Much Ado About One Sample Point-- And I'm Wrong

[caninatl04]

Many different threads have been discussing the prowess of the Twins' drafting in recent years, especially when it comes to pitching, and starting pitching in particular.  I want to massively over emphasize a single data point. 

 

Tonight, the Red Wings were over matched by Aaron Nola, who's ERA over his last 2 starts, both against the Red Wings, is 0.87.

 

Now, no one would confuse the current Red Wings hitters with the '27 Yankees, but Nola is impressive and the kind of AAA pitcher that we, collectively, yearn for.

 

He was drafted in 2014.  And here are the top draft picks: 

 

1 Brady Aiken* Houston Astros Left-handed pitcher Cathedral Catholic High School (CA)
2  Tyler Kolek  Miami Marlins Right-handed pitcher Shepherd High School (TX)
3  Carlos Rodon  Chicago White Sox Left-handed pitcher NC State
4  Kyle Schwarber  Chicago Cubs Catcher Indiana
5  Nick Gordon  Minnesota Twins Shortstop Olympia High School (FL)
6 Alex Jackson  Seattle Mariners Outfielder Rancho Bernardo High School (CA)
7  Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies Right-handed pitcher LSU

8 Kyle Freeland Colorado Rockies Left-handed pitcher Evansville
9 Jeff Hoffman Toronto Blue Jays Right-handed pitcher East Carolina
10 Michael Conforto New York Mets Outfielder Oregon State
11 Max Pentecost Toronto Blue Jays[Compensation 1] Catcher Kennesaw State
12 Kodi Medeiros Milwaukee Brewers Left-handed pitcher Waiakea High School (HI)
13 Trea Turner San Diego Padres Shortstop NC State
14 Tyler Beede San Francisco Giants Right-handed pitcher Vanderbilt
15 Sean Newcomb Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Left-handed pitcher Hartford
16 Touki Toussaint Arizona Diamondbacks Right-handed pitcher Coral Springs Christian Academy (FL)
17 Brandon FinneganKansas City Royals Left-handed pitcher TCU

I have never been an apologist for the previous regime, but knowing what we know now, yes, it would have been nice to have someone like Nola in AAA, but didn't they make a good choice all things considered?

 

Note:  Aiken didn't sign

 

 

[drjim]

It's way early to know either way. If he sticks at SS, it is quite possible Nick Gordon ends up as the best player out of that draft.

[diehardtwinsfan]

the quibble on Nola was that he lacked top end stuff but would be quick to the majors.  A lot of people here didn't want him for that projection alone... I wasn't a fan of the Gordon pick either, but in retrospect, both were very good picks.  Had we known Palacios and Aarez (though he's more of a question mark due to injury) would do what they have done so far, passing up on Gordon for Nola would make sense...

 

but hindsight is always 20/20.  It's really hard to fault the FO here. 

[70charger]

I remember the run-up to that draft fairly well. The consensus on Nola (here) was "high-floor, quick to the majors, lacks stuff... gee that sounds like Wimmers." People would have crucified the Twins for having taken him.

 

But hey, hindsight means never having to admit you were wrong.

[howieramone2]

If we had been in the win now mode, Nola would have been the pick. I've never been good at predicting picks, but in this one I wanted Trea Turner. I'm very happy with the progress Gordon continues to make. Not sure why Vielma was promoted over him.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no issues with the Gordon pick at this time.

 

It would be great to have Trea Turner instead....but no issues.

[mikelink45]

I enjoy this reflections but have to admit I have no basis for judgment except for the promotion to the majors so my angst over starting pitching is because we now have Berrios up and no one else seems to be ready to fill the rotation that disparately needs a fifth starter.  

I read the current projections and profiles and remember when the Yankees drafted Brien Taylor and everyone thought they had the next Sandy Koufax http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-draft-picks-mlb-draft-prospects/2016/6/6/11861684/yankees-worst-draft-picks-all-time-brien-taylor-henson-brackman-duncan-lyttle.  

 

Baseball drafting is so much less precise than football and basketball (where they still fail).  I am most interested in the development, more than the draft.