above.

[Seth Stohs]

Great list.

 

RHP Zach Jones and his 95-98 MPH fastballl (touches 99) has to be on the top 30 somewhere!!!

 

I have him in the top 20.

 

Baxendale, Z. Jones, J. Polanco and maybe Melotakis I am quite a bit higher on than you are. (hopefully Levi MIchael bounces back at least some also)

 

K. Vargas, Joe Benson, and A.B. Walker i am quite a bit lower on than you are.

 

Love the placement of several other names though.....Salcedo, Wimmers, Harrison Goodrum and many others.

 

I think Nathan Roberts may be the most under-valued. I mean Rene Tosoni was a top 15 prospect by everyone pretty much. And Tosoni turned out to be a 5th Of'er or quad A guy. While that may end up being Roberts final outcome, i see at least that as his potential. i think he can be more valuable than Darrin Mastroianni and more of a 3rd OF'er than 4th Ofer'.

 

time will tell.

 

 

Pedro Hernandez at 25 seems odd, mainly because our system is sooo strong. After aquiring Meyer, and May i am sure the twins boast a top 10 farm system in all of baseball. (as they should being one of majors 5 worst clubs right now)

 

But they could possibly rank as high as 6th or 7th overall of all 30 teams. Which is certainly exciting news !

 

1. St Louis.

2. Texas

3. San Diego

4. Tampa Bay Rays

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

6. Seattle Mariners

7. Minnesota Twins

8. Boston Red Sox

9. New York Mets

10. Houston Astros

---

11 would be either Cubs, D'Backs or Royals.

 

is probably how i'd rank the farm systems in baseball.

 

 

Regarding Zack Jones... then why was he taken in the 4th round instead of the 1st or 2nd round, like several other Twins picks like Luke Bard (who will start), Mason Melotakis (who will likely get an opportunity to start), and JT Chargois? Also, Bruce Pugh and Dakota Watts touch those velocities as well, so why not ask for them in the top 30?

 

And, Baxendale was a 10th round pick this past year... Nothing against him, and he dominated out of the bullpen in the low levels, but for him to be Top 30, shouldn't he have been higher than a 10th round pick? (I think he'll succeed until AA and then we'll find out how good he can be)

 

Roberts never hit as well as Tosoni. Tosoni skipped Low A ball and Roberts spent two years in Low A ball. Tosoni was a better outfielder with a much better arm. Roberts gets on base very well as a leadoff hitter, but Tosoni took good at bats and plenty of walks, so I'm very comfortable with where I ranked Tosoni, and where I have Roberts.

 

Regarding Hernandez, his ranking and prospect status have nothing to do with May and Meyer.

 

This may sound dumb, but I frankly don't really care where people rank the Twins comparable to other teams. It's nice to be considered in that top quarter or third or teams, but I don't care about prospects for other teams. I may know their names and a little about them, but I just focus on the Twins, and I feel good about the Twins farm system and direction, and that matters more to me than where someone thinks they rank.

[mlhouse]

Thought I would include my own top fifteen (parens is Seth's ranking)

 

1. Byron Buxton (2) He probably was the real #1 player in last year's draft and has at least 2 max tools. If he develops his mid-level power potential and some pitch selectivity someday we will have an all-star CF in Minnesota.

 

2. Miguel Sano (1) Huge power potential, but some holes in his game drops him to the #2 slot behind Buxton. He needs to reduce his 33% strikeout rate as he moves up to higher levels of competition. His cooling off after a torrid start may have revealed something, but he should also be able to make adjustments.

 

3. Aaron Hicks (5) I move him ahead of Arcia because I think he is much more likely to contribute at the major league level even if his upside is not as great.

 

4. Orlando Arcia (3) As a hitter, he could have a higher upside than the three solid prospects above him.

 

5. Alex Meyer (4) Nice power pitching prospect that the Twins desperately need. He can miss bats and at A level had reasonable control. Can he maintain a high strikeout level as he advances up the minors will define his upside potential. He just turned 23, so the Twins need to rush develop him the the majors.

 

6. JT Berrios (8) One of the most solid starts for a high drafted high school pitcher in a long time. For a young pitcher to have the BB/K ratio that he had,even though it was only rookie ball, was incredible. He has the stuff and the Twins can take their time with him.

 

7. Eddie Rosario (7) If he can actually develop as a 2B he might have to be considered to be the #1 prospect in the minors because infielders simply do not hit like he does. In Rookie ball he hit 21 home runs, but in the bigger A park that power shifted more to a doubles type hitter. In just 429 PAs he hit 32 doubles, 4 triples, and 12 home runs in a year he had an injury which sidelined him. Adjusting these totals for 600 PAs projects to 45 doubles, 6 triples and 17 HRs. If he can improve slighlty on his OBP of .345 he could become a solid #2 hitter.

 

8. Kyle Gibson (6) The injury problem really has cut into his upside. Projected as a #2 type starter, I was really impressed watching him in Ft. Myers because of his ability to get ground balls. But, with his second major arm injury of his career, he is 25 years old and has only pitched 276 innings of minor league ball. Any setback to his career effectively removes him as a premium prospect, and the arm injury has reduced his upside to a #3/4 guy you probably cannot count on to eat many innings.

 

9. Trevor May (9) This is totally based on upside. I don't know if the guy will be able to generate enough control to be an effective major league pitcher. He became available in trade because moving from A to AA ball, his K rate dropped from 12+/9 to 9.08 while his BB/9 increased to 4.69/9, and he gave up 22 HR in 149.2 innings. That is a step back and he will have to return to form to stay in the top 10.

 

10. Luke Bard (20) Twins 3rd selection, #42 overall, in the 2012 draft. He has the stuff but has been a reliever. This ranking is based more on his draft position than the 7 innings he pitched in the minors

 

11. Mason Melotakis (22) Hard throwing reliever that I think needs to move quickly up the minors.

 

12. Max Kepler (10) Still a long ways to go, but he isnt far from Europe. Lots of natural potential.

 

13. Kenny Vargas (12) Nice power potential, but most likely a DH only player.

 

14. Travis Harrison (14) A 3B prospect with upside, the Twins can be patient.

 

15. BJ Hermsen (18) Probably a limited player like Liam Hendricks or Cole Devries, but he has to rank somewhere because of output. HE gets it done and there are lots of major league pitchers who have been succesful with his type of tools.

[Steve Lein]

Roberts never hit as well as Tosoni. Tosoni skipped Low A ball and Roberts spent two years in Low A ball. Tosoni was a better outfielder with a much better arm. Roberts gets on base very well as a leadoff hitter, but Tosoni took good at bats and plenty of walks, so I'm very comfortable with where I ranked Tosoni, and where I have Roberts.

 

Can you elaborate a bit about this comparison? I guess I read this as you think Tosoni was the better prospect. I do remember Tosoni being a prospect you really liked (more than other people), and I guess Roberts is the same with me (I'd have him top-15), so I would just like to hear further thoughts as to why (if this is the case)?

 

If I didn't know anything about them and was just glancing at their stats, I'd peg Roberts as the better prospect by far. They are the same size, both bat left-handed and throw right-handed, Roberts was a 5th round pick compared to 36th round (since you've brought that thought up relative to these rankings), Roberts draws walks far more often (11.8% of PA's, and that's not including HBP) than Tosoni does (9.3%) and drew more walks than K's last year, has a career MiLB batting average nearly .050 points higher, and career OPS .150 points higher, has shown more power (in XBH total terms) and is also an adept basestealer, a skill Tosoni has never had. If you go side by side relative to their ages, Roberts has been playing at lower levels, but outperformed Tosoni across the board.

 

I also think with Roberts performance in the AFL this last year, his age, and the fact he was seemingly held back at Low-A due to injuries, that he's going skip Fort Myers and start the year in AA, at age 24, which is the same age Tosoni would have played at AA for some of his season there. At least, I really want this to happen. Hopefully the Twins agree!

[Seth Stohs]

Can you elaborate a bit about this comparison? I guess I read this as you think Tosoni was the better prospect. I do remember Tosoni being a prospect you really liked (more than other people), and I guess Roberts is the same with me (I'd have him top-15), so I would just like to hear further thoughts as to why (if this is the case)?

 

If I didn't know anything about them and was just glancing at their stats, I'd peg Roberts as the better prospect by far. They are the same size, both bat left-handed and throw right-handed, Roberts was a 5th round pick compared to 36th round (since you've brought that thought up relative to these rankings), Roberts draws walks far more often (11.8% of PA's, and that's not including HBP) than Tosoni does (9.3%) and drew more walks than K's last year, has a career MiLB batting average nearly .050 points higher, and career OPS .150 points higher, has shown more power (in XBH total terms) and is also an adept basestealer, a skill Tosoni has never had. If you go side by side relative to their ages, Roberts has been playing at lower levels, but outperformed Tosoni across the board.

 

I also think with Roberts performance in the AFL this last year, his age, and the fact he was seemingly held back at Low-A due to injuries, that he's going skip Fort Myers and start the year in AA, at age 24, which is the same age Tosoni would have played at AA for some of his season there. At least, I really want this to happen. Hopefully the Twins agree!

 

I like Roberts, and it's a tough comparison because 1.) the Twins farm system is much better now than it was when I had Tosoni ranked around #10. They have different skill sets. Defensively, I think that Tosoni is much better. Offensively, I think Tosoni has much more power, enough to overcome the 2% difference in walk rate. Also note that it wasn't long after I ranked Tosoni at #10 (after he skipped Low A and was pretty decent in High A), he dropped down to the later teens, which again, factoring in that the Twins farm system is much better, would put them in a similar spot.

 

Roberts is a great leadoff hitter. No question, and I really like him in that role. I just don't know that you want a DH as a leadoff hitter, which kind of puts him in that 4th OF mode in my mind today. Again, that's kind of what Tosoni became (or could become with the right opportunity), but at the time I ranked him highly, I thought he could be a solid (not an All Star, but a guy you don't mind in your lineup every day) outfielder.

[jokin]

Regarding Minier, I generally don't rank players until they are at least in the GCL, but his signing bonus indicates that he must have some upside to be a Top 10 type of guy.

 

IF you read the prospect handbook, the profile of Slama talks about his stats versus his scouting report. Last year, he rarely touched 88 mph. It's hard to get too excited about a guy who doesn't throw hard, doesn't have a great second pitch, and is already 29 years old, from a prospect status. That said, he's a great guy who I believe deserves a real opportunity. Stuifbergen needs to stay healthy. I don't think anyone's given up on him, but he's been eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 twice without being taken. Thielbar, they obviously love, and for good reason based on scouting I've received, but at most, he'll throw about 50-60 innings in a season as the #2 bullpen lefty probably. Chargois is also a reliever, but he could move up quite quickly but let's let him get beyond rookie league ball before getting too excited.

 

Pineda - I don't think I'd have him in my top 50, but he's intriguing in the outfield planning up above.

 

Thanks Seth! It's been a long time since many of us have been more excited about what's coming up soon in the system versus the opening of spring training knowing the same-old-same-olds will be the ones ultimately heading North. Gotta think that your articles this upcoming season are going to frequently be "first-reads" over the ML results.

[TwiMs]

Just got the book in the mail a couple days ago. Great job!

[mnfanforlife]

Minier is gonna take about 6 six years to be Minnesota-ready. But shoot...most of our guys are on that same plan.... Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, Buxton, Arica, Vargas, Gibson, Meyer should be up before Minier. Should be good timing for Minier, as he will join a group in Minnesota that has some serious potential (if we still have those mentioned)

[mnfanforlife]

The million dollar question would be: Where does Minier fit defensively in 2018?

 

I am hoping SS

[twinsnorth49]

Seth, where is Wimmers at with his rehab and where do you see him playing the majority of this year?

[righty8383]

Wimmers got his surgery in August. So if you want to use Gibson as a timatable reference, he could be ready to pitch in live games by June. Probably pitch a few innings in the GCL then walk over to Hammond Stadium and pitch for the Miracle.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, where is Wimmers at with his rehab and where do you see him playing the majority of this year?

 

His surgery was in August of 2012. Gibson's was in September of 2011. So, best case scenario, he'll be doing what Gibson did this year, but maybe a month earlier. That is, he could be throwing off a mound in early May. He could pitch some rehab in the GCL when their season starts in late June. When his rehab stint is done, he will likely stay in Ft. Myers with the Miracle as he's building up strength. Maybe he ends the year in New Britain for a couple of starts.

[Seth Stohs]

The million dollar question would be: Where does Minier fit defensively in 2018?

 

I am hoping SS

 

Not likely. If he gets to the GCL in 2013, he'll play for ET in 2014. Midwest League in 2015. Florida State league in 2016... he could be debuting in 2018, but who knows where.

[mnfanforlife]

Not likely. If he gets to the GCL in 2013, he'll play for ET in 2014. Midwest League in 2015. Florida State league in 2016... he could be debuting in 2018, but who knows where.

 

Yep. That's the million dollar question.

[mnfanforlife]

Regarding Zack Jones... then why was he taken in the 4th round instead of the 1st or 2nd round, like several other Twins picks...

 

Maybe we got lucky since he was a two-way player his first two years?

[kab21]

I don't think you worry about 2018 depth charts when it comes to int'l FA's that haven't played in the US yet. I just hope that he's a top ten Twins prospect in 2 years.

[lightfoot789]

I have a question - If all our OF prospects reach thier potential - Who gets traded by 2016? and why?

Oswaldo Arcia

Aaron Hicks

Max Kepler

Byron Buxton

Nate Roberts

Joe Benson

Adam Walker

Angel Morales

Romy Jimenez

Chris Parmelee

[kab21]

I think you start getting concerned about that when a couple of them actually make it since the bust rate of a prospect is pretty high.

[lightfoot789]

Just looking for speculation like the rest of these threads. Every prospect is a bust until he is not. 100% true and words to live by

[mnfanforlife]

I don't think you worry about 2018 depth charts when it comes to int'l FA's that haven't played in the US yet. I just hope that he's a top ten Twins prospect in 2 years.

 

Agreed