Kohl Stewart - 2016

[formerly33]

Kohl Stewart, a 21-yr-old right handed pitcher, turned down a football and baseball scholarship at Texas A&M after being drafted 4th overall by the Minnesota Twins in the 2013 First-Year Player Draft following a tremendous season at St. Pius X High School in Houston, Texas, in which he posted a 5-1 record with an 0.18 ERA and clubbed 10 home runs, earning honors to the 2013 Gatorade Texas High School Player of the Year award.
 
http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/17_DRAFT060514STEWART_30044192.JPG
Kohl Stewart delivers a pitch during a game with the Elizabethton Twins in 2013 | Image courtesy of startribune.com
 
Drafted for his potential, Stewart was raw and definitely a project going forward. Though he has good stuff with a 60 fastball, plus slider, and additional curve and changeup which show potential of being Major League average, his strikeout numbers have been a topic of continued concern over the past few years, especially given the quality of his pitches.
 
In his defense, he has had an injury riddled pro career, struggling with a shoulder injury which landed him on the disabled list in each of his first two years and spending another three weeks on the DL early in the 2015 season due to right elbow inflammation. However, although he remained healthy the rest of last season, his ability to miss bats showed little to no sign of improvement.
 
With 24 strikeouts in 20 innings pitched in Kohl's first year of affiliated baseball, his strikeouts per nine stood at 10.8 at the end of the year after pitching in the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues. That number was to drop to 6.4 the following year in Cedar Rapids (meanwhile, his previous BB9 of 1.8 rose to 2.5), but he maintained a 2.59 ERA and earned a promotion to Fort Myers. The following year his SO9 dropped to a glaring 4.9, and once again his BB9 rose, this time to 3.1. Despite this, restricting his opponents to softly hit groundballs led to a decent ERA of 3.20. In his career playing professional baseball, he has consistently allowed little hard contact and draws more than two groundouts for every fly out, and in his 253.2 innings in the minors, he has allowed only 7 home runs.
 
This year, Kohl is already showing improvement in the strikeout department after just three games at Fort Myers. It's a small sample size, but it could be the beginning of a breakout year for the young pitcher. In his first game of the season, he went 6 innings, walking 1 and striking out 7. During his next start, he went another 6 innings and struck out 6. On the 20th, he went 5.1 innings before things began to fall apart in the 6th, resulting in 3 earned runs, but he picked up 8 strikeouts. That equates to a slash line of a 1-0 record, 2.60 ERA, 21 strikeouts, and only 3 walks in 17.1 innings pitched.
 
Kohl is still young and doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2017 season and then has three additional option years, so the Twins can allow him plenty of time to develop at his own pace. He ended 2015 going deeper into games than he had at any other point since being drafted, and if he can stay healthy this year and control his pitches for more strikeouts, we can look forward to seeing him in Chattanooga by the end of the season. Most of all, it's important to remember that he's still a 21-yr-old in High A who has already suffered drawbacks to his career in the form of injuries. No need to panic - yet.
 
http://www.captivephotons.com/Events/Miracle/Players/Kohl-Stewart/i-MZXHQNn/2/X3/Miracle%20v%20Bradenton%2004-08-2016%20-%20DD5_9450_71938-X3.jpg
Image courtesy of captivephotons.com

[Mike Sixel]

This is a great start for him. To me, this was the year he turned one of two corners......I'm glad he chose the best one so far!

[Bob Sacamento]

Video I took of Kohl's side session 3/12/16, you can see the natural movement on his pitches.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMcDkjb2St8

[Vanimal46]

 

Video I took of Kohl's side session 3/12/16, you can see the natural movement on his pitches.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMcDkjb2St8

Great video!! I would be curled up in the fetal position if I had to step in the batter's box against that.... 

[Shane Wahl]

The move to AA has produced some shakiness, but the move was deserving. It would appear that he will get to 140-150 innings this year, and I would still imagine that 2018 is his ETA.

[Shane Wahl]

59.1 IP in AA, with a 3.19 ERA, 5.2 k/9, 3.8 bb/9. Many of his strikes are getting hit in AA ball, so that will be an adjustment going forward for next year.

[Mike Sixel]

He's not bad, and he's healthy. I like both of those.

[Shane Wahl]

2016 Summary

 

Over 60% of Stewart's season was spent in AA, after a strong start in A+.

 

In 143.2 innings between the two levels, he posted a 2.88 ERA, had 91 strikeouts, 63 walks (5.7/3.9), and a 1.343 WHIP. He did give up only six homers. 

 

 

2017 Outlook

 

Stewart just turned 22, and before he turns 23, he should have over 260 IP at AA. Obviously, the lack of strikeouts and the growth in walks should be troubling. Things have to start turning around in 2017, or else the concerns or worries people have will turn to real doubts. I understand that he was such a raw pitcher, but a lot of pitchers out of high school are raw . . . but they also strike batters out when the have mid-high 90s heat.

 

[Vanimal46]

Not sure who told Stewart that he needs to be a ground ball inducing, sinker ball pitcher. If he truly has mid 90's heat, start blowing some pitches by AA batters.