Berardino: Stubbs, Grossman meet again...

[Seth Stohs]

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/27/drew-stubbs-robbie-grossman-meet-again-as-minnesota-twins-teammates/

 

Ten years ago, Drew Stubbs was starring at the University of Texas. Robbie Grossman was a high school student, contemplating his future. There was a meeting set up between the two, and Stubbs helped Grossman on some hitting and defense things. 

 

 

 

“I showed him some drills that I had learned in college,” Stubbs said. “I just tried to give him some pointers on some things that I had learned that could help him out approaching the draft.”

Grossman, then 17, remembers the session vividly.

“I looked up to Drew. I was a big fan of Drew Stubbs. I wanted to be like him,” Grossman said. “That he actually came down and spent that one afternoon with me, working on hitting and fielding some fly balls, that was pretty special.

“I remember telling my dad, ‘I got to work out with Drew Stubbs,’ “Grossman said. “It was a big deal in our house. I was fired up as a kid, and I’m still fired up to work with him.”

 

Stubbs went on to be the #8 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Grossman signed after being drafted in high school.

 

Now the two are on the same roster, both trying to work for an outfield role with the Twins. It may even be a one or the other situation. 

 

 

[GP830]

Cute.

[Linus]

Well based on Stubbs supposed outfield play on Saturday we now might know why Grossman is so underwhelming in the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well based on Stubbs supposed outfield play on Saturday we now might know why Grossman is so underwhelming in the field.

Grossman's advanced metrics are bizarre. Before 2016, he wasn't a liability in the outfield. In 2016, he was absolutely atrocious in the outfield.

 

He was roughly neutral as a corner outfielder pre-2016. Hell, he logged 230 innings in center in 2013 and posted similarly bad numbers to his 2016 corner outfield metrics. That's just... weird. Lots of SSS with Grossman.

 

Which is the real Robbie Grossman? Dunno, which is part of the reason why I want to see him get another chance with the Twins. If he can post an .800-ish OPS against LHP and play "meh, whatever" defense at the corners, he's almost a perfect fit for this roster, which is full of good defensive outfielders who can't hit lefties for ****.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Grossman's advanced metrics are bizarre. Before 2016, he wasn't a liability in the outfield. In 2016, he was absolutely atrocious in the outfield.

 

He was roughly neutral as a corner outfielder pre-2016. Hell, he logged 230 innings in center in 2013 and posted similarly bad numbers to his 2016 corner outfield metrics. That's just... weird. Lots of SSS with Grossman.

 

Which is the real Robbie Grossman? Dunno, which is part of the reason why I want to see him get another chance with the Twins. If he can post an .800-ish OPS against LHP and play "meh, whatever" defense at the corners, he's almost a perfect fit for this roster, which is full of good defensive outfielders who can't hit lefties for ****.

 

I'd kind of like to see Kepler, who is 23, get some time against lefties before we make that final decision....but maybe that's just me being glass half full guy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd kind of like to see Kepler, who is 23, get some time against lefties before we make that final decision....but maybe that's just me being glass half full guy.

Same here but Rosario is also awful against lefties. You can rotate Grossman into the lineup without taking much playing time from either starter.

 

Grossman should start every game against a lefty. Every one. Grossman was 400 (!) OPS points better against LHP than Rosario and Kepler last season. I don't expect him to repeat that number but even 200 points is a HUGE swing.

[Mr. Brooks]

Same here but Rosario is also awful against lefties. You can rotate Grossman into the lineup without taking much playing time from either starter.

 

Grossman should start every game against a lefty. Every one. Grossman was 400 (!) OPS points better against LHP than Rosario and Kepler last season. I don't expect him to repeat that number but even 200 points is a HUGE swing.

Rosario's career splits are nearly identical.

 

.264/.286/.452 vs. RH

.279/.308/.416 vs. LH

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario's career splits are nearly identical.

.264/.286/.452 vs. RH
.279/.308/.416 vs. LH

Caused by his (likely) aberrant 2015 slash line where he posted an OPS against lefties that was .085 higher than his OPS against righties.

 

Lefty hitters who hit lefty pitching better than right-handed pitching are basically unicorns. Lefty hitters who can even come close to hitting lefties as well as righties are extremely rare.

 

Rosario's 2016 OPS was 150 points lower against lefties than righties. That's far more likely to continue than not. Much better left-handed hitters than Rosario have posted more extreme splits than that (such as Justin Morneau's career 200 point lefty/righty split).

[Mr. Brooks]

Caused by his (likely) aberrant 2015 slash line where he posted an OPS against lefties that was .085 higher than his OPS against righties.

 

Lefty hitters who hit lefty pitching better than right-handed pitching are basically unicorns. Lefty hitters who can even come close to hitting lefties as well as righties are extremely rare.

 

Rosario's 2016 OPS was 150 points lower against lefties than righties. That's far more likely to continue than not. Much better left-handed hitters than Rosario have posted more extreme splits than that (such as Justin Morneau's career 200 point lefty/righty split).

That might all turn out to be true, but for now he's not horrible against lefties.

 

What do his milb splits look like?

[Linus]

Rosario and Kepler need to play. Nobody knows what their long term potential or splits will be until they play-alot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That might all turn out to be true, but for now he's not horrible against lefties.

What do his milb splits look like?

It varied by year and I didn't see a place to view career MiLB splits. It ranged from .025 OPS to .200 OPS from the years I scanned.

 

I'd be surprised if Rosario hit within 100 OPS points in his lefty/righty splits when his MLB career is all said and done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario and Kepler need to play. Nobody knows what their long term potential or splits will be until they play-alot.

No, but given how the vast majority of lefty hitters are bad at hitting LHP, it doesn't take much to predict that Grossman is a good platoon candidate for Kepler/Rosario.

 

Everyone here realizes that one of the smoothest, most contact-heavy left-handed hitters of this generation, Joe Mauer, has a .150 OPS left/right split, right? This is kinda Baseball 101 stuff, guys.

 

Even Barry-freaking-Bonds had a .100 OPS left/right split for his career and pitchers literally cowered in fear when he came to the plate.

[mikelink45]

Until our new favorite minor leaguer advances Rosario and Kepler need to get almost all outfield and batting reps.  When K emerges he takes the weaker of the two.

[Linus]

No, but given how the vast majority of lefty hitters are bad at hitting LHP, it doesn't take much to predict that Grossman is a good platoon candidate for Kepler/Rosario.

 

Everyone here realizes that one of the smoothest, most contact-heavy left-handed hitters of this generation, Joe Mauer, has a .150 OPS left/right split, right? This is kinda Baseball 101 stuff, guys.

 

Even Barry-freaking-Bonds had a .100 OPS left/right split for his career and pitchers literally cowered in fear when he came to the plate.

Understood but nobody should assume anything about young prospects/players until actually proven.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Understood but nobody should assume anything about young prospects/players until actually proven.

But I'm not really assuming anything, I'm simply playing historical odds to maximize roster efficacy, which is what the Twins should be doing, too. Robbie Grossman is one guy while Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler consume two lineup spots.

 

Even if you're starting Grossman against every lefty starter the Twins face - which is what the Twins should do out of the gate - that means either Rosario or Kepler is still in the field against that same lefty.

 

Which means you'll get to see both of those guys take plenty of hacks against LHP even if Grossman is also in the field.

[Linus]

But I'm not really assuming anything, I'm simply playing historical odds to maximize roster efficacy, which is what the Twins should be doing, too. Robbie Grossman is one guy while Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler consume two lineup spots.

 

Even if you're starting Grossman against every lefty starter the Twins face - which is what the Twins should do out of the gate - that means either Rosario or Kepler is still in the field against that same lefty.

 

Which means you'll get to see both of those guys take plenty of hacks against LHP even if Grossman is also in the field.

Agree to disagree. I'm not letting go Grossman take any at bats away from those two.