Loosey's Offseason Blue Print

[Loosey]

Some wishful thinking, but that's half the fun of this.  

 

Here it goes.  Get your criticism hats ready.  Enjoy!

 

Arbitration Eligible: Total Tendered Salary - $7.5m

1) Trevor Plouffe - Non-Tendered
2) Hector Santiago - Non-Tendered
3) Eduardo Escobar, 3.5 million
4) Kyle Gibson, 2.5 million
5) Brandon Kintzler, Non-Tendered
6) Ryan Pressly, 1.5 million

 

Currently Under MLB Contract: Total Salary - $72.95m

1B Joe Mauer $23m
2B Jorge Polanco $500k
2B Brian Dozier $6m
DH Miguel Sano $500k
OF Eddie Rosario $500k
OF Byron Buxton $500k
OF Max Kepler $500k
C JR Murphy $500k
1B/DH Kennys Vargas $500k
1B/DH Byung Ho Park $2.8m
C Juan Centeno $500k
OF Robbie Grossman $500k
OF Danny Santana $500k
SP Ervin Santana $13.5m
SP Trevor May $500k
SP Jose Berrios $500k
SP Phil Hughes $13.2m
RP JT Chargois $500k
RP Taylor Rogers $500k
RP Tyler Duffey $500k
RP Michael Tonkin $500k
RP Glen Perkins 6.5m

 

Total Arbitration + Current Contracts = $80.45M

 

DFA Candidates:
Juan Centeno $500k
Danny Santana $500k

 

Total Payroll before Free Agency and Trades - $79.45

 

The Plan

 

Trades:

#1) Brian Dozier: I see three destinations that have a possible need for second baseman and have what the Twins are looking for - Young Starting pitching.  I Offer Dozier, Kohl Stewart and Stuart Turner to the Dodgers for Julio Urias.  The Dodgers probably balk at that, I would slow play them and walk away for now and tell them the offers stands and move onto Pittsburgh and offer a very similar deal to Pittsburgh for Jameson Taillon.  Except this offer is only Dozier and Stewart.  I leave Turner out of this deal.  I let the Pirates know the Dodgers are in on Dozier as well for one of their young starting pitchers and talks are fluid.  My next offer is out to the Mets who I think are the least likely to be a partner with.  If they want a 2nd baseman they can re-sign Walker to big bucks, but don't have to give up talent to do so.  But I definitely ask about Steven Matz.  The Mets say they are in talks with Walker right now and can't make a deal for Dozier, then the phone rings.  It's Pittsburgh, they are want Dozier.  But they want a higher ceiling arm that Stewart and another prospect.  Twins call the Dodgers one more time and ask about Urias and learn he is untouchable.  The Dodgers offer De Leon but want Dozier and Francisco Romero - The Twins say no thanks. The Twins call the Pirates back and offer Dozier, Felix Jorge and no more prospects. The Pirates accept.  Deal #1 is Dozier and Jorge for Jameson Taillon.

 

#2) Ervin Santana: In a pitching depleted free agent market Santana would be near the top of the list of Free Agents gets.  But he is not a free agent and the Twins control his destiny for the most part.  2016 was one of Santana’s best all-around seasons and there should be interest in him.  I would be looking for a very nice catcher. The Twins receive reasonable offers but nothing that Falvey and Levine think is worth giving up Santana for.  Deal #2 does not happen during the off-season.

 

Free Agents:
#1) The Twins get aggressive here.  After sitting on open market without many offers due to concerns about his knee, the Twins come in and offer Wilson Ramos a 4 year contract worth $58m ($14.5 AAV) with a $7.25M buyout option in year 4.  Just like that the Twins have solved their need at catcher. FA #1 Wilson Ramos (4 years $58m)

 

#2) On a one year incentive laden deal the Twins Sign Brett Anderson to a 1 year $4.5m deal with and innings pitched escalator.  This is the type of deal that could net an ok return at the deadline or just become a $4.5m risk gone sour.  FA #2 Brett Anderson (1 year $4.5m)

 

#3) Bolstering their bullpen the Twins go out and sign Neftali Feliz.  He’s young enough that he could be around when the team turns itself around, also he is young enough that if the right deal comes along he could be flipped for assets.  The Twins sign Feliz for 3 year $17M ($5.67m AAV).  FA #3 Neftali Feliz (3 years $17m)

 

#4) After cutting ties with Danny Santanta the Twins sign a minor league free agent to be their utility IF.  At the league minimum $500k, this player will be filler material until someone else can step in from the minor league system (VIELMA) or be acquired. FA #4 Minor League FA (1 Year $500k)

 

Under Contract After Free Agency and Trades:  Payroll (including 60 day DL) - $99.17m

1B Joe Mauer $23m
2B Jorge Polanco $500k
SS Eduardo Escobar $3.5m
3B/DH Miguel Sano $500k
OF Eddie Rosario $500k
OF Byron Buxton $500k
OF Max Kepler $500k
OF Robbie Grossman $500k
C Wilson Ramos $14.5
C JR Murphy $500k
1B/DH Kennys Vargas $500k
Util IF Minor League FA $500k
1B/DH Byung Ho Park $2.8m – Starts Season in AAA
SP Ervin Santana $13.5m
SP Trevor May $500k – Gets another shot at Starting
SP Kyle Gibson $2.5m
SP Jameson Taillon $500k
SP Brett Anderson $4.5m
RP Jose Berrios $500k - Starts in Bullpen until rotation shakes itself out
RP Phil Hughes $13.2m – Starts the Season in Bullpen to build himself back up
RP Ryan Pressly $1.5m
RP JT Chargois $500k
RP Taylor Rogers $500k
RP Tyler Duffey $500k
RP Michael Tonkin $500k
RP Glen Perkins 6.5m – Starts Season on 60 Day DL
RP Neftali Feliz $5.67

 

So after cutting ties with some players who have been around here either through DFA, Trade or not given arbitration the team gives themselves some flexibility to sign trade for pieces to build this team up.  Some parts will be shorter term, while others could be parts of the future team that finally becomes competitive.
After all of the moves the 2017 MLB payroll still sits at just under $100M.

[Mike Sixel]

I think the LAD do DeLeon for Dozier straight up, maybe even offer more. He's a 3ish....maybe. And unproven. 

 

If Jorge is a high ceiling AA guy, why am I trading him? 

 

Also, any plan that has Grossman on the roster is gross, man. I'd rather have Castro or a AAA FA than Ramos next year, I doubt Wilson plays much catcher next year, maybe ever.

[Loosey]

 

I think the LAD do DeLeon for Dozier straight up, maybe even offer more. He's a 3ish....maybe. And unproven. 

 

If Jorge is a high ceiling AA guy, why am I trading him? 

 

Also, any plan that has Grossman on the roster is gross, man. I'd rather have Castro or a AAA FA than Ramos next year, I doubt Wilson plays much catcher next year, maybe ever.

Yeah, the Robbie Grossman add was me getting lazy and needing a 4th outfielder.  I originally had him being released.  But then I didn't feel like going out and and researching and looking for a 4th outfielder that would fit this team's strategy, just like Terry Ryan!

[Brandon Warne]

It's a fine blueprint, but I think Anderson signs for twice that much money.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's a fine blueprint, but I think Anderson signs for twice that much money.

 

With a little extra on it.  And probalby not for only one year either.

[DocBauer]

Not a bad plan, and thank you for sharing it with us.

 

I just can't get behind Ramos due to cost and the injury factor. I'm still on Castro if possible, but think a cheaper 1 year deal on a veteran, preferably one who hits LH to team with Murphy/Garver makes more sense. And the money savings helps with that solid 4th OF, and possibly a better SS/utility candidate.

 

I keep reading opinions on Anderson and maybe catching lightning in a bottle. And it could happen. If it did, it would be nice if the Twins were the team who did so. But he's seemingly always hurt, and I think I'd rather just trust in Berrios.

 

Perez was part of my plan and I like that move. Young enough to keep, valuable enough to also flip.