Premium Defensive Outfield

[Oxtung]

You mean like this:  http://m.mlb.com/video/v42569983/balmin-kepler-makes-diving-catch-to-end-frame

 

or this: http://m.milb.com/t498/video/208098083

To be fair, every mlb OF should be able to make a diving catch. The question should more be about his routes and reaction time and acceleration none of which we can measure without seeing more in the videos. On the other hand, he has played some CF at AA this year where as Arcia didn't after rookie ball IIRC. Hard to know until we see him up here for awhile.

[nytwinsfan]

 

To be fair, every mlb OF should be able to make a diving catch. The question should more be about his routes and reaction time and acceleration none of which we can measure without seeing more in the videos. On the other hand, he has played some CF at AA this year where as Arcia didn't after rookie ball IIRC. Hard to know until we see him up here for awhile.

 

Yeah, of course. I was responding to the claim that after having "seen" Kepler play outfield, he looked Arciaesque, which to me means awkward unathletic movements with poor timing and last-second lunges at balls, etc. In other words, the eye test. Kepler looks like a gazelle, and not even just in comparison to Arcia.  That being said, the eye test can certainly be deceiving, so if Thrylos would like to provide some range data to show that Kepler's defensive range (which is largely based on routes and reaction time as you note) is similar to Arcia's, I'd be happy to look at it.  Everything I've heard is that his defense is solid-average to above average in the corner outfield.  Maybe the data will show that his range is as limited as Arcia's but I severely doubt it.

 

BTW, that's not to knock Arcia as a player. He's got tremendous power. He just doesn't look or turn out after looking at the data to be that good of a defensive outfielder.

[Thrylos]

 

Yeah, of course. I was responding to the claim that after having "seen" Kepler play outfield, he looked Arciaesque, which to me means awkward unathletic movements with poor timing and last-second lunges at balls, etc. In other words, the eye test. Kepler looks like a gazelle, and not even just in comparison to Arcia.  That being said, the eye test can certainly be deceiving, so if Thrylos would like to provide some range data to show that Kepler's defensive range (which is largely based on routes and reaction time as you note) is similar to Arcia's, I'd be happy to look at it.  Everything I've heard is that his defense is solid-average to above average in the corner outfield.  Maybe the data will show that his range is as limited as Arcia's but I severely doubt it.

 

BTW, that's not to knock Arcia as a player. He's got tremendous power. He just doesn't look or turn out after looking at the data to be that good of a defensive outfielder.

 

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money.   He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.  Actually more like fall forward than dive.   Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...

It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.

 

[RJM96]

Not that this matters, but MLB.com has Kepler graded at a 50 for defense. (average) Rosario is graded a 45. (slightly below average)

[RJM96]

How many HRs can we expect out of Kepler in his prime?

[stringer bell]

I think defense is really hard to project. We can see the tools, but sometimes things really click and sometimes they don't. Errors can tell part of the story, but by themselves don't really indicate how good a player's tools are.

 

In his first major league go-round, Rosario has been very good. I would expect rookies to struggle some on defense even if the player has great tools.

[Thrylos]

 

How many HRs can we expect out of Kepler in his prime?

 

Somewhere between Gene Larkin and Marty Cordova (both are decent comparables, btw)  15-20.  Unless he changes his approach like Dozier did, which will likely add 10 HRs but subtract 25-50 points from his BA

[nytwinsfan]

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money.   He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.  Actually more like fall forward than dive.   Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...

It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.

I guess we're not watching the same video then, because the only part I can see of him in the first video (which is admittedly poorly shot) is the very end just before he catches the ball, where he looks very athletic. I'm not sure where the "waiting like a statue part is."

[Willihammer]

 

I wasn't saying he doesn't have a great arm.   In fact I said he along with Rosario, Buxton and Santana all have  cannons.     I know Buxton threw hard in HS also but as far as I know no one has clocked Rocario.   I've just seen him make some throws that tell me he shouldn't be considered the weak sister.

Couple more tonight!

 

Accurate too.

[jimbo92107]

 

Could not see the second video but the first one, is right on the money.   He waits like a statue until the ball is 20 feet ahead and realizes that he has to dive.  Actually more like fall forward than dive.   Lots of diving catches at the OF are because of ball misjudgement...

It was a lazy fly ball, not a screaming line drive.

So Max Kepler has not yet learned to get an early break on balls by knowing the situation, the pitcher, the hitter, and timing his break accordingly. It's one of the last things a young outfielder learns. Aaron Hicks spoke about getting tips on that art from Torii Hunter this season. Could be that one of the best reasons to bring back Hunter is to pass along some of that knowledge to Kepler, too. He's a smart young man, and he has improved on every aspect of his game where he's had coaching.

[jimbo92107]

Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks and Max Kepler will be the four-man rotation in the outfield for the next few years. Kepler brings a high-average gap power bat to the lineup, and I'll assume he will learn how to get better breaks on fly balls. He'll also be able to platoon 1B with Joe Mauer, so there should be a good balance of playing time for everybody.

 

I'm worried that Oswaldo Arcia may be suffering from a lingering hip problem. That could keep him from getting back to the majors. Meanwhile, Kennys Vargas is a big,strong man that won't remain much longer in the minors. Somebody has to bat behind Miguel Sano.