Article: Let's Make A Deal (Arbitration Edition)

[yarnivek1972]

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

In reality, the “extra year” probably will end up helping Buxton financially.

 

Let’s say Buxton continues to be all glove, no hit (OPS+ in the 80s). He’ll have an extra year of arbitration instead of being a free agent. As a free agent with that resume, he’d be lucky to get a guaranteed MLB contract. In arbitration, he figures to get steady raises. Of course, if Buxton is still OPS+ in the 80 range, the Twins could (and probably should) release or non-tender him before his 4th year of arbitration.

 

 

Conversely, let’s say he gets it together and maybe OPS+ of 100-110 for his final 2 years of arb. Well, if he was a FA a year earlier, would a team be convinced the one season was real or would he have to settle for a “prove it” deal? But with that second year of success, a team - likely several teams - would be willing to roll the dice. Now he hits FA at a still young 29 at his apex and can probably pick his team.

 

The only way this ends up costing Buxton any serious amount of money is if he does well the next three years and then gets hurt in 2022.

 

It should be noted that if he does well the next 3 years, it’s pretty likely he is offered an extension. If he doesn’t take it, well. That’s on him.

[ewen21]

With regard to this side discussion on offense vs.defense and which has more value, I ask everyone this:

 

Would you rather have been the Red Sox or the Diamondbacks last year?  The Diamondbacks had the most defensive runs saved BY FAR with 157 and the Red Sox were down at 23rd with -26 for a DRS.  Saving 157 is RIDICULOUS and Arizona was 82-80.  Guess who scored the most runs in baseball in 2017?  Houston and they had -11 defensive runs saved.  Didn't seem to matter that much because they hit.  Saving runs is a good thing.  I want guys saving runs as much as possible, but what are we talking about here?    THis is about putting it in its proper perspective. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by ewen21