Reds Trade Idea (Outside the box)

[DaveW]

Kepler+Harrison+Milone+PTBNL for Aroldis Chapman+Jay Bruce

 

Why it makes sense for the Twins:

Chapman is on the short list for best RP in the game, over his last 4 seasons he has a 16.1 k/9 ratio, 1.93 ERA, 1.65 FIP. He instantly gives Minnesota one of the top 1/2 bullpen punches in the league along with Perkins. (Who closes is irrelevant) and is under team control next year as well. (The Twins would get a comp pick if he were to depart via free agency in 2017)

 

Bruce adds some much needed left handed hitting with pop to the lineup, he should hit 25+ HR this year, and currrently sports a .827 OPS.  He is only 28 and has posted an OPS+ of 118 or higher in every year dating back to 2010 with the exception of 2014 which is a clear outlier. He has hit 30+ HR 3 times,

 

Additionally he isn't a black hole against LHP hitting .737 against them for his career, so he could be an everyday option, his fielding in RF is pretty solid and gives the Twins a good option in RF or DH if need be. His contract is reasonable and is owed 12.5 million in 2016 with a 13 mil team option in 2017. If the Twins ultimately prove to not need his services sometime in 2016, he can easily be flipped.

 

Why it makes sense for the Reds:

The Reds are in a full rebuild, Kepler gives them a high impact bat who could help them in the corner OF as early as next year, Milone is a cheap option that slots into the rotation and should be a solid NL #4 type.

Thoughts?

 

 

[drjim]

Is the PTBNL Berrios?

[DaveW]

 

Is the PTBNL Berrios?

Looking at the other RP traded this year, I don't think Berrios would be needed to get Chapman.

 

Maybe you toss in a guy like Hu or Gonsalves instead of a PTNBL

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I'd love it. Although I would think the Twins would need to give up more to get both Reds players.

 

Two other fun things to think about.

 

1) If you get Chapman, you'd probably let him stay as a reliever this year for the playoff run. But next year, do you do what most people have been hoping the Reds do for the past few years and turn him into a starter?

 

2) Who would you be more comfortable trading away, Adam Brett Walker II or Max Kepler?

[drjim]

 

Looking at the other RP traded this year, I don't think Berrios would be needed to get Chapman.

 

Maybe you toss in a guy like Hu or Gonsalves instead of a PTNBL

 

You realize Chapman is significantly better (to put it lightly) and controlled another year compared to the relievers traded.

[DaveW]

You realize Chapman is significantly better (to put it lightly) and controlled another year compared to the relievers traded.

papelbon has another year control. Chapman is better no doubt, but Kepler is significantly better than what Washington gave up

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be interested in a Hu for chapman deal or something along those lines.  Not sure about trading for Bruce.  I don't see that being a fit unless he was a catcher.  Given the reliever trades, I could see someone like Chapman or Kimbrel coming this way for a reasonable prospect price.

[Mike Sixel]

No chance the Reds do that. I'm not sure that is enough for even 1 of those players, let alone 2.

 

Wheeler will go to the Reds for Bruce and something else. Wheeler.......

[awinter]

 

 

 

Maybe you toss in a guy like Hu or Gonsalves instead of a PTNBL

 I've seen this idea on several trade proposals and I have a hard time with this. Hu and Gonsalves are far from untouchable, but the idea that the Twins could just "toss in" two of their fastest rising prospects bothers me. They should only be parted with as the centerpiece of a deal that brings back a quality player.

[DaveW]

I'd love it. Although I would think the Twins would need to give up more to get both Reds players.

 

Two other fun things to think about.

 

1) If you get Chapman, you'd probably let him stay as a reliever this year for the playoff run. But next year, do you do what most people have been hoping the Reds do for the past few years and turn him into a starter?

 

2) Who would you be more comfortable trading away, Adam Brett Walker II or Max Kepler?

1. I would let him pitch out of the bullpen in 2015, then I would sign him to a 5 year 80 million dollar deal (avoid arbitration) I would then test him as a SP in spring training, if he can't pitch like an ace or a high end #2, then slot him back in the bullpen and you have a shutdown guy for 5 years.

 

2. Walker and it isn't even close.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'd love it. Although I would think the Twins would need to give up more to get both Reds players.

 

Two other fun things to think about.

 

1) If you get Chapman, you'd probably let him stay as a reliever this year for the playoff run. But next year, do you do what most people have been hoping the Reds do for the past few years and turn him into a starter?

 

2) Who would you be more comfortable trading away, Adam Brett Walker II or Max Kepler?

1. No, would keep him in relief. That's too risky.

 

2. Walker, obviously. By far.

[DaveW]

No chance the Reds do that. I'm not sure that is enough for even 1 of those players, let alone 2.

 

Wheeler will go to the Reds for Bruce and something else. Wheeler.......

the Mets would be foolish to give up wheeler for Bruce. Also the Mets have no room to take on any payroll, they wanted The Brewers to kick in to help pay for Gomez and his meager 9 mil next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Bruce and something else.....and something else.

[AKTwins]

I think if you switched Rosario for Harrison it would work.   Open up a spot in the OF for Bruce immediately.  Reds have major league ready OF.  They will want a minor league pitcher too.  I like the idea of Hu, but I would consider Gonsalves untouchable.  I would maybe trade Batts.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

1. No, would keep him in relief. That's too risky.

 

2. Walker, obviously. By far.

 

I get the Kepler over Walker argument, but I think it's gotta be a closer call. Relatively same age between the two. Walker's been consistent while Kepler has been injury-prone and really only produced this season. Plus I think going forward power like Walker's is going to come at a premium, even if it comes with a ton of strikeouts. Teams are more willing to deal with that as power is dropping throughout the league.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I get the Kepler over Walker argument, but I think it's gotta be a closer call. Relatively same age between the two. Walker's been consistent while Kepler has been injury-prone and really only produced this season. Plus I think going forward power like Walker's is going to come at a premium, even if it comes with a ton of strikeouts. Teams are more willing to deal with that as power is dropping throughout the league.

Walker is a year and a half older, which is a pretty big deal for prospects, and Kepler also grew up not playing high quality ball until he was 16, so if anything he is probably behind developmentally relative to American and Dominican minor leagues. And right now Kepler actually has more power than Walker (higher slugging, believe it or not). Power isn't just HRs. It is doubles, triples, and hits.  Obviously long term one would expect Walker to have a significantly higher power potential, if he makes contact. But that is a huge huge If. I get it, HRs are sexy. But I think it can be pretty plausibly argued that they are overvalued by teams, and especially by fans. Every point of OBP is worth significantly more than every point of SLG. So not only does Kepler have more doubles/triples power than he is given credit for, he also makes up for it a lot in terms of better OBP and better defense. Nor is there anything about Kepler's injuries that suggests he is particularly "injury prone." When you add the 1.5+ years of additional development for Walker, this isn't even close. Kepler is by far the more valuable prospect.

[kab21]

I am on board but you won't be able to get one of those players for kepler/Harrison/Milone/PTBNL.  Could Kepler/Rosario/Polanco/Gonsalves get it done?  

 

Some will think that is way too much to give up but Bruce is a 3-4 WAR 30 HR hitter and Chapman is one of the best closers in baseball.  The Twins make a deal w/o giving up Berrios and end up with two really good players.  the only unfortunate thing is that C and SS are still issues.

[Andrew]

I love it but....

 

 

Don't touch My Kepler!

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am on board but you won't be able to get one of those players for kepler/Harrison/Milone/PTBNL.  Could Kepler/Rosario/Polanco/Gonsalves get it done?  

 

Some will think that is way too much to give up but Bruce is a 3-4 WAR 30 HR hitter and Chapman is one of the best closers in baseball.  The Twins make a deal w/o giving up Berrios and end up with two really good players.  the only unfortunate thing is that C and SS are still issues.

 

that seems more fair to me. Man......that's so fair I don't know what I'd do.

[DaveW]

 

I am on board but you won't be able to get one of those players for kepler/Harrison/Milone/PTBNL.  Could Kepler/Rosario/Polanco/Gonsalves get it done?  

 

Some will think that is way too much to give up but Bruce is a 3-4 WAR 30 HR hitter and Chapman is one of the best closers in baseball.  The Twins make a deal w/o giving up Berrios and end up with two really good players.  the only unfortunate thing is that C and SS are still issues.

C can be temporarily fixed by grabbing AJ for next to nothing.

 

C/SS can be fixed next season by trading Plouffe.

 

Sano to 3B

Arcia/Hunter type for a DH platoon.

 

 

[kab21]

Plouffe most likely won't bring you back the C/SS that you want.  The reason has nothing to do with Plouffe but rather how incredibly difficult it is to make an MLB for MLB (or MLB ready) trade that is that position specific. 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Plouffe most likely won't bring you back the C/SS that you want.  The reason has nothing to do with Plouffe but rather how incredibly difficult it is to make an MLB for MLB (or MLB ready) trade that is that position specific. 

True, but maybe it helps get you pieces that you can turn around and trade for a SS/C?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Plouffe most likely won't bring you back the C/SS that you want.  The reason has nothing to do with Plouffe but rather how incredibly difficult it is to make an MLB for MLB (or MLB ready) trade that is that position specific. 

 

If I can't use him to get a SS or C (somehow), then I just keep him, I think. I'm not interested in weakening the roster for low level prospects......

[kab21]

 

If I can't use him to get a SS or C (somehow), then I just keep him, I think. I'm not interested in weakening the roster for low level prospects......

Absolutely.   I don't like the idea of trading Plouffe at all. 

[gil4]

 

2) Who would you be more comfortable trading away, Adam Brett Walker II or Max Kepler?

Walker.