Miller: Falvey, Levine Speak to Season-Ticket Holders

[Seth Stohs]

Last night, the Twins hosted a call-in show for Twins Season-Ticket Holders. Thad Levine and Derek Falvey answered fan questions for an hour from the fans. 

 

Phil Miller wrote up an article on some of the answers, including thoughts on:

 

• Miguel Sano and the outfield,
• Phil Hughes,
• How to acquire pitching
• Will Brian Dozier be traded

and much more. I tweeted through some of the events, if you're interested in some of those tweets, follow me. 

[Willihammer]

 

“We view Miguel as having a chance to be an above-average third base defensively who’s going to be a force offensively. … We feel most logically, [third base is] where his home is going to be,” Levine said.

“That being said, the more versatile a player is defensively, the more valuable he will be. … So the extent to which Miguel can still play the corner outfield spots only makes him that much more valuable and more of an asset.”

What possible analytics could suggest Sano has a chance to be above average at any position in the field?

 

If this is the final decision then it is 100% about P&L and 0% about W&L.

[Sarah]

I listened to this and thought the article is a good recap. My first reaction was well, these guys are different. And I mean that in a good way, not in a passive aggressive Minnesota way.  Well spoken but kind of formal, I don't think they mentioned a player by name unless they were asked about them (but I suppose that could be because they don't really know them yet). They struck me as from the Theo Epstein school - the main thing the article mentioned about making the tough decisions on players came from someone who said it's disappointing when you get attached to a player and then they get traded away or not re-signed. But it reminded me of when he was with the Red Sox and traded away Nomar Garciaparra, and then the Red Sox went on to win the World Series so he was doing what he thought he had to do to improve the team.

 

Another thing I appreciated about them is that even though the Twins were a wreck last season they didn't throw anyone under the bus - they talked about how they were going to reserve judgment until they had a chance to evaluate more and give people the resources they need to succeed and just how hard player development is in baseball. I thought those were valid points. But I may be biased on this point because I used to work with someone who told everyone on her second day how everything we were doing was wrong - that went over really well as you can probably imagine. But I digress... 

 

The one thing I thought was confusing was sometimes I couldn't tell who was speaking. But overall I enjoyed their perspective and am interested in seeing what they can do. As they say, hope springs eternal. Heck, I'm still getting used to saying World Champion Chicago Cubs so who knows what can happen! 

[alarp33]

 

What possible analytics could suggest Sano has a chance to be above average at any position in the field?

 

If this is the final decision then it is 100% about P&L and 0% about W&L.

 

His UZR is above average at 3rd

[Willihammer]

 

His UZR is above average at 3rd

Don't bait.

[USAFChief]

 

His UZR is above average at 3rd

It's Minnesota.  All the children are above average.

[alarp33]

 

Don't bait.

 

Not baiting.  Responding to the question.  His UZR was significantly better than Trevor Plouffe's last year at 3rd.  

 

I also think its reasonable to suggest with an actual offseason to prepare at 3rd base, and another year removed from TJ, he'll be fine

[Willihammer]

 

Not baiting.  Responding to the question.  His UZR was significantly better than Trevor Plouffe's last year at 3rd.  

 

I also think its reasonable to suggest with an actual offseason to prepare at 3rd base, and another year removed from TJ, he'll be fine

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

 

See "How to Use UZR," the part about sample sizes.

[alarp33]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

 

See "How to Use UZR," the part about sample sizes.

 

I know how sample sizes work.  You asked which metric, I responded

[TheLeviathan]

What!  A front office that will *gasp* call other teams?!?!?

 

Are we allowed to do that?  Would anyone even recognize our number if we try?

[Kwak]

What would be neat is to compare this season's call to season ticket holders to last year's call--say posting them side-by-side.

[Major League Ready]

 

What possible analytics could suggest Sano has a chance to be above average at any position in the field?

 

If this is the final decision then it is 100% about P&L and 0% about W&L.

For starters, metrics measure the past.  Are you suggesting there are not examples of #B that got significantly better defensively?  Look no further than Plouffe and Koske and of course there are numerous other examples in MLB history.

 

Metrics also should not be the sole determinant of if Sano should be given an extended opportunity at 3B.  Those stats don’t tell us what a more experience and 25 or 30lbs lighter version of Sano could do.  Asking the player to get in shape to play his position seems like a better idea than giving up on someone with Sano’s athleticism, especially while he is still in his early 20s. 

 

Is there a stat that factors in what is probably the best arm of any the 3B in the league?

 

You have to explain how playing Sano at 3B is about “the P&L and not W&L.  There is not a GM in the league that would relegate Sano to DH at this point, even the winning clubs.  Next year is the perfect time to invest in our young players so it makes even less sense to give up on him in the field.

[twinsnorth49]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

 

See "How to Use UZR," the part about sample sizes.

Don't sample sizes work both ways though?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I'm skeptical of any stat that takes 3 years to be accurate. If it varies that much, it's missing something.

 

Setting that aside, I'm quite encouraged that Falvey/Levine are telling people to not get attached to players. Tells me that Dozier and Santana are firmly on the block for the right offers.

[TheLeviathan]

This thread is going to get derailed. Doubly so when we think UZR is anything like ERA or BA.

 

UZR is relatively better than fielding percentage like 106 degrees is relatively cooler than 107 degrees.

 

On the topic, these guys are saying and doing all the right things.

[Kwak]

 

Personally, I'm skeptical of any stat that takes 3 years to be accurate. If it varies that much, it's missing something.

 

Setting that aside, I'm quite encouraged that Falvey/Levine are telling people to not get attached to players. Tells me that Dozier and Santana are firmly on the block for the right offers.

...and that Mauer will be gone when his contract is fulfilled?