Joe Mauer v. the Low Strike

[Kanonen80]

I noticed that Joe Mauer took a few pitches just below the knees for strikes last night, so I was curious as to whether this has been happening a lot and if maybe it's related to Joe having a down season.

 

Here's is his chart for "Called Strikes":

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_called_strikes.png

 

That seems like an awful lot of pitches low and away OUT of the zone being called strikes. Joe has a reputation for having good strike zone control (which seems to be reflected in the relatively low numbers everywhere else. Perhaps Mauer has a weakness low and away that opposing pitchers have found and are pounding, while getting some help from the umps?

 

All pitches:

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_all_pitches.png

 

Looks that way. Here are his swinging strikes:

 

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_swinging_stikes.png

 

Doesn't seem to be many, but the 'hot' zones are him trying after those balls low and out of the zone.

 

How about balls he hits, but are turned into outs?

 

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_in_play_outs.png

 

Again, a lot of those low balls out of the zone. Is it because those balls are hard to elevate?

 

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_ground_balls.png

 

(Ground Balls) - probably.

 

So it appears that Joe Mauer knows he had a weakness low and away so isn't offering at a ton of pitches thrown there. However, there is a LOT of pitches thrown there. The perception in the past seemed to be that Joe Mauer didn't have any weak zones at the plate, but it certainly seems like he does now. And the umpires aren't helping either. 

 

Here are "called balls", just for fun:

http://pebabaseball.com/wp-content/pictures/Joe%20Mauer_balls.png

 

Definitely looks like the umps are erring more in favor of pitchers than batters, no?

 

[Kanonen80]

Update: I did look back to some of his charts from 2009 and they aren't that much different (he actually seemed to roll over more up-and-in pitches some how), so that seems to poke holes in my "pitchers found a weakness" theory. Though it is still interesting to see what pitchers are doing to him and makes me wonder if he can make some sort of adjustment to be more effective down-and-away that maybe it can make up for some of whatever is responsible for his decline. 

[jimmer]

The called strike zone has expanded in the last 5 or so seasons and, IMO, a guy like Mauer, who has such a keen eye on how the strike zone was called most of his career, has an even harder to adjusting than most.

[drjim]

A big and underreported reason why offense is down overall. Velocity and pitches called strikes that players can't do anything with.

 

What's interesting is, from what I have read, this is being driven by newer umps who came to the league under video review. So this is what the league wants - the umps are going to make the calls they are being judged on.

[USAFChief]

 

The called strike zone has expanded in the last 5 or so seasons and, IMO, a guy like Mauer, who has such a keen eye on how the strike zone was called most of his career, has an even harder to adjusting than most.

If he's got such a keen eye for the zone, it seems to me he should be one of the hitters most able to adjust to small changes.

 

There are hitters in the big leagues having success.  There's no reason a small change in the strike zone, if there has been one, should have such an enormous effect on Mauer.  Or if it has, no reason he shouldn't be expected to adjust to it, just like everyone else is expected to.

 

 

[Kanonen80]

 

If he's got such a keen eye for the zone, it seems to me he should be one of the hitters most able to adjust to small changes.

 

There are hitters in the big leagues having success.  There's no reason a small change in the strike zone, if there has been one, should have such an enormous effect on Mauer.  Or if it has, no reason he shouldn't be expected to adjust to it, just like everyone else is expected to.

 

Yeah, my follow up researching looking at his 2009 values seems to support that it maybe doesn't have as big an affect as I first thought. But now that he's no longer otherworldly on pitches in the zone it looks to me like maybe he needs to make some adjustments to shore up a weakness. I mean, that's easy to do, right? 

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, my follow up researching looking at his 2009 values seems to support that it maybe doesn't have as big an affect as I first thought. But now that he's no longer otherworldly on pitches in the zone it looks to me like maybe he needs to make some adjustments to shore up a weakness. I mean, that's easy to do, right? 

Maybe he's not other-worldly in the zone as much as he used to be because the zone, as it's called now, has expanded?

 

He definitely needs to adjust for sure, but I don't think it's that easy for a guy who values OBP as much as he does and knows it's important to get his pitch to hit and if not, take a walk. One thing for sure, there is no doubt the called strike zone has expanded quite a bit in the last 5 or so years.  It's not debatable, it's not a matter of opinion, it has happened for sure.

[USAFChief]

 

Maybe he's not other-worldly in the zone as much as he used to be because the zone, as it's called now, has expanded?

 

He definitely needs to adjust for sure, but I don't think it's that easy for a guy who values OBP as much as he does and knows it's important to get his pitch to hit and if not, take a walk. One thing for sure, there is no doubt the called strike zone has expanded quite a bit in the last 5 or so years.  It's not debatable, it's not a matter of opinion, it has happened for sure.

Well, he can keep "valuing OBP as much as he does," and have 22 unintentional walks halfway through the season, to go along with .700 OPS, or he can try to do something about it.

 

I'm no expert, but not starting his AB down a strike or two so often would be worth a try.  Adjusting his swing so that he can pull the ball in the air, like most hitters, might be another.  

[jimmer]

 

Update: I did look back to some of his charts from 2009 and they aren't that much different (he actually seemed to roll over more up-and-in pitches some how), so that seems to poke holes in my "pitchers found a weakness" theory. Though it is still interesting to see what pitchers are doing to him and makes me wonder if he can make some sort of adjustment to be more effective down-and-away that maybe it can make up for some of whatever is responsible for his decline. 

He has been very disappointing this year overall.  In some situations, he's been very good (like with RISP and men on), but overall, yeah, he needs to do something different, no doubt.  I like that, over the last couple weeks, he seems to be going away from how he was going about his at bats earlier in the season.  I like that he's going the other way more because that's how he's most comfortable hitting.