Twins international signings for 2016

[gunnarthor]

BA says the period is finalized and are doing write ups on everyteam.  Most is behind a paywall but this isn't:

 

"When the Twins signed Dominican shortstop Wander Javier for $4 million in 2015, they put all of their bonus pool money for 2015-16 into one player, supplementing the class with signings of $10,000 or less exempt from the bonus pools. They switched things up with a different approach in 2016-17, avoiding seven-figure deals and spreading their money around to a wider variety of players. The Twins also opened a new academy in the Dominican Republic, where they will send all of their 2016 signings to debut in the Dominican Summer League."
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-reviews-minnesota-twins-2016/#wT16wa9XwEjqB8TR.99

 

The Twins signed 24 international players with the most money going to Wander Valdez (495k).  

[diehardtwinsfan]

honestly, that isn't a bad approach as lots of good players can be found cheaply there, so a lot of signings makes sense... I'd probably prefer a bit more on the higher profile side of things but this is definitely an area where quantity can trump quality.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't have a problem with an every other year strategy of quality/quantity.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I don't mind working both ways. The International free agent market is even tougher to do with certainty than even the MLB draft. The kids are even younger and are about to be taken out of their own culture and country. You never know. I like the idea of occasionally getting a big name guy, bu I also like getting quantity, also because you just never know. 

[Pitz]

17 year old Venezuelan signee Michael Montero got the 'opening day' start for the DSL Twins on Saturday and was impressive in his debut. The 6'3" 190lb righty pitched 4 innings giving up one hit and one walk while striking out 5. 

 

Fellow Venezuelan signee Fernando Sanchez (also 17 and right handed) pitched two innings in relief. He gave up 1 hit and 1 walk with 2 strikeouts in 2 innings. Sanchez is listed at 5'9" 155.

 

A third 17 year old Venezuelan pitcher saw action in Monday's game. Lefty Jesus Toledo (5'11" 180) pitched 2 innings giving up two hits and a walk and recorded one strikeout. Toledo was also credited with the win. 

 

I don't have a Baseball America subscription so I don't have much for details on their signings - but I do see Michael Montero listed so I imagine he received one of their higher bonuses. 

[nicksaviking]

I thought I'd do a bit of a dive on the subject, and I have to disagree about the idea that quantity trumps quality for the international guys.

 

Just about all the international guys we are excited about were signed for sizable bonuses. Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Lewis Thorpe, Lachlan Wells, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, Lewin Diaz, Wander Javier and Huscar Ynoa all went for well over 100K most getting at least half a million. Randy Rosario went for 85K which is still quite a bit. About the only big named international guys I can't find information on are Engleb Vielma, Luis Arraez and Jermaine Palacios and we were talking about Palacios when he was signed so he probably got a hefty sum.

 

I think the scouting on these guys is probably better then we assume, which likely is based on faulty stereotypes of information available from foreign countries about foreign citizens. This is still a huge industry, the billionaires running the show aren't going to waste millions of dollars on these kids when they can ship world class scouts and technology down to these countries to do a thorough vetting for a fraction of what it costs to sign the players.

 

[70charger]

 

I thought I'd do a bit of a dive on the subject, and I have to disagree about the idea that quantity trumps quality for the international guys.

 

Just about all the international guys we are excited about were signed for sizable bonuses. Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Lewis Thorpe, Lachlan Wells, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, Lewin Diaz, Wander Javier and Huscar Ynoa all went for well over 100K most getting at least half a million. Randy Rosario went for 85K which is still quite a bit. About the only big named international guys I can't find information on are Engleb Vielma, Luis Arraez and Jermaine Palacios and we were talking about Palacios when he was signed so he probably got a hefty sum.

 

I think the scouting on these guys is probably better then we assume, which likely is based on faulty stereotypes of information available from foreign countries about foreign citizens. This is still a huge industry, the billionaires running the show aren't going to waste millions of dollars on these kids when they can ship world class scouts and technology down to these countries to do a thorough vetting for a fraction of what it costs to sign the players.

 

There's a pretty vast difference between, say, signing one guy for $5 million or signing five guys for $1 million each. You may call the latter quantity over quality; I'd probably say it's both. Either way, before making any real statements on this, I'd assert the necessity of defining our terms. For example, a guy like Rosario at $85k - for me - definitely falls into the definition of a "quantity" guy. 

 

That said, when you get a chance to break the bank for a guy like Sano, for whatever reason, you do it.

[gunnarthor]

 

I thought I'd do a bit of a dive on the subject, and I have to disagree that about the quantity vs quality argument for the international guys.

 

Just about all the international guys we are excited about were signed for sizable bonuses. Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Lewis Thorpe, Lachlan Wells, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, Lewin Diaz, Wander Javier and Huscar Ynoa all went for well over 100K most getting at least half a million. Randy Rosario went for 85K which is still quite a bit. About the only big time international guys I can't find information on is Engleb Vielma, Luis Arraez and Jermaine Palacios and we were talking about Palacios when he was signed so he probably got a hefty sum.

.

I don't think that's quite true, at least as what we are calling sizeable bonuses. Kepler and Polanco were signed under old rules and both were barely in the top 20 of their years signing class. The 2011 signing class - also under the old rules - got us both Jorge and Romero. None of them were among the top 30 payouts - not even close. The 2012 group included 500k for Thorpe, which didn't crack the top 30 that year, either. Wells, signed in 2014, wasn't among the top 40 bonuses in his class.

 

So the Twins have had a number or guys who weren't highly thought of sign. That seems to be what they are doing last year with no one getting more than 450k or so.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think that's quite true, at least as what we are calling sizeable bonuses. Kepler and Polanco were signed under old rules and both were barely in the top 20 of their years signing class. The 2011 signing class - also under the old rules - got us both Jorge and Romero. None of them were among the top 30 payouts - not even close. The 2012 group included 500k for Thorpe, which didn't crack the top 30 that year, either. Wells, signed in 2014, wasn't among the top 40 bonuses in his class.

 

So the Twins have had a number or guys who weren't highly thought of sign. That seems to be what they are doing last year with no one getting more than 450k or so.

 

If anything, I'd think that would mean the team should aim higher because in almost every case, the guys they gave the biggest bonuses to in each class ended up being the best prospects. I don't think this is the crap shoot that we think it is. Regardless of where they are ranked, the Twins best paid international free agents are overwhelmingly ending up being the team's best international prospects.

 

Aside from the possibility of Vielma and Arraez, who I can't find signing information for, the lotto ticket guys don't appear to pay off. Don't give 20 guys 10K, give two guys 1M. Or one guy 2M. Or you know, do something really wild.

[gunnarthor]

 

If anything, I'd think that would mean the team should aim higher because in almost every case, the guys they gave the biggest bonuses to in each class ended up being the best prospects. I don't think this is the crap shoot that we think it is. 

 

I'm not sure there's enough evidence either way.  Again, look at some of those lists. There are some good players in there but there are also some busts.

 

Regardless of where they are ranked, the Twins best paid international free agents are overwhelmingly ending up being the team's best international prospects.

 

Aside from the possibility of Vielma and Arraez, who I can't find signing information for, the lotto ticket guys don't appear to pay off. Don't give 20 guys 10K, give two guys 1M. Or one guy 2M. Or you know, do something really wild.

Also, sorta depends on how you define "lotto guys." I think a guy who isn't getting top 20 money in his class is a lotto guy. The Twins have spent big, as well.  Amaurys Minier got the 7th highest bonus in 2012, Diaz got top 10 money in 2013. Javier got the 3rd highest in 2015. Giving 20 guys 250k-500k might get us something from 2016.  Thorpe, Jorge, Wells, Romero all fell in that price range.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

17 year old Venezuelan signee Michael Montero got the 'opening day' start for the DSL Twins on Saturday and was impressive in his debut. The 6'3" 190lb righty pitched 4 innings giving up one hit and one walk while striking out 5. 

 

Fellow Venezuelan signee Fernando Sanchez (also 17 and right handed) pitched two innings in relief. He gave up 1 hit and 1 walk with 2 strikeouts in 2 innings. Sanchez is listed at 5'9" 155.

 

A third 17 year old Venezuelan pitcher saw action in Monday's game. Lefty Jesus Toledo (5'11" 180) pitched 2 innings giving up two hits and a walk and recorded one strikeout. Toledo was also credited with the win. 

 

I don't have a Baseball America subscription so I don't have much for details on their signings - but I do see Michael Montero listed so I imagine he received one of their higher bonuses. 

None of those made it BA's International Review of 2016.  Wander Valdez (500K), Junior Navas (275K), Jesus Feliz (260K), Felix Reyes (200K), Prelander Berroa (200K), Frank Martinez (175K) , Estamy Urena (130K)

 

Wander Javier was pretty much the only big one for 2015 Review (4M) but for the 2014 review (Ynoa - 800K, Arias - 450K, Cuesto - 200K, Graterol - 150K, Mo Gomez 150K, Lachlan Wells 300K).

 

2013 Review:  Lewin Diaz (1.4M), Roni Tapia (550K), Molina (300K), Jose Martinez (340K), Morel (90K)

 

Graterol was signed days after turning 16 at the time he was throwing 86-89 mph with good touch on his offspeed stuff, including a curveball that’s more developed that his changeup.  Now his fastball is 95-98 with a good slider and curve.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, you have different standards than me.

To me, anyone under a million is a 'quantity' guy.

 

Edit: this is directed towards nicks dive.

[bird]

I'm also wondering if the whole quantity then quality alternate thing has been a real strategy, or if maybe that's just how things have shaken out opportunity-wise. Those signings are often the product of scouting relationships built up over time, not the function of some baseball exec plunking his fat fingers on a keyboard and deciding whether to add a zero to nail down a prospect.

 

The thing that's interesting to me is that the Twins have a couple of the 10 highest bonuses ever paid to-date to an IFA. If things were evenly distributed, they'd be tied for the highest dollar amount and would have 1 on the list, right?

 

Now, this year, they're linked to BA's 3rd-ranked prospect. And yet, we're wondering why they're not linked to more than just this one "top 30" prospect. (A whole bunch of teams are linked to none, right?) I'd submit that this link to "only one" has nothing to do with an intentional plan to forego the highest-quality prospects this year and instead bargain-shop, as so many suspect. I just think their list looks different than BA's.

[caninatl04]

 

 

Now, this year, they're linked to BA's 3rd-ranked prospect. And yet, we're wondering why they're not linked to more than just this one "top 30" prospect. (A whole bunch of teams are linked to none, right?) I'd submit that this link to "only one" has nothing to do with an intentional plan to forego the highest-quality prospects this year and instead bargain-shop, as so many suspect. I just think their list looks different than BA's.

 

Yes, Birdwatcher, it appears the Texas Rangers are linked to several Top 30 IFA's.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure there's enough evidence either way.  Again, look at some of those lists. There are some good players in there but there are also some busts.

 

 

Also, sorta depends on how you define "lotto guys." I think a guy who isn't getting top 20 money in his class is a lotto guy. The Twins have spent big, as well.  Amaurys Minier got the 7th highest bonus in 2012, Diaz got top 10 money in 2013. Javier got the 3rd highest in 2015. Giving 20 guys 250k-500k might get us something from 2016.  Thorpe, Jorge, Wells, Romero all fell in that price range.

[bird]

 

 


Yes, Birdwatcher, it appears the Texas Rangers are linked to several Top 30 IFA's.

 

Yes, caninati04, and the Twins are linked to several Top 30 IFA's as well. They just use their OWN Top 30 list, not BA's.

Thorpe was on their Top 30, but not BA's for example. The Ranger's preferences aren't relevant to the point, which is that any notion that the organization has a "strategy" of forgoing quality in favor of quantity is probably erroneous. And using a mention of the team being linked to BA's Top 30 tells us very little.

 

Thorpe would be defined as "quantity", not "quality" by some simply because BA didn't list him. And yet, Thor[e received the highest bonus ever given to an Aussie at the time, a half mil. Again, he's one example of a high-quality prospect that BA missed but the Twins found.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Yes, caninati04, and the Twins are linked to several Top 30 IFA's as well. They just use their OWN Top 30 list, not BA's.

Thorpe was on their Top 30, but not BA's for example. The Ranger's preferences aren't relevant to the point, which is that any notion that the organization has a "strategy" of forgoing quality in favor of quantity is probably erroneous. And using a mention of the team being linked to BA's Top 30 tells us very little.

 

Thorpe would be defined as "quantity", not "quality" by some simply because BA didn't list him. And yet, Thor[e received the highest bonus ever given to an Aussie at the time, a half mil. Again, he's one example of a high-quality prospect that BA missed but the Twins found.

What?  BA listed him, identified him, and even labeled Lewis the best Aussie to come out of there in a long time.  

 

BTW in the international scouting world, anytime you have to pay a 16yo Dominican/Venezuelan/etc to sign for 150K or over is considered a "quality" prospect not just roster fill because you had to outbid other organizations.  

 

2012's write up on Lewis Thorpe:

 

 

 

The Twins are among the more active teams in the Pacific Rim, where they signed two of the region’s top prospects last year. Their most notable signing from that part of the world was Lewis Thorpe (video), an Australian lefthander who signed for $500,000 shortly after July 2. Thorpe’s bonus was the biggest of the year for an Australian player and some scouts think he’s the best prospect to come out of Australia in years.

 

Thorpe pitched at the 16U World Championships in Mexico in 2011 and in Major League Baseball’s Australian academy, where he posted a 2.70 ERA with 30 strikeouts (second most in the academy) and 16 walks in 23 1/3 innings last year. At Australia’s 18U National Championships last month, Thorpe struck out a tournament-best 20 batters in nine scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. Thorpe even made one start for the Melbourne Aces in the Australian Baseball League, a circuit filled with professional players several years older than him, and carried a one-hitter into the sixth inning, then left after giving up a run with five strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings.

 

He has long arms and legs and might not be done growing. Some teams before July 2 saw Thorpe throwing 86-88 mph and touching 91, but most recently he’s been 88-92 mph and his fastball is tough to pick up out of his hand. His changeup has good sink and fade and could be an above-average pitch. He’s also shown feel to spin a curveball and worked on the pitch over the winter with Travis Blackley to do a better job of getting it out front. Thorpe also learned a cutter from former major league reliever Graeme Lloyd at the Australian academy last summer. His delivery is good for his age, though he did walk a lot of batters in Australia so he’ll need to become more efficient with his pitches. He’ll report to extended spring training in April.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure I understand the debate.  You are talking about 16 year old kids.  There's far more risk there than the 18 year olds we are drafting next week.  I think there's good reason to go for both quantity and quality. I have zero problems with them zeroing in one or two top quality kids that they are very convinced of and then spreading the rest out for lower signings... zero.  It works.

 

Side note, but I think we tend to forget that there are also only a limited number of positions due to a limited number of teams. That tends to limit things to some extent.

[gunnarthor]

I think we're all just arguing semantics. In my view, yours may differ, a "quality" signing period is where the Twins put a lot of money into one high end player - Minier, Javier, Diaz, Sano. A quantity period is where they spread their pool around to get a number of players for less than a million.  See 2016, 2014.