Should Baldelli Platoon Jorge Polanco?

[mikelink45]

I see improvement which can only continue with opportunities to increase his comfort on both sides.  I am not in favor, but when the circumstances put one of the few topflight pitchers in his way they can wisely give him a day of rest. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

It is okay to say no!  The post was meant to lead into a discussion of if Polanco should still be hitting 2nd in the lineup and if he could potentially be a better player by sticking on the left handed side of the plate.   I do kind of regret the title and the way I phrased it.  

 

That was not the best way to get to the productive meat of the conversation.  I believe there is a good one to be had.  

 

We talk about Sano tweaking his swing or Kepler needing to get better against lefties (pre-2018), why not open up the same conversation for Polanco?

 

That is a fair question, especially because that is what they do with Max Kepler who often bats 6th against lefties. 

[glunn]

Moderator note -- let's show a bit more respect for the original poster. Calling his idea "insane" and the like does nothing to advance the discussion. Better to not post at all than to be disrespectful of another Twins fan who started a thread in good faith.

 

I have clicked "like" on most of the posts on both sides of this argument, because robust debate is a good thing and a lot of good points have been made. But a few posts have been at or crossing the line in terms of being too dismissive or otherwise disrespectful.

[twins1095]

 

There is more to baseball than just batting average.
Max Kepler has an .810 OPS versus lefies. Polanco has a .686 OPS versus lefies.
There is also the fact that any platoon partner with Kepler is going to be a steep downgrade on defense, as Kepler is an elite defensive corner outfielder.
Whereas a platoon partner for Polanco (Adrianza) would be a significant defensive upgrade, as Polanco is average to slightly below average defensively.

I would let him try to figure out left handed pitching, personally, especially since we have the luxury of a great lineup around him. But I don't find anything preposterous about the discussion, if you just look at the numbers versus lefies only.

I also couldn't find any examples of the author "complaining" about Polanco. Perhaps you could point them out to me.

 

For some context and maybe to prove I am not someone looking to smear Polanco.  Here is a Jorge Polanco appreciation post I made earlier this year:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33019-jorge-polanco-appreciation-thread/

 

Further, here is another post I made in May of 2018 in the 9th reply on a response on this thread: 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/29809-lets-talk-max-kepler-eddie-rosario-and-what-their-emergence-means-for-the-ceiling-of-the-twins-offensive-lineup/(

 

don't read the whole thing)

 

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2] I am a big fan and believer in Polanco, whether he sticks at SS or moves to 2B. I am NOT in Gordon, who I believe will be a fine player, but he is not yet a proven player and may need this year, and maybe part of 2019 before making his mark.

 

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Prelude

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I too am a big believer in Jorge Polanco, more so before the suspension for the positive PED test.However, I generally believe that in recent years we've seen inconclusive evidence that a player's success before getting caught for PEDs can't be repeated to at least some extent upon returning. 

Guys like Ryan Braun and Melky Cabrera have been able to relatively closely match their numbers post-ban with only marginal degrees of drop-off.I believe that the edge players get from PEDs is in their ability to remain healthier, recover faster from nagging injuries, and stay fresher over the course of a long season.It's probably also true that PEDs are a shortcut to gaining muscle mass--but I think it's just that, a shortcut.

 

Most importantly, I don't think PEDs have much, if any correlation, to the most important skill in baseball...that is...the ability to square up and hit a baseball.Polanco is an extremely talented hitter with a very strong pedigree and track record of production offensively.The guy has great hands, hand-eye, and good bat-speed and is just simply a natural hitter--or at least that's been his strength coming up through the minors and when he's on in the majors.

 

I would be a lot more worried about a positive test if Polanco was a pure power guy such as a Logan Morrison or Miguel Sano...I think a power hitter that relies on that skill largely to differentiate themselves as a hitter faces a ton more questions than a guy who's a smaller-in-stature-line drive/gap/pull it to the corner HR guy like Polanco.In my mind, the positive PED test raises questions about his ultimate future power potential in terms of HRs, not his ability to be an above average MLB hitter.

 

Polanco hit 10 HRs, 15 2Bs, and 2 3Bs in 63 second half games last season for per 162 game paces of 39 2Bs, 26 HRs, and 5 3Bs.The positive PED test puts into question whether he continues to show the surprising mid-to-high 20 HR power he did in last year's second half...instead of the mid-to-high teens HR guy he was thought of prior to last season's power explosion.

 

2 seasons ago, in 53 second half games, Polanco hit 12 doubles, 4 3Bs, and 3 HRs for 162 game paces of 37 doubles, 12 3Bs, 10 HRs.I think it's much more likely his per game production is something more similar to this kind of line-drive/gaps/XBH power than the over-the-fence/HR power he showed last season--especially after the positive PED test.

 

So while the positive PED test muddies the waters to some extent about Polanco's production upon his return and his ultimate ceiling--especially power-wise, I don't think it bars Polanco from the Twins future plans should he prove to have the work ethic to get himself into shape and stay off the PEDs in the future.

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Prior to Polanco's suspension this offseason, I wrote an analysis that's partially my own, but als gathering some analysis written by fangraphs writer Brandon Warne and others regarding Polanco's potential and their excitement for the young player.I'm going to copy and paste that reddit post following this:

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I'm a huge Polanco believer. He advanced through the minors so quickly with a lot of success, it's not surprising he's been a little inconsistent at the major league level. The dude is just a downright solid hitter.

 

I'm a big analytics junkie especially in baseball--so I'm a big Fangraphs guy. Fangraphs is absolutely massive on Polanco.

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Here's there projections for this year:

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Polanco won't wow you with any individual attributes, but instead of flash, he's just downright solid. His season numbers in 2017 aren't terribly impressive -- .256/.313/.410 -- but he ended the year blazing hot after an early-season stretch where he faltered badly at the plate, and perhaps not inconsequentially, lost his grandfather. When Polanco woke up on Aug. 1, his season line was .213/.265/.305; from that point on – 55 games – he hit a blistering .316/.377/.553 with 10 homers, 15 doubles and seven steals. Those are 162-game paces of 30 homers, 45 doubles and 21 steals! He won't post a .900-plus OPS, but this is a guy you should be targeting after the studs at shortstop.

 

Polanco had a horrible start to last season, but he also was horribly unlucky. Even after his crazy stretch in August/September, his BABIP was only .278. This is from a guy who's BABIP in the minors was in the .310-.330 range consistently.

 

Polanco has a great command of the strike-zone and an elite ability to make solid contact and drive balls. It's not a surprise he's such an XBH machine.

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Fangraph's writers across the board love Polanco and his contact skills, here's another article written about Polanco in early January: https://www.fangraph...-watch-in-2018/

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Here's another writers Polanco analysis:

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In his pre-season player profile last year I wrote the following of Polanco:

 

Polanco doesn’t have a lot of power, but he actually led all MLB shortstops in line drive percentage (30%), and already shows he can pull the ball effectively (41%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see just enough pop in 2017 to make Polanco a cheap middle infield source of slightly above average power/speed (think 20 HR+SB).

 

The switch-hitting Polanco made good on that analysis, combining for 26 HR + SB and a .253/.313/.410 line in 133 games.

 

What I didn’t expect was that he’d accomplish almost all of it in just half a season, hitting 10 of his 13 home runs in August/September and swiping 7 bases in that timeframe in six less games. Polanco’s effort to change his approach clearly paid off, (.293/.359/.511), and he’s young enough (just 24) that it’s not unreasonable to expect many of those gains to stick around for 2018.

 

Polanco finished the 2017 season with career marks in contact rate (86.5%), swinging strike rate (5.8%), and hard hit rate (27.7%). I’m excited to see what might be next for this MIN post-hype prospect.

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Here's one last article from November that has the punchline I'm getting to in it...

 

Article: https://www.fangraph...ospects-part-1/

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Polanco Player Analysis #3

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I remember reading and hearing about Polanco on Twins prospect lists for several years, but then once he came up to the majors… nothing! I’m not talking about 2014-15 when his two sips of coffee combined for 20 PA, but even in 2016 when he played 69 (nice!) games there wasn’t any real chatter surrounding him. Then this past season he slogged through 78 games with a .570 OPS before rallying to the finish line with a fantastic .931 OPS in 55 games including 10 HR and 7 SB. Only then did he get a little buzz, but even that was muted by fellow second tier prospect Eddie Rosario (.889 2H OPS). Perhaps Polanco could be on something of a Jose Ramirez track.

 

It’s not a perfect comparison as I think Polanco trades some of the contact and speed of Ramirez for more ready-made power, but both are switch-hitting power/speed middle infielders who were up at 20 years old logging MLB time. Again, Polanco tallied just 20 total PA in 2014-15 while Ramirez had 280 through his age-21 season, but Polanco turned around his struggles quicker than Ramirez had through age-22 (78 wRC+ in 625 PA) so he may not need as many reps to make the leap. The beauty with Polanco is that his first half overshadows his final two months on the bottom line so there won’t be a ton of attention on him come draft day. Scoop him up on the cheap!

 

The writer loosely compares Polanco to Jose Ramirez and while Polanco likely isn't quite that good...he's still really good.

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Polanco's 2017/18 162 Game Pace/Production Per Game Stats

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Polanco's stats last year on 162 game pace were roughly(with slight embellishment):

.260/.315/.410/.725 with 75 runs - 36 2B - 4 3B - 16 HR - 90 RBI - 16 SB and a .280 BABIP that suggests even more positive regression in that line.

 

Like the articles have pointed out, Polanco has reached the majors at the age of 20 and while he hasn't quite consistently established himself...players like Polanco who rise that quickly and face development levels way past their age-group can get slightly soured by groups of fans who don't understand that most of Polanco's peers were still in the low-minors. Polanco shouldn't be penalized for that.

 

His career 162 game average isn't bad either and are just under:

 

.270/.325/.420/.765 with 70 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 15 HR - 80 RBI - 15 SB

 

Projections have him pretty close to that line(162 game pace):

 

.275/.330/.425/.755 with 83 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 17 HR - 83 RBI - 17 SB

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I think that's roughly a pretty fair over under for Polanco, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Polanco take an Eddie Rosario type jump and approach .290 or even higher with 40+ combined 2B/3B's and approaching 20 HRs. His run and rbi totals will depend on his lineup spot.

 

Regardless, if Polanco can put up numbers somewhere between those two lines...holy moly should Twins fans have a lot to be excited about. I really think he can. His hitting skills, ability to make hard contact, and ability to command the strike zone are all legit. I'd be really disappointed if Polanco can't establish himself this season.

 

Defensively, I think Polanco's best position long-term is probably 2B. But I was pleasantly surprised with his ability at SS last season and while he'll likely never be a guy with a glove that is a real plus his ability to not be a huge minus defensively and play both MI spots will allow his bat to play.

 

Guys, Polanco is ONLY 24.

 

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Who knows if Polanco will reach his potential, but I really think he's he's got a make-up that suggests he could be a good one. The biggest concern for me is the lower exit velocity, that stat seems to contradict a lot of the other metrics in his profile. Some of that could be because he's not a big guy or a huge power guy in terms of mammoth home runs. I'm not sure...we'll see. I'm optimistic. Having his kind of bat at 2B/SS could be a huge luxury.

 

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Post Analysis Post Thoughts

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Some of this will be reiterating what was written in those paragraphs, but Polanco's great really good hit tools.He's got a really good approach at the plate, a great command for the strike zone, and elite elite ability to make contact.His 86.5% contact rate and 5.8% meaning that he's got absolutely elite bat control and almost never misses, especially on balls inside the zone.His 8ish% walk rate puts him very solidly above average, he's no Rosario and this rate shows that he can both make contact as well as get on base at an above average level.Further, his 14.3% strikeout rate was near Mauer-esque in terms of limiting strikeouts.

 

Many guys who make a lot of contact do so while protecting the plate and making weak/singles type of contact.Polanco mashes the ball and led all MLB shortstops in line drive% with 30%.Basically, Polanco is a switch-hitting extra base machine that makes a ton of really solid contact driving the ball in gaps all over the field.He's tries to yank and pull balls over the fence at times if he gets one in his wheelhouse, but generally spreads the ball really well to all fields. 

 

It remains to be seen how he can perform after returning from the suspension, but Polanco is just 24 and the same age as Buxton and has had 2 stints of extremely successful seasons at the MLB level at age 22 and 23 after reaching the majors for the first time at just 20 years old. I was most excited for Polanco this offseason and I really hope he can regain form.

 

 

[twins1095]

 

I see improvement which can only continue with opportunities to increase his comfort on both sides.  I am not in favor, but when the circumstances put one of the few topflight pitchers in his way they can wisely give him a day of rest. 

 

I definitely agree that improvement should continue for Polanco with more opportunities.  However, this season... in game 2 of the playoffs or in a final week series...facing a top-flight left-handed pitcher...do you trot Polanco out in the #2 hole and have confidence?  

 

Again the numbers this season and last season for that matter say he's arguably your worst hitter against LHPs.  He's worse than Adrianza in terms of OPS cumulatively against LHPs and that includes a season in which Adrianza could only bat from the left-side (if I recall correctly) due to injuries and issues switch hitting.  Do you have confidence that you are optimizing your lineup this season in that situation if Polanco is in the #2 hole against an elite left-hander?

 

I say that based on the numbers I do not have a ton of confidence that Polanco is your best option in that spot.  From there, there's a conversation to be had...what is your best option?  Is the best option to move Polanco down in the order?  Platoon?  

 

I would 100% advocate for bringing Polanco in as soon as you get to the bullpen or against a righty in the pen in any situation where he sits.  I also really want Polanco to be better than he has been against righties.  He has not been good thus far.