Who do you want the Twins to draft?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

If you want safe and quick to the bigs why not bregman? College bats are statistically the safest picks. At least he has a ceiling worthy as a high pick.

 

Point is if you draft a guy, no matter where in the first round, because he is safe\quick riser and he fails to do so you lost value. I rather put stock in ceiling over how fast they can help a club. We have the deepest farm in baseball so why do we need a mid rotation arm up in 2 years?

Hate to break it to ya but the odds of Bregman being there for the Twins is getting slimmer and slimmer the closer we get to the draft.  Lastest info has him going as high as #1 or 2 because just as you put it college bats are the safest picks.  Bregman has arguably the best bat in the entire draft, his biggest downgrade is he's a 2B.

 

In most drafts, I'm for taking the BPA (best player available) problem is this draft is the worst since 2000.  This draft is full of quagmires and huge gambles, moreso than usual.  Unlike in years past, there isn't a runaway player, no HS pitcher distanced himself from the pack, the HS bats are few and far between,  while the college arms were hit hard by injuries and the ones who did preform have advanced scout picking them to end up in the bullpen (Tate and Fullmer). Thus if you are looking for a college starting pitcher, Buehler is probably your best, safest and surest bet to stay a starting pitcher.

 

Honestly I'd rather have two picks in the 25-40 range than a top 10 pick this year.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

How about Hultzen? He was a "safe" and "quick to the bigs" arm who has failed to live up to either of those. Point is if you draft a guy, no matter where in the first round, because he is safe\quick riser and he fails to do so you lost value. I rather put stock in ceiling over how fast they can help a club. We have the deepest farm in baseball so why do we need a mid rotation arm up in 2 years?

If you want safe and quick to the bigs why not bregman? College bats are statistically the safest picks. At least he has a ceiling worthy as a high pick.

On a side note Wacha fell because of injury like Gibson. He also only had two big league pitches, some evaluators still think he only does, so I don't see him as a comparison to the rest of the names you and I have named.

 

IMO, the goal with a top ten pick is always to get a high-ceiling player with a high-floor. You can get high-ceilings at 20. You can get high-floors at 20. But the players who go early in the draft tend to combine those two traits. The problem is there aren't a lot of guys in this draft who fit this mold. If there were a Hultzen-type college pitching prospect in this draft and he were available at 6 this year, it would be a no-brainer pick. But for the most part, all the college pitchers should have question marks as their numbers. Tate, Jay and Fulmer have deliveries that scream either reliever or Steve Blass disease (aka, high ceiling, low floor). Buehler, Kaprelian and Harris have questionable stuff (low ceiling, high floor). Allard, Aiken and Mattula have questionable health (high ceilings, indeterminable floor).

 

If Bregman lasts until six, it's a no-brainer. But the odds are he won't be there in this draft. So it really comes down to what risk you want to take. And I get Buehler to an extent, even though it isn't the move I'd make. If you have a firm belief that your #1 and #2 pitchers for 2018 are already in the system in the form of Berrios/Meyer/Stewart/Gonsalves etc, playing it safe and trying to find the next Scott Baker isn't a bad play. 

[notoriousgod71]

 

I will be the contrarian and go for Carson Fulmer.

 

I think he is the high upside pick. The gamble is can he stick as a Starting pitcher. I take him over Tate because he has been starting longer, doing so against better competition and has better results. I have heard it mention that as the season has progressed Tate's stuff has tailed off while Fulmer's has not. 

 

 

That is my vote as well. He reminds me of a cross between a young Greinke/Jered Weaver.

[notoriousgod71]

After watching CSF today I have to think Ryan is in love with Thomas Eshelman. He looks like a Tewksbury-Hershiser (or Slowey as my buddy said) pitcher with outstanding control and a miniscule ERA.

 

He walked his 19th career batter today in his third season. Ryan has to be salivating over him...

[celery]

Illinois versus Vandy is on ESPNU tonight. Fulmer is starting and we may also have a chance to watch Jay pitch

[Einstein1]

Just throwing this out there.  How about they go Cameron, and if his contract demands are out of line, they take a pass on signing him and grab the 6th pick next year when the draft is supposed to be much stronger.  Crazy?  

[gunnarthor]

 

Just throwing this out there.  How about they go Cameron, and if his contract demands are out of line, they take a pass on signing him and grab the 6th pick next year when the draft is supposed to be much stronger.  Crazy?  

My guess is that Cameron signs just like Rodon last year. 

[kab21]

Cameron is going to sign for sure.  But it will probably be for 400-500K overslot.  Is it worth it to lose the overslot potential in rds 2-4 or possibly have to go cheap with one of those picks? 

[Twins33]

Tate or Fulmer. Can't decide between the two, but I believe one or both will be available at the time.