2016 Twins record in historical context

[Otto von Ballpark]

Since our last inquiry when the Twins started 0-9, I thought it might be interesting to take a look again at the 2016 Twins record and history.  (Note that for this exercise, I have prorated all records to the modern season length of 162 games for easy comparison.)

 

8 wins or fewer in first 33 games

The Twins currently sit at 8-25.  This is pretty rare.  Since the "proper" major leagues began in 1901, only 27 teams have started their season with 8 wins or fewer in 33 games (13 with exactly 8 like the Twins).  Out of 2775 total team seasons, that's just under 1%.  Rather interesting that the Twins and Braves have both done so in 2016 -- that has only happened twice before (1904 and 1981).

 

None of these teams finished at .500 or better.  The 1995 Marlins had the best finish of the bunch, finishing at 76 wins.  1907 Brooklyn (71) was the only other team in this group to finish above 65 wins (remember, prorated to a 162 game season).  The Twins had never previously started 8-25 or worse, but the 1904 Washington Senators did (finishing at 40 wins).

 

9 wins

Another 42 teams won 9 of their first 33, and two finished above .500: 1965 Pittsburgh (90) and 1925 Detroit (85).  More recently, the 2006 Marlins (that franchise again!) started 9-24 but managed to get back to 78 wins at season's end.  2012 marks the Twins previous worst start in this group, with a 66 win finish.

 

10 wins

Another 54 won 10 of their first 33.  The legendary world champion 1914 Braves (100) top the finishers, followed by 3 more teams with 81 or 82 wins, none more recent than 1973.  The 1995 (63) and 1978 (73) Twins are included here.

 

11 wins

Another 82 won 11 of their first 33, only 5 finished at .500, and none of those since 1988.  The 1974 Pirates reached 88 wins and won their division.  The 1981 (61) and 1982 (60) Twins went back-to-back in this category.

 

So all told, 205 teams have won 11 or fewer of their first 33 games, and only 11 of those have rebounded to finish at .500 or better, none more recently than 1988, and only two have made the postseason (1914 and 1974).

 

(Things look a little better at 12 wins, with the 2005 Astros and 1989 Blue Jays making the playoffs with 89 wins each, and the 2015 Indians climbing back to 81 wins too.  Although the infamous 1962 Mets make their first appearance here too...)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also of note: the 2006 Twins were 14-19 at this point in the season, and finished with 96 wins.  If the 2016 Twins could manage the same record as that bunch over the season's last 129 games (including an 18-1 stretch), they would finish with 90 wins.

 

The 1991 Twins, despite a 2-9 start, were already back to 17-16 at this point in the season.  An equivalent finish in 2016 (including a 15 game winning streak) would put us at 87 wins.

[nicksaviking]

Nice research Spycake.

 

I mean, it's not really "nice" considering the context, but great effort digging up those numbers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Only 1 team has had a worse start than us in the wild card era, at 7-26:

2003 Tigers (finished with 43 wins)

 

8-25 starts in the wild card era (prior to 2016 Twins & Braves):

2005 Royals (53)

1998 Diamondbacks (expansion team, 65 wins)

1995 Marlins (prorated 76 wins)

 

9-24 starts in the wild card era:

2013 Astros (51)
2012 Twins (66)
2010 Orioles (66)
2007 Nationals (73)
2006 Pirates (67)
2006 Marlins (78)
2003 Indians (68)
2002 Devil Rays (55)
2002 Brewers (56)
1999 Marlins (64)
1994 A's (prorated 72 wins)

 

10-23 starts in the wild card era

2014 Astros (70)

2013 Marlins (62)
2007 Royals (69)
2006 Royals (62)
2005 Rockies (67)
2004 Devil Rays (70)
2004 Expos (67)
2001 Devil Rays (62)
2000 Tigers (79)
1999 Expos (68)
1998 Tigers (65)
1997 Cubs (68)
1996 Tigers (53)
1995 Twins (prorated 63 wins)
1994 Padres (prorated 65 wins)

 

11-22 starts in the wild card era:

2015 Phillies (63)
2014 Diamondbacks (64)
2013 Angels (78)
2012 Padres (76)
2011 White Sox (79)
2010 Royals (67)
2004 Royals (58)
2003 Padres (64)
2002 Blue Jays (78)
2002 Royals (62)
2002 Tigers (55)
2001 Royals (65)
2000 Brewers (73)
1998 Marlins (54)
1997 Phillies (68)
1997 Reds (76)
1994 Cubs (prorated 70 wins)

 

Of the 49 teams above (counting the 2016 Twins and Braves), 17 of them (35%) have been in the AL Central.  Next most is the NL East, with 11.

[ashbury]

Spycake, I'm curious, what tool did you use to locate these records?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I just scraped season schedules/results from the web into a database and queried it.

 

You could probably do something similar with a subscription to B-Ref's Play Index, but it's just more intuitive for me to build my own database queries.

[Thrylos]

 

Only 1 team has had a worse start than us in the wild card era, at 7-26:

2003 Tigers (finished with 43 wins)

 

8-25 starts in the wild card era (prior to 2016 Twins & Braves):

2005 Royals (53)

1998 Diamondbacks (expansion team, 65 wins)

1995 Marlins (prorated 76 wins)

 

 

Great work!  Something that needs to be added:

 

2003 Tigers:

That was a rebuilding year.  First full season for GM Dombrowski and first season for manager Trammel.

 

2005 Royals:

 

Tony Pena (mgr) was fired after that 8-25, the team was managed for 17 games by Bob Schafer before Buddy Bell was hired.

 

The GM Allard Baird was fired in the following May.

 

1998 Dbacks:   

 

Their first season ever in existence

 

1995 Marlins:

 

Their third season ever in existence.  Manager (Rene Lachemann) eventually fired half way into following season

 

 

2016 Twins:

 

????????

[Otto von Ballpark]

Using 1961 as the start of the "modern" era, 10 teams have opened 10-29 or worse in that time frame, including an expansion club.  Best finish was 65-97.  Average finish among this group was 57-105.

 

Beginning 10-29 or worse:
1994 SDP 65-97 (prorated)
1987 SDP 65-97
1998 ARI 65-97
2006 KCR 62-100
1981 CHC 60-102 (prorated)
1965 KCA 59-103
1988 BAL 54-107
1979 TOR 53-109
2013 HOU 51-111
2003 DET 43-119

 

13 more teams began 11-28, including a pair of expansion teams, and 6 managed to avoid 100 (prorated) losses, including the 1995 Twins!  (Just barely.)  Average finish 63-99.

 

Beginning 11-28:
2006 FLA 78-84
1994 OAK 72-90 (prorated)
1969 CAL 71-91
2004 TBD 70-92
1999 FLA 64-98
1995 MIN 63-99 (prorated
1969 CLE 62-100
2001 TBD 62 100
2013 MIA 162 100
1962 WSA 60 102
2005 KCR 156 106
1964 NYM 53 109
1969 MON 52 110

 

That completes the rarer poor starts.

 

35 more clubs started 12-27 since 1961, including the Twins of 1981, 1982, and 2011.  3 more expansion teams (including the 1962 Mets).  Best finish was 76-86.  Average finish was again 63-99.

 

Starting 13-26 (31 teams), we have our first .500 finish, the 1988 Padres at 83-78.  Average in this group climbs to 67-95.

 

Starting 14-25 (42 teams), we have our first playoff teams, the 1974 Pirates (88 wins) and 1989 Blue Jays (89 wins).  Only one other .500 finish, though.  Average finish 69-93.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wild card era, prior to the 2016 Twins, no team had started exactly 11-33, although two have started worse, the 2006 Royals (10-34) and the 2003 Tigers (9-35).  Hey, the Twins won the division both of those years!

 

The last team to start exactly 11-33 was the 1987 Padres, who "rebounded" to finish 65-97 -- the absolute best finish in MLB history for any club with 11 or fewer wins in their first 44 games (22 clubs in total, dating back to 1901).

[DaveW]

 

The last team to start exactly 11-33 was the 1987 Padres, who "rebounded" to finish 65-97 -- the absolute best finish in MLB history for any club with 11 or fewer wins in their first 44 games (22 clubs in total, dating back to 1901).

Wow. So your saying my over 78.5 wins bet in Vegas is pretty much worth the paper it was printed on at this stage?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wow. So your saying my over 78.5 wins bet in Vegas is pretty much worth the paper it was printed on at this stage?

Considering that 78 wins is the absolute best finish for any team in MLB history starting 14-30 or worse, and the Twins are currently 3 wins under that threshold -- yes.  (Although if you prorate to 162 games and ignore ties, teams in 1915 and 1927 could have finished with 79 wins, and a team in 1899 could have finished with 80 -- still all under .500 though.)

 

103 teams in MLB history (since 1901) have previously started 14-30 or worse.  Average finish in this group, prorated to 162 games, is 59-103.

 

46 teams meet that criteria in the expansion era (1961-present), average finish is slightly better (62-100).

 

24 teams in the wild card era (1994-present), average finish ticks up a little further (63-99).

 

Although again, the Twins are 3 wins under that threshold right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Figured it was time for an update, with the Twins sitting at 18-41, although sadly the outlook hasn't changed much.

 

No team in MLB history has finished with more than 67 wins after starting with 18 or fewer wins in their first 59 games (although 1994 Oakland was on pace for 72 when the strike happened).

 

The 2012 Padres started one win better at 19-40 and finished with 76 wins, which is actually the best finish ever for teams with 21 or fewer wins in their first 59.  No team in MLB history has finished .500 or better with fewer than 23 wins in their first 59 games.  Worst playoff team start at this point in the expansion era was 24-35 (2005 Astros).

 

Expansion era, 25 teams had between 17-19 wins in their first 59 games.  Average finish was 61-101.

 

Worst Twins start at this point was 1982, at 13-46.  1995 we started 17-42.  1981 we started 18-40 with 1 tie.  Finishes prorated to 162 games: 63-99 (1995) and 60-102 (1981 & 1982).