Sortable catch probability

[AlwaysinModeration]

They now have a sortable page up where you can look at opportunities and conversion rates of outfielders on 5-star, 4-star, etc.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard?min=25&year=2017

 

I'd suggest that this forum be a place to discuss these stats throughout the year. They are new, so it is going to take some time to get used to them in order to figure out what they mean. For example, Buxton is currently (as of 5/31/17) 0 for 7 on 5-star plays. Meanwhile, Ender Inciarte has converted 4 of 7 of his 5-star opportunities. Does this mean Inciarte is the better outfielder?

 

Perhaps one way to start looking at these stats is to look at all of the 4 and 5 star plays together. That represents all of the balls that 50% of outfielders wouldn't normally catch. Here is a short list, of all outfielders who have recorded at least 6 of these plays on the year:

 

Jarrod Dyson 9 out of 14 = 64.2%

Odubel Herrera 7 out of 12 = 58.3%

Byron Buxton 10 out of 18 = 55.5%

Jackie Bradley 7 out of 13 = 53.8%

Kevin Kiermaier 6 out of 13 = 46.2%

Ender Inciarte 9 out of 24 = 37.5%

Mookie Betts 7 out of 19 = 36.8%

Keon Broxton. 6 out of 19 = 31.6%

 

Other players of note: Max Kepler, 2 for 6, Alex Gordon 1 for 8, Aaron Hicks 0 for 11, Mike Trout 0 for 7, and Denard Span 1 for 10, Billy Hamilton 4 for 12.

 

Is this a good way of looking at it? Then again, Dyson has missed two 3-star oppportunites this year, as has Jackie Bradley, while Buxton hasn't missed any.

 

This would be an interesting set of stats to monitor throughout the season.

[The Wise One]

  What is a 1-5 star catch is really immaterial. Speed of the outfielder to get to the ball plays a role in how good the outfielder is for a factor. When you factor in speed of the outfielder and speed of the ball to go with the hang time and reaction time it becomes yes or no on what is the outfielder's territory and the catches they should make.   Catches on/over the fence are athletic plays. Not so much speed distance as it is timing. That is not measured.  The old line about it is the best tool the fans have does ring true, but really will not tell you who the better outfielder is. It does not measure arm and holding runners. It does not measure getting to a ball fast enough to prevent the runner(s) taking the extra base

Sortable? can't find grossman's numbers

 

Inside edge on fangraphs has been around a few years

[AlwaysinModeration]

This definitely doesn't include all of the factors that go into making a good outfielder. Playing the wall and arm strength / accuracy in throwing out runners not included. However, it does shed some light on which players make the best reads, take the best routes and are fastest (and likely make best plays on balls nearly hitting the ground).

 

It's a small sample size of two months, but that list of eight players who have made 6 or more 4 and 5 star catches looks like a pretty strong list of the best outfielders to me.

 

Grossman is on there. Just need to set filter to 0, not 25. He is 0-4 on 4/5 star opportunities, and 9-9 on 1-2 star opportunities.