2017 MLB draft thread

[gunnarthor]

 

I was thinking about this today. I've seen a bunch of scouting reports that say Wright has a higher floor but isn't that kind of a weird thing to say? Isn't the floor with all of these kids to not ever make it to the majors? I went back and looked at some scouting reports and Matusz and Appel both said they were a #3 starter at worst. It seems like the high floor label is kind of irrelevant

Yeah but some players odds of topping out at AA are higher than others. It's not like Wright and Greene have the same chance of not making the majors. Usually, as I understand it, when prospect guys are talking about a floor, they are meaning "this is the floor that we see for this guy, barring injuries, based on the future expectation of the tools we see today."  So, Appel, for instance, might not become an ace with two plus pitches and command/control but the expectation of at least one plus pitch and at least average command/control made his floor a #3.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You're minimizing his offenses for whatever reason you have, and you know it. But I agree that he might be a good bet at 35/37. I'll bet the Twins have discussed him extensively, and are regarding his off-feild issues from a clear lens.

 

I have to admit that there's a sizable amount of risk here at 35/37.  I like the idea of picking him up here, as he has value at that.  We need pitching that can advance quick and having a Wright/Romero combo here would make me happy if they also grabbed a falling HS pitcher... but that said... there's a lot of risk on this one.  This is a guy that I would hope that the Twins have really done their homework with.

 

Side note, but if they cut a deal below slot that reduces a lot of that risk and gives them some flexibility.  I think there's a very good chance he's there at 37, and he could fall farther due to his off field issues. His agent has to know that.

[twinsfanstreif]

I have to admit that there's a sizable amount of risk here at 35/37. I like the idea of picking him up here, as he has value at that. We need pitching that can advance quick and having a Wright/Romero combo here would make me happy if they also grabbed a falling HS pitcher... but that said... there's a lot of risk on this one. This is a guy that I would hope that the Twins have really done their homework with.

 

Side note, but if they cut a deal below slot that reduces a lot of that risk and gives them some flexibility. I think there's a very good chance he's there at 37, and he could fall farther due to his off field issues. His agent has to know that.

His agent is boras though so anything goes, Boras has been known to advise his clients to go to independent ball, didn't he do that with Aaron Crow?

[drjim]

New BA mock is up:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-4-0/#yckDButSR2R4CpKz.97

 

Still Wright at #1, pick #35 would make some of us really happy.

[magiklair]

I really hope the twins pick Hunter Greene,. Dave Winfield said he is one of the best two-way prospects in draft history.. If pitching doesn't work you have a fallback option.

[markos]

 

I was thinking about this today. I've seen a bunch of scouting reports that say Wright has a higher floor but isn't that kind of a weird thing to say? Isn't the floor with all of these kids to not ever make it to the majors? I went back and looked at some scouting reports and Matusz and Appel both said they were a #3 starter at worst. It seems like the high floor label is kind of irrelevant

When scouts or analysts talk about the 'floor' or 'ceiling' for prospects, I think there is a built-in, unspoken acknowledgement that the ultimate floor of every single prospect is "didn't make the majors", and the ultimate ceiling of every single prospect is "among the best players in baseball". But the interesting part is the risk distribution. In my own mental framework, I assume that they are really talking about the 10th-percentile outcome as the 'floor' and the 90th-percentile outcome as the 'ceiling'. The tail outcomes end up being basically the same for all players, so they are left unsaid.

[gunnarthor]

I liked this bit from BA's mock draft article

 

"“I recognize the focus on the No. 1 pick,” Falvey said, “but we’re no less focused on 35 and 37 . . . Mike and DJ and (pro scouting director) Vern Followell have all been out with Sean, and (crosschecker) Tim O’Neil could be a scouting director for anybody. We’ve got so much experience and history, and we’re just trying to get the right blend of the ridiculous amount of experience we have here together with a systemic approach that may not have been here before.”"

[Einstein1]

New Jim Callis mock is up.  He still has Kyle Wright going to the Twins at 1-1. 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/235304580/round-1-forecast-mlb-draft-starts-monday/?topicid=151437456

[gunnarthor]

 

New Jim Callis mock is up.  He still has Kyle Wright going to the Twins at 1-1. 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/235304580/round-1-forecast-mlb-draft-starts-monday/?topicid=151437456

I wish pipeline would do the entire first round. Seems pretty lazy for mlb's own site not to cover that.

[twinsfanstreif]

Is it weird that the player that makes me most nervous to pass on is Gore and not Greene? I see a lot of Kershaw in that kid, he's notably smaller than Kershaw was/is leading some scouts to compare him more to Hammels (which is not bad either) but his stuff is much better than Hammels was at his age and Hammels had an injury history whereas Gore does not

[drjim]

Is it weird that the player that makes me most nervous to pass on is Gore and not Greene? I see a lot of Kershaw in that kid, he's notably smaller than Kershaw was/is leading some scouts to compare him more to Hammels (which is not bad either) but his stuff is much better than Hammels was at his age and Hammels had an injury history whereas Gore does not

Not weird. Personally I would take Gore #2 after Wright.

[hugelycat]

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs released his KATOH projection system's top 250 draft-eligible college player rankings today. The rankings include hitters and pitchers together. While I wouldn't let these projections change my thinking on the draft, they are fun to see. 

 

Some ranks for players we've been discussing:

 

Brendan McKay: #1 (as P); #191 (as 1B)

Tanner Houck: #5

JB Bukauskas: #6

Kyle Wright: #10

Alex Faedo: #27

Seth Romero: #31

Pavin Smith: #32

Jeren Kendall: #43

[Einstein1]

Callis has already updated his mock with Brendan McKay to Twins now instead of Kyle Wright.  It's going to be an interesting few days. 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/234660412/2017-draft-buzz-what-callis-mayo-are-hearing/?topicid=151437456

[gunnarthor]

 

Callis has already updated his mock with Brendan McKay to Twins now instead of Kyle Wright.  It's going to be an interesting few days. 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/234660412/2017-draft-buzz-what-callis-mayo-are-hearing/?topicid=151437456

I wonder if this has anything to do with McKay's price or Wright's mechanics, as Jeremy hinted at.

[twinsfanstreif]

Callis has already updated his mock with Brendan McKay to Twins now instead of Kyle Wright. It's going to be an interesting few days.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/234660412/2017-draft-buzz-what-callis-mayo-are-hearing/?topicid=151437456

 

Oh no! McKay is the only one out of the top 5 I absolutely don't want, let's hope this is bad infp

[markos]

 

I wonder if this has anything to do with McKay's price or Wright's mechanics, as Jeremy hinted at.

Certainly seems like it would be money related at this point.

[drjim]

Maybe McKay as a hitter at a little bit of a discount.

[gunnarthor]

 

Maybe McKay as a hitter at a little bit of a discount.

Callis is reporting that the Twins like him as a pitcher.

[InfraRen]

McKay at this point would be a huge disappointment IMO. 

 

I was a Greene guy, but was good with Wright the last couple weeks.

 

No thanks on McKay over both, even if $ saved.

[drjim]

Callis is reporting that the Twins like him as a pitcher.

I don't like this at all.

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't like this at all.

I'm on Wright but it could be ok if the Twins think McKay's recent velocity dip is due to a new pitch. Or if it allows us to nab Baz at 35. Or they think Wright has bad mechanics. But, generally, I agree. I think Wright is the better pitcher.

[Einstein1]

FYI, McKay and Louisville will be on ESPN tomorrow morning (11am) in their Super Regional game against Kentucky if you want to check him out.  Interestingly, he will be facing Mahtomedi's Sean Hjelle.  

[Thrylos]

From what I have been hearing McKay's secondary stuff is more advanced than Wright's and if this is truth, I'd take the lefty.

 

One more consideration about the "velocity drop":  Wright (and pretty much every other pitcher) gets 6 days of rest between starts.  McKay takes batting practice, hits, plays the field and runs the bases between starts.

 

Subtract that activity and replace it with rest between starts, and I suspect that his fastball will be up there

 

I really wouldn't be disappointed if they took any College pitcher who can be there and help them when the young core is still intact.  I will be disappointed if they buy on the hype about Greene or if they get a position player they don't need.

[drivlikejehu]

Rumors like this make me wonder if the Twins are trying to create what little leverage they can to pay Greene just above 2nd pick slot money. Not huge savings, but if someone did fall to #35, they could go cheap at #37 and have enough to pay mid-first round money.

[markos]

 

One more consideration about the "velocity drop":  Wright (and pretty much every other pitcher) gets 6 days of rest between starts.  McKay takes batting practice, hits, plays the field and runs the bases between starts.

 

Subtract that activity and replace it with rest between starts, and I suspect that his fastball will be up there

But McKay is also going to switch to pitching every 5 days instead of once a week, so there is a real chance that he ends up losing velocity from that. So even if he benefits from not hitting, he is going to be hurt by pitching more often. I think it will be a wash. 

 

Maybe it will end up working out, but I think it is crazy to draft a guy who throws 89-91 with the 1-1 pick.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Maybe it will end up working out, but I think it is crazy to draft a guy who throws 89-91 with the 1-1 pick.

 

Well... if this guy is a lefty and has been the most effective College pitcher the last 3 seasons, velocity or not, in a major conference, you kinda got to take him, no?

[Thrylos]

 

But McKay is also going to switch to pitching every 5 days instead of once a week, so there is a real chance that he ends up losing velocity from that.

 

So will the rest who are not playing the field like McKay does.

[nicksaviking]

Well... if this guy is a lefty and has been the most effective College pitcher the last 3 seasons, velocity or not, in a major conference, you kinda got to take him, no?

Sure, if your picking 6th.

 

Rare is the most productive college player the pick at 1:1 in any draft in any sport.

[twinsfanstreif]

I heard something interesting today. On the MLB.com podcast today with Callis and Mayo, they stated that Greene was a near lock to the Reds at #2 if the Twins pass. It was stated early on that he did not want to go to the Reds (not sure if that was by him or just rumors). What if he is willing to cut a deal with the Twins so he doesn't have to go to the Reds? That would be a very interesting twist for sure!

 

Another note is they said Mackenzie Gore is in Minnesota today to meet with the Twins as well. Could mean nothing but they did say that we rarely do this and we brought in Correa in 2012 and invited Buxton who had a commitment. While it is true that we can't bring in the college guys as they are still playing, it does show that we have serious interest in these two which makes me excited

[benji21]

Sure, if your picking 6th.

 

Rare is the most productive college player the pick at 1:1 in any draft in any sport.

Agreed. Just look at a bunch of former heissman trophy winners for instance. Manziel, leinart, RG3, Troy smith, and a bunch more I won't bore you with. Anyways, I like your point.