Article: First-Half Most Improved Twins

[Brandon Warne]

When a team plays drastically better from one year to the next, it usually means one of a couple of things. With some teams, it means a number of key offseason acquisitions have paid off. For others, especially if the roster is largely intact from a season ago, it suggests that some guys — usually younger players — have taken a step forward and elevated their game to a new level.Considering the complexion of this current Twins roster, the latter seems far more likely. Sure, players from the outside have (Torii Hunter, Blaine Boyer) and will (Ervin Santana) continue to shape the way this team evolves, but this is largely the same roster from a season ago, and most of the changes that’ll come after the break will come from within.

 

So who has improved the most on this Twins roster from a season ago? Here’s a look at my personal picks, in order. Feel free to differ if you like, via Twitter with @Brandon_Warne or @ColdOmahaMN, or in the comments section below.

 

1. Trevor May

 

May’s growth has been nothing short of amazing. It’s not just because he’s got really nice peripheral numbers, or that his ERA — while still a bit high at 4.16 — is so much under what he did in his shot of espresso last year with the Twins. It’s because May has completely reversed a trend, at least so far, that had plagued him through his entire development as a rather highly-regarded prospect. Walks were always part of the deal with May, who peaked as the No. 51 prospect on Baseball Prospectus’ pre-2012 list. May walked 4.4 batters per nine innings in his seven minor league seasons, and 4.3 per nine in his 10 appearances with the big club last year as well. The stuff was raw and powerful, but the belief was always that his command would hold him down as a back-end horse who could eat up innings with lots of strikeouts and walks. Or in the worst case, he’d profile as a late-inning power reliever.

 

That all has changed this season, as May told Cold Omaha in an exclusive earlier this year, as he decided to just not be afraid anymore. May has attacked the strike zone in much the same way — though not to the same exact effect — as Phil Hughes did a season ago, and the results have been quite good. May has walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings this season and has walked more than two batters in just three of 18 starts so far. He did the same last year in his nine starts with the Twins and six times in 18 starts at Rochester. The change-up (16.1 percent whiff rate, .637 OPS against) has been big for May, as has been a new-found reliance on a two-seam fastball, which has not only filled up the strike zone, but induced a healthy number of grounders as well. He’ll need to continue to avoid walks and miss a few more bats to reach his xFIP and FIP, but he’s already improved by leaps and bounds in just a short time in the majors.

 

2. Aaron Hicks

 

Hicks looks like an entirely different player, and it’s in pretty much every fashion. He’s ascended into the defensive player he was always advertised to be, making highlight-reel catches with relative ease while showing off a powerful and accurate arm. He’s also started to drive the ball more, and in recent games has seen his usually precise batting eye return in the form of adding walks back into the mix. Add it up and you’ve got a batter hitting .266/.333/.387 with a higher walk rate (9.4 percent) than Joe Mauer. The AL average center fielder has a wOBA of .318; Hicks’ is .319. Don’t be surprised if this is your starting right fielder next season.

 

3. Kyle Gibson

 

Gibson’s growth on the whole is pretty unremarkable, as his 2014 and 2015 seasons are mostly indistinguishable when you look at peripherals. He’s slashed his ERA a run and a half, but he’s done so with better strand rates, nearly an extra strikeout per nine innings and virtually the same batted-ball profile. But where Gibson’s growth has come most has been in recent starts, at least in my opinion. Gibson has posted 59 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, spanning 65.1 innings for an 8.1 K/9 mark in that span. That’s well above anything Gibson has done for any extended stretch of time, and could be him turning the corner and becoming a very nice No. 2 starter, especially when used in conjunction with his fantastic penchant for inducing grounders. Gibson’s growth pitch-wise has come with the slider, which is inducing swinging strikes at a 20.7 percent rate — a career high. The change-up has also taken steps forward (17.9 percent this year, 13.8 last), and his two-seamer has a ground ball rate of 65.5 percent. He’s on the upswing, folks.

 

4. Brian Dozier

 

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Dozier has become better than his grand breakout in 2014, yet here we are. Dozier faded a bit in the second half in 2014, but if you were to extrapolate his numbers out evenly to 700 plate appearances, he played at a 4.8 fWAR pace a season ago, and is at a pace for a 5.9 mark this season. He’s not walking quite as much as last year, but you can see it simply in his triple-slash. Last year he hit .242/.345/.416; this year, he’s at .256/.328/.513. It remains to be seen if there’s another second half slowdown in his future, but right now his blistering pace is ahead of last year’s tremendous run, overall. This is a star, perhaps verging on superstar.

 

5. Tommy Milone

 

Neither Milone nor Sam Fuld did much for their respective clubs after last season’s trade found them on the move. But unlike Fuld, who has continued to flounder in Oakland this season, Milone has taken his game to a new level and has now made decisions awfully difficult for the Twins brass in the first half. Milone sprung out of the gate before faltering pretty hard and getting sent to Rochester, but that stretch at Triple-A seems to have ignited something inside the lefty, as he’s pitched like a man possessed since returning. Milone allowed just three earned runs in his five-start stay in Rochester (0.70 ERA), and since returning in early June has slashed his ERA by nearly two full runs. Milone returned to a 4.55 ERA but has that all the way down to 2.83 after this seven-start stretch: 1.84 ERA, .236/.284/.345 opponents’ line and 32-11 K/BB ratio in 44 innings. In other words, he’s averaging pitching well into the sixth inning, taking pressure off an otherwise-distressed Twins bullpen while giving the club a quality start in the last six straight. Milone has never been, nor will he ever be, overpowering but for now he seems to have a stronger hold on his starting spot than rotation mate Mike Pelfrey, who is a free agent at season’s end.

 

Also considered: Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Pressly, Pelfrey

 

This article appeared originally at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content.

 

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[halfchest]

The other unmentioned factor in the teams improvement comes from the prospect wave we have all been clamoring for.  We saw some last year in Santana and Vargas and most thought they were unlikely to repeat last years numbers but they are likely better than what we've seen from them last year.  

 

However, we've gotten to see Rosario come up and provide offense along with short stints from Buxton and Sano.  This is not to mention guys still in the minors like Polanco, Kepler, and Berrios who are on the horizon.   Not to mention some underperformers likely to contribute at some point like Meyer, Burdi, and Arcia that have had some struggles.  It's exciting to see this team progressing and still having a number of strong future contributors sitting in the high minors waiting for their shots.  The future seems very bright.  

[halfchest]

I felt Gibson needed a seperate post.  I've been a big fan for a long time, viewing him as a Scott Baker + groundball ability type player prior to his TJ surgery.  I've been really hoping he would find a way to start missing more bats to make him into that player and the last two months he has shown that ability and am truly starting to buy into him as a #2 starter.  

 

There is likely to be some regression by some of these guys but more than enough guys that should improve to even this out.  SS (Santana/Escobar/Polanco), C(Suzuki/Fryer/acquisition), and DH (Sano/Varga/Arcia) and 1B (Mauer/Vargas/Kepler) all have a very good chance of improving offensively.   This should all help to counteract any regression from other areas and overall improve the team.  

[HitInAPinch]

#1 plus this year:  Dumping the MLB coaching staff that seemed to be complacent with losing 90 games per year.

 

I've always liked sinkerball pitchers.  I've always like pairing guys like Milone with pitching staffs that have guys like May.  I see May in a quick return to the rotation.  Pelfrey's final meltdown can't be too far away.

Had serious doubts about Hicks, especially missing THAT flyball in Texas.  He's been having a lot of really good AB's lately.  His chart is upward bound.

Dozier:  would it kill you to hit to the opposite field once in awhile?? 

 

Biggest concern:  bullpen.  I'd probably grab Fasor to plug part of the hole. 

 

[dbminn]

A fine analysis of the first half, Brandon. It's great that the Twins have improved enough that this article was possible.

 

While May has shown improvement all year, Hicks is the player that has shown the most surprising gains. He still has a lot of rough edges at the plate but the light has turned on. His continued solid play is needed if the Twins are going to make the playoffs.

[uberfan]

So happy for Aaron Hicks. As I recall, it took him a long time to catch on at each level he moved up to. Then, sure enough, eventually he would excel. I think he's reached that point now at the major league level.

[Loosey]

One thing that I don't have numbers for in front me, nor is it an individual player but Outfield Defense has improved greatly.  Does anyone have a statistic in front of them that can show this improvement in numbers?

[clone52]

I actually think May's improvement started last year.  In his final 7 starts for the Twins, his walk rate was just 2.2/9 innings.