Marte signing with Rays

[Mr. Brooks]

No, I can't imagine he's the only player to have a delayed physical, and if it's due to visa issues that totally makes sense. That still puts the failed physical 2 months prior to any indication the Twins had decided to step away and had regained IBP $.

 

Fair enough, I guess I view it a little more black and white. He has obviously been extensively scouted and the vision issue didn't affect those reports. If the Twins aren't comfortable committing $3M to him after the physical it's absolutely fine, but the renewed interest is where I get lost. I'm in the camp of either they think he can play or he can't. If they truly think the vision will be problematic down the line then by all means walk away, but the discomfort with offering $3M vs. the comfort/interest with whatever lower number rubs me the wrong way.

 

I'm not certain how many/what other factors played into other teams interest in him at this point. TB did trade one of their own prospects just to add IBP $ to sign him so not all clubs may be on the same page in terms of how the vision issued is viewed.

That's not how risk and value work though. There is no such thing as knowing which guys will make it and which won't. You evaluate a bunch of stuff, including risk and upside to figure a value.

 

A previously unknown physical issue adds risk. That doesn't mean he no longer has a chance to make it, but if that likelihood is lowered, and probably the upside is lowered ad well, then he has less value.

 

Sometimes issues come up at inspection when you buy a house. That doesn't mean you automatically walk away. It could be something that causes you to walk away, but more often it causes you to offer less for the house.

Same goes for a used car. Or any number of other contractual situations. It's not uncommon to try to renegotiate a new price when previously unknown conditions arise.

[KirbyDome89]

 

That's not how risk and value work though. There is no such thing as knowing which guys will make it and which won't. You evaluate a bunch of stuff, including risk and upside to figure a value.

A previously unknown physical issue adds risk. That doesn't mean he no longer has a chance to make it, but if that likelihood is lowered, and probably the upside is lowered ad well, then he has less value.

Sometimes issues come up at inspection when you buy a house. That doesn't mean you automatically walk away. It could be something that causes you to walk away, but more often it causes you to offer less for the house.
Same goes for a used car. Or any number of other contractual situations. It's not uncommon to try to renegotiate a new price when previously unknown conditions arise.

I'm not proclaiming they can predict with 100% certainty who will and won't make it, the point was that teams don't invest resources into players they don't believe can help. 

 

"if that likelihood is lowered, and probably the upside is lowered ad well, then he has less value."

 

If we can agree that projecting MLB futures is an inexact science then can we also agree that the italicized is full of presumptions? 

 

Apples and oranges. We aren't talking about a house or a used car, we're talking about a 16 year old kid. The Twins leveraged a "condition," which hasn't had any effect on his performance thus far and has 0 promise to do so moving forward, for the chance to get a discount. If we're talking from strictly a business standpoint they're well within their rights to operate in the way they have, but ethically I have some issues with the decision. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Then why did he only garner 800k on the open market? Did the other teams conspire to keep his price low in order to make the Twins look good? If it wasn't a legit concern, he'd have gotten close to $3 million from another club.

 

 

If he failed his physical, which would be an explicit condition of the contract, it doesn't mean the Twins didn't believe in him.

The fact that he only got 800k should eliminate any concerns that the Twins just changed their minds on him. Clearly the market agrees that his physical condition no longer makes him worthy of a $3 million bonus.

 

Marte signed that contract in July. It's mid December. By early November only two teams aside from MN (Yankees and Rangers) had $3M to spend. In fact at that time, over a month ago mind you, only seven teams had more than the $800K that Marte just signed for, and the Rays just had to make a trade with one of those teams (Seattle) to get to that number. The market today vs. the market July 2nd is vastly different so the fact another team didn't jump up and offer him another $3M contract isn't particularly indicitive of anything other than the fact teams didn't have near the $ resources at their disposal at this point in the year. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's not how risk and value work though. There is no such thing as knowing which guys will make it and which won't. You evaluate a bunch of stuff, including risk and upside to figure a value.

A previously unknown physical issue adds risk. That doesn't mean he no longer has a chance to make it, but if that likelihood is lowered, and probably the upside is lowered ad well, then he has less value.

Sometimes issues come up at inspection when you buy a house. That doesn't mean you automatically walk away. It could be something that causes you to walk away, but more often it causes you to offer less for the house.
Same goes for a used car. Or any number of other contractual situations. It's not uncommon to try to renegotiate a new price when previously unknown conditions arise.

 

and honestly, this is exactly what it looks like here.

 

I'd add that usually these payouts are not always structured in a lump sum. It's quite possible he got a portion of that 3M, and in that scenario, it's also quite likely he didn't have to return it. That hasn't been addressed, but it probably should be.

[snap4birds]

 

I think it was an injury of convenience and in the midst of all our essays about the genius FO pair we might have to put this on the not-to-genius list. 

I've felt all along the eye issue was legit.  But your post reminded me of one thing I just read elsewhere, that most of these international signings are worked out in advance.  I just read another post that most of the J2 2018 contracts are agreed to already.  If this is true, it's possible that Terry Ryan had agreed to a deal with Marte, but maybe Falvine weren't as enthusiastic about him, but didn't want to back out of an agreed upon deal.  So now, I'm a little more open to the 'conspiracy theory' that the eye issue wasn't the primary factor in voiding the contract, just a convenient excuse.  But I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt....

[mikelink45]

 

Then why did he only garner 800k on the open market? Did the other teams conspire to keep his price low in order to make the Twins look good? If it wasn't a legit concern, he'd have gotten close to $3 million from another club.

I cannot answer that, but another club now has a player that the Twins signed, then dropped, then tried to sign again.  Like all new recruits we have to wait and see. 

[mikelink45]

 

I've felt all along the eye issue was legit.  But your post reminded me of one thing I just read elsewhere, that most of these international signings are worked out in advance.  I just read another post that most of the J2 2018 contracts are agreed to already.  If this is true, it's possible that Terry Ryan had agreed to a deal with Marte, but maybe Falvine weren't as enthusiastic about him, but didn't want to back out of an agreed upon deal.  So now, I'm a little more open to the 'conspiracy theory' that the eye issue wasn't the primary factor in voiding the contract, just a convenient excuse.  But I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt....

Thanks for that scoop!  I had never read or thought of that.