Berrios and Stewart were dealing yesterday

[twinssouth]

I did a double take when looking at the RedWings box score. Berrios threw a complete game yesterday and what's amazing, he did it on 87 pitches. Is that correct? If so, that's amazing. He only faced 30 batters, 10 ground outs/3 fly outs, 7 SO's, 2 earned runs. Could somebody tell me why he's in Rochester, perhaps I missed an obvious explanation.

 

 

 

Then, not to be outdone, Stewart throws a 7 inning shut out, 7 SO's. He lowered his era to 3.58. I think the kid is figuring it out. Then, my sleeper prospect, Melotakis threw 1 inning shut out ball and Reed ( who I hope is figuring it out because his pitches have a lot of movement) strikes out the side and preserves the shut out.

 

 

 

Looks like a great day in Twins prospect land.

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, Berrios and Stewart both dealing was really great to see, but a little worried why Tyler Jay left after the fourth inning in the midst of a shutout. Anyone know why he was pulled?

[mikelink45]

Lets hope the real All Star news will be trading Santana and Nolasco and bringing up our young arms.  It is time to move on and there are some teams with real pitching needs - like the Dodgers who could use one of these national league arms (maybe two).

[twinssouth]

Yeah, Berrios and Stewart both dealing was really great to see, but a little worried why Tyler Jay left after the fourth inning in the midst of a shutout. Anyone know why he was pulled?

 

 

 

I noticed that too. It was also 8 or so days between starts. May be dealing with some physical issues.

[TKGuy]

The Dodgers loved Nolasco last time he was there, a guy can hope

[FargoFanMan]

What do we think the timeline on Stewart is? Haven't heard many in depth reports on how he's been progressing. Is he still in line to be a #1 type or is he starting to trend down a little. We always hear numbers from everybody but what's the scouting report? Numbers only tell you so much. Anyone seen him pitch lately?

[AZTwin]

 

The Dodgers loved Nolasco last time he was there, a guy can hope

 

I think the White Sox liked Nolasco the last time they saw him too, but I doubt they'd trade for him.

[TRex]

 

Yeah, Berrios and Stewart both dealing was really great to see, but a little worried why Tyler Jay left after the fourth inning in the midst of a shutout. Anyone know why he was pulled?

Game notes indicate that the FM game had a 48 minute rain delay. I don't know if it was at the end of the 4th inning, but it seems like a good possibility.

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Game notes indicate that the FM game had a 48 minute rain delay. I don't know if it was at the end of the 4th inning, but it seems like a good possibility.

Thanks, bet you are right.

[youngpadawan]

I believe the Tyler Jay stuff is due to innings limit. He was a college reliever and has been logging quite a few quality starts this year in his first full season as a starter. They skipped his last start and may start capping his workload a lot earlier in his starts moving forward.

 

Stewart should pitch the first half of next season in AA, at least. They have been pretty aggressive moving him even though his stuff hasn't been developing as fast as he is moving. He is putting up nice numbers which is encouraging. I think he will continue to work towards Ace status as he matures, but they just need to keep him where he's at for a while so he can get the swings and misses he should be generating.

[FargoFanMan]

I believe the Tyler Jay stuff is due to innings limit. He was a college reliever and has been logging quite a few quality starts this year in his first full season as a starter. They skipped his last start and may start capping his workload a lot earlier in his starts moving forward.

Stewart should pitch the first half of next season in AA, at least. They have been pretty aggressive moving him even though his stuff hasn't been developing as fast as he is moving. He is putting up nice numbers which is encouraging. I think he will continue to work towards Ace status as he matures, but they just need to keep him where he's at for a while so he can get the swings and misses he should be generating.

Sounds promising! Personally I really liked this pick when they made it. Finally, a high upside high school pitcher! Even if he doesn't develop into an ace this is how you find them. Glad the twins are finally acknowledging this after years of unspectacular college guys that developed into nothing on the mlb hill.

[bird]

 

Sounds promising! Personally I really liked this pick when they made it. Finally, a high upside high school pitcher! Even if he doesn't develop into an ace this is how you find them. Glad the twins are finally acknowledging this after years of unspectacular college guys that developed into nothing on the mlb hill.

 

The pundits liked Stewart as the pick in this slot too, and the scouts still like him it seems. It sure helps when your HS pitcher is one of the 10 best prospects in the entire draft. Although, I noticed that Gonsalves, a lowly 4th rounder, outdueled Carson Fulmer in AA today. Fulmer is the White Sox' #1 prospect, the 8th overall selection a year ago. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Kohl Stewart is a perfect example of why you don't write off a talented prospect because he didn't develop at the rate of a Correa, Buxton, Schwarber, Strasburg, etc.

 

Stewart is still only 21 years old.

 

Sure, there are still question marks and reasons to be concerned (the fact that his K rate spiked and then settled again is mildly concerning) but kids develop at different paces.

 

As I said when people started getting down on him in 2014, the kid could spend five more years in the minors and still debut as a 24 year old.

[Mike Sixel]

Right......for me this year was about taking a real step, and going to AA and being ok or better is a great step for a 21 year old, imo.

 

Not sure I want him there 3 more years......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right......for me this year was about taking a real step, and going to AA and being ok or better is a great step for a 21 year old, imo.

 

Not sure I want him there 3 more years......

I'd also be disappointed if he spent three more seasons in the minors but I didn't expect him to jump to AA and have immediate success so the timeline has escalated a bit.

 

I suspect Stewart will be a "slow and steady" prospect, much like Gordon. Roughly one a level a year and no skipping AAA.

 

But if Stewart keeps it up, he could open 2017 in Rochester and he's beating on the door at that point.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Kohl Stewart is a perfect example of why you don't write off a talented prospect because he didn't develop at the rate of a Correa, Buxton, Schwarber, Strasburg, etc.

 

Stewart is still only 21 years old.

 

Sure, there are still question marks and reasons to be concerned (the fact that his K rate spiked and then settled again is mildly concerning) but kids develop at different paces.

 

As I said when people started getting down on him in 2014, the kid could spend five more years in the minors and still debut as a 24 year old.

 

The problem is that you can't take too much improvement for granted. Just because a pitcher is young doesn't automatically mean a ton of development will take place. Considering where Stewart was drafted, it was reasonable to hope he would get better results. Clubs hope to get a great player at #4, even though historically that's a minority outcome. 

 

Obviously, it's better to be Gavin Floyd (2001) than Jason Grilli (1997), and better Grilli than Jeff Austin (1998). That's something like the range where Stewart fits in as a prospect, which is OK, but disappointing when you consider Kerry Wood (1995), Alex Fernandez (1990), or Kevin Brown (1986).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The problem is that you can't take too much improvement for granted. Just because a pitcher is young doesn't automatically mean a ton of development will take place. Considering where Stewart was drafted, it was reasonable to hope he would get better results. Clubs hope to get a great player at #4, even though historically that's a minority outcome. 

 

Obviously, it's better to be Gavin Floyd (2001) than Jason Grilli (1997), and better Grilli than Jeff Austin (1998). That's something like the range where Stewart fits in as a prospect, which is OK, but disappointing when you consider Kerry Wood (1995), Alex Fernandez (1990), or Kevin Brown (1986).

I'm not dismissing Stewart's troubles... They were concerning.

 

My point is more "don't rush to judgment" than "ignore the data". There weren't isolated cases of posters completely dismissing Stewart after his early struggles, there were literally dozens of posters doing it. I remember at least 4-5 posters suggesting the Twins trade Stewart "so they can get something for him while he has value".

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm not dismissing Stewart's troubles... They were concerning.

 

My point is more "don't rush to judgment" than "ignore the data". There weren't isolated cases of posters completely dismissing Stewart after his early struggles, there were literally dozens of posters doing it. I remember at least 4-5 posters suggesting the Twins trade Stewart "so they can get something for him while he has value".

 

I don't recall the trade mongering, but that clearly was not a reasonable suggestion. So far as re-assessing his likely ceiling, I think that was basically correct - not that he couldn't pitch in the Majors, but that he's not an ace. Fans are understandably disappointed when a #4 overall pick quickly turns into a guy who needs 5-6 years to maybe be a #3-4 starter.

[FargoFanMan]

Who knows where he ends up. I believe this kid is still learning to pitch. Remember he seemed to be more focused on football and the reason he was drafted where he was is that he has that freakish ability of just having electric stuff. Here we are a few years later. He still has that same stuff only he's facing the better competition. So what if he spends a little more time developing. He may not be knocking on the mlb door quite yet but I think he's up next year sometime. This guy seems to be a late bloomer but he has the fire. He's got the attitude. I think he'll be fine. Maybe not a #1 guy but a guy you don't think twice about giving the ball to game 7 of the World Series. In that situation it's not K/9 or WHIP or anything like that. It's about having that fire in his belly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't recall the trade mongering, but that clearly was not a reasonable suggestion. So far as re-assessing his likely ceiling, I think that was basically correct - not that he couldn't pitch in the Majors, but that he's not an ace. Fans are understandably disappointed when a #4 overall pick quickly turns into a guy who needs 5-6 years to maybe be a #3-4 starter.

1. It's likely Stewart ends up as a #3-4-ish guy but the entire point of my post is that given his weird trajectory, putting labels on the kid is foolish even in 2016, much less 2014.

 

2. If fans are disappointed that a #4 pick isn't in the majors as a 21 year old, fans need to adjust their expectations. That's not how baseball works most of the time. Appreciate when things go so well that timelines are accelerated, don't expect that to be the norm.