Statistical analysis on early trades - does it exist?

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing that has perplexed me for quite some time is the rush to trade on July 31st. Yes, I know teams are gauging what they want, leveraging other teams against each other to vie for the best deal but what is lost in doing so? What are the ramifications of waiting 10, 20, 30 games to pick up a player?

 

Say you're the Mets. You're in contention but have a few holes that need patching. It's July 15th with, say, 14 games left until the deadline. You go out and snatch up a decent starting pitcher and a competent hitter.

 

Hypothetically speaking, those two players are worth one win over the next 14 days. That's one win you just banked. That win could be the difference between not making the playoffs versus taking the second Wild Card. That win could be the difference between winning the division versus playing in the Wild Card game. That win could be the difference between winning the division and winning home field throughout the postseason.

 

That win is worth a lot to a contending team.

 

Has anyone ever done a statistical breakdown based on date of player acquisition? It's something I'd love to read if it exists.

[wsnydes]

I've always wondered that too.  I would think teams in an extremely tight division around the All-Star break would be much more apt to make deals earlier for the very reasons you mentioned.  

 

I would think the opposite would be true of a team like the Twins that have a few guys in AAA that are MLB ready but don't have a spot on the 25 man roster.  I know service time plays into that a bit, but if a bottom feeding team can unload a valuable veteran earlier giving them extra time to evaluate their in-house prospects, why would this not be attractive to them?

 

I would also be interested in seeing such a breakdown if it exists.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are two sides to every trade too, maybe it is the seller that prefer to wait and put the buyers up against a deadline for a better return?

[jorgenswest]

Maybe it is better not to wait and blow a team say with an offer. How much is three Pomeranz starts worth? That represents about 10% of his full season.

[old nurse]

Cespedes produced 2.3 bwar for the Mets Uribe and Johnson provided 1.1 bwar   Clippard gave them 0.2.  Oflarety cost them 0.7.  Eric Young gained them 0.1 Reed got them 0.4.    They signed Stauffer for a loss of 0.2    Net gain 3.1   Real gain, Cespedes  and Clippard in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. You make the trades when you think your club will be in the playoffs.  That does not show up in places I know to look.

[old nurse]

 

 

Maybe it is better not to wait and blow a team say with an offer. How much is three Pomeranz starts worth? That represents about 10% of his full season.

If Pomeranz has truly bloomed, for 2.5 years maybe Boston got him cheaply. Unless if Espinoza turns into Pedro Martinez Espinoza.

[old nurse]

Drew Buters - 0.7 Kratz, - 0.1 Zobrist 1.2  Joba, - 0.1,  Gomes, - 0.4,  Cueto 0.2    I am not sure if the Royals benefited or not

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There are two sides to every trade too, maybe it is the seller that prefer to wait and put the buyers up against a deadline for a better return?

Yeah, I didn't state that part clearly but I meant to imply that both sides have their reasons to hold out and try to force a better offer.