MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably Late

[USAFChief]

The runner at second is a fringe benefit of my strategy, not the primary motivator.

 

To get out of the 9th inning, 2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, I want a force play at every base, and I don't want to get stuck in a footrace with Buxton.

 

I also don't think you can look at how Buxton runs on normal ground balls to assess how it would play out here. I'm sure Buxton hustles normally, but I am also sure there is a special motivator for him on the play, knowing that if he beats it out we win the game -- he was going to put every ounce of his special ability to use on this play.

 

Edit to add: for that matter, I'm not sure if ground ball rate is going to be accurate in this situation either. Buxton approaches a normal AB trying to drive a pitch to the outfield -- but when a ground ball to the left side could win the game, he's probably employing a different approach.

I'm pretty confident a ground ball to the left side wasn't Buxton's goal in that AB. He beat it out, great, but that's a rarity. His goal, I'm sure, was a line drive single to the OF. Failing that...put the ball in play.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton also strikes out a lot and hits a lot of first pitch pop-ups. I'm not walking the hitter who had batted ninth for the Twins the past 3 years in this scenario.

With 2 outs, there is nothing particularly special about a strikeout or pop-up in this situation. (Maybe if he had a meaningfully high rate of "first pitch pop ups" that would reduce the risk of a passed ball or wild pitch on subsequent pitches, but I'm guessing Cruz wasn't eager to dash home under those circumstances either.) You just need the out.

 

If you pitch to Byron, there are only 3 realistic possibilities to record the out:

1. Strikeout

2. Ball in the air

3. Throw out Buxton at first on a grounder

 

If you walk Buxton and pitch to Marwin, yes you lose the ability to walk him, but you expand that list of possibilities (and the grounder possibility becomes more realistic, IMO):

1. Strikeout

2. Ball in the air

3. Throw out Marwin at first on a grounder

4. Force play at any base

 

BTW, Byron and Marwin have only slight differences in their overall BB%, K%, and BABIP since the beginning of 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=14161,5497&startdate=&enddate=

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm pretty confident a ground ball to the left side wasn't Buxton's goal in that AB. He beat it out, great, but that's a rarity. His goal, I'm sure, was a line drive single to the OF. Failing that...put the ball in play.

It's not as if batters can only have one "goal" though. They have an approach that can produce a variety of outcomes, and you just pointed out his approach was almost certainly different here from a normal PA (emphasizing contact).

 

Look at the PA -- Byron laid off the first two pitches completely. Does he do that in normal PA? Probably not. But here he's being more patient, more deliberate. By pitch #5 of the at-bat, he had two strikes on him, and it was a low pitch but not in the dirt, and he had seen low pitches twice already. In a normal PA, maybe Byron is still looking for something to drive there and is more willing to strike out, or forces himself to lay off that pitch. But not here. Morneau even mentioned it on the broadcast -- shorten up, put the bat on the ball, and take off running.

 

And with a runner on third, the Tigers couldn't throw too much junk to him -- they had to make sure the pitch was catchable for the catcher, which also means fairly hittable for the batter.

 

I'm not saying Buxton was 100% sure to beat out any grounder -- of course he wasn't. But from the Tigers perspective, if you just need an out, any out, and you can't just spike pitches in the dirt with the runner at third, I'd prefer to throw to Marwin with the bases loaded instead of Byron with second and third. 

[Nine of twelve]

Just wanted to say I've enjoyed the discussion about the minutiae of the ninth inning. This is the type of thing that makes me really like baseball.