Deep fantasy baseball league

[kab21]

Ugh just kill me now. Matt Harvey of New York Mets has partial tear in elbow - ESPN New York

 

Somehow I still have a decent rotation without Harvey. I think most teams would be happy with Sale/Holland/Garza/Lackey/Buehrle/Estrada.

[username]

Yeah, good luck, Mike. It would have been nice to see an all BYTO championship series, but oh well.

 

thought i was dead in the water but my team had a huge second week to pull out the win(even with leaving a billion points on my bench).

 

hopefully can pull out the win vs nick. we were super close to a monster deal -

 

cano, andrus, aramis ramirez, sabathia for kipnis, hanley, alvarez, nova but couldnt agree on the side-filler before the deadline. if we had another hour it probably wouldve gone through.

 

will be interesting to see how the matchup shakes out in light of that

[PseudoSABR]

I didn't think you were gonna pull it out.

 

I can see why you'd do that deal, get nearly the same production but simply younger. Though it might pay off for you this year. What is your loot gonna be?

[username]

I didn't think you were gonna pull it out.

 

I can see why you'd do that deal, get nearly the same production but simply younger. Though it might pay off for you this year. What is your loot gonna be?

 

yeah "even" trades where i get younger have been a successful strategy for me in this league. traded utley for cano, traded holliday for upton, traded tulowitzki for andrus, etc.

 

problem now is that a lot of the young talent is concentrated on a small number of well-managed teams (tangerine, billy buck) and i don't think they will be easy to pry away. i'd love to move fielder this offseason.

 

i forget what the winner's purse is but at this it's more about winning than the money. before you were in the league i had the championship game won and then on sunday night baseball mariano blew a save which put me back behind shining. basically if mo didn't come in i would've won. i've had lots of bad luck in fantasy but that took the cake.

 

i'm fortunate to be in a position to win this year because i'm pretty sure that radiation, shemshank and kirk's team were all superior squads.

[username]

fyi, below is the email i sent to tim for offseason topics

 

i think a good topic for off-season discussion could be the scoring system. i've always been ultra-opposed to changing anything about the scoring system since owners have adjusted their teams to reflect the current system, but i think the emphasis on, for example, pitcher wins and losses is possibly too big and really doesn't add much except for frustration and variance. i'm sure the owners of guys like harvey, fernandez and sale would agree. i'm also not a fan of giving extra points for cycles and grand slams.

we're all (presumably) big baseball fans and understand that counting stats have become outdated and don't accurately reflect players' true values, so it does seem a bit silly to play under an outdated scoring system.

 

 

no idea what the alternatives would be but i've heard good things about the fangraphs otteneau system (copied below, for reference). a big overhaul probably isn't a great idea, but thought it would be some good food for thought/generate discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

otteneau:

[TABLE]

[TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Hitting[/TD]

AB

-1.0

H

5.6

2B

2.9

3B

5.7

HR

9.4

BB

3.0

HBP

3.0

SB

1.9

CS

-2.8

[TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Pitching[/TD]

IP

7.4

K

2.0

H

-2.6

BB

-3.0

HBP

-3.0

HR

-12.3

SV

5.0

HOLDS

4.0

[/TABLE]

 

[kab21]

I thought you were a goner also but his team kind of collapsed the 2nd week after an amazing 1st week. You were strong both weeks. Maybe next year for me...

 

If Super Hanley is back for good that isn't a bad trade. We will see if any of my superstar prospect trades come back to haunt me.

 

I'm not sure if I care enough about the scoring to have an opinion or even care. I have one proposal for completely overhauling the MLB cuts and draft. Basically the best teams (the playoff teams) have to make more players eligible for the draft and they have to include prospects. I have some good MLB role players that are going to get cut (or traded) this year but David Dejesus and Marco Scutaro won't help a rebuilding team. The worst teams would get more picks because that's the whole reason for doing this in the first place. At some point I will type it up (maybe - life is crazy right now).

[username]

I thought you were a goner also but his team kind of collapsed the 2nd week after an amazing 1st week. You were strong both weeks. Maybe next year for me...

 

If Super Hanley is back for good that isn't a bad trade. We will see if any of my superstar prospect trades come back to haunt me.

 

I'm not sure if I care enough about the scoring to have an opinion or even care. I have one proposal for completely overhauling the MLB cuts and draft. Basically the best teams (the playoff teams) have to make more players eligible for the draft and they have to include prospects. I have some good MLB role players that are going to get cut (or traded) this year but David Dejesus and Marco Scutaro won't help a rebuilding team. The worst teams would get more picks because that's the whole reason for doing this in the first place. At some point I will type it up (maybe - life is crazy right now).

 

as a general matter i disagree with the idea that the MLB draft isn't helpful to the bottom-feeders (not necessarily your argument but i've seen it brought up in the past by fujimo and others).

 

i've personally dropped some solid players for that draft. they come in all forms - aging veterans and high-upside underachievers. the problem is that a lot of the bottom-feeders completely mismanage their teams and (a) don't load up on high-upside talent and ( pick up aging veterans and don't trade them.

 

for example, the year i dropped jeff samardzdja - he should've been a prime target for the bottom teams. instead, they take guys like Jon Garland or Jeff Francis, and to make matters worse, they refuse to trade them! I tried to get David Ortiz and Mariano Rivera off williemoes 100x this season and he refused. it's hard to feel sympathetic for teams like that.

 

anyway, you guys should root for me because if i win i'll probably pull a billybuck and prematurely start rebuilding. i feel like a lot of my older guys are teetering on the edge of the productivity cliff within the next 2-3 years. would probably move everyone except for like bumgarner.

[kab21]

not much of a slugfest so far but it's close going into the final 3 days.

[PseudoSABR]

That extra start from Dem's pitching will play a role. I guess over a two week period, which pitchers pitch the most is somewhat mitigated. But Dem's got some descent options going. Nova/Hamels/Price/Peralta sound a bit better than Chacin/Nolasco/Petite unfortunately. Though I think Mike has the better offense. We'll see.

[username]

That extra start from Dem's pitching will play a role. I guess over a two week period, which pitchers pitch the most is somewhat mitigated. But Dem's got some descent options going. Nova/Hamels/Price/Peralta sound a bit better than Chacin/Nolasco/Petite unfortunately. Though I think Mike has the better offense. We'll see.

 

if i lose i hope it's by more than 10 since i forgot to start Jansen when he got a saved the other night!

 

i'm probably the underdog right now. my pitching matchups were less than ideal. he's got some studs going up against bad teams/pitchers. but who knows.

[username]

it might not be obvious from this morning's box scores, but i got incredibly lucky last night. well, that's if you discount the fact i got chacin's and latos' worst starts of the season. but anyway, at one point i was down ~10 points, with price in line for a W and my pitchers in line for losses, when the following happened:

 

- price and rays bullpen allow orioles to come back (net gain 10 points)

- indians game gets called after 7 innings (he has santana, kipnis and swisher)

- melancon blows save, allows latos to escape without loss (net gain 16 points)

- chacin pulled, rockies take lead in bottom of inning (net gain 15 points)

 

yeah, those W and L swings in our scoring system are way too big. hopefully we can find some resolution.

[PseudoSABR]

yeah, those W and L swings in our scoring system are way too big. hopefully we can find some resolution.

Perhaps, but they allow for unpredictable variation. I don't think it's a good idea to move over to predictive or evaluative statistical model for 'fantasy' because the whole point is to measure what actually happens, not what should.

 

Having success in a 'wins' league means you have to factor in more than just your starting pitchers capacity to pitch well, you have to factor in bullpen, opponents, parks and luck. It's simply not much fun if we just come up a scoring system that does that math for us, and makes it easier on the people that fail to look at player's within context.

[username]

Perhaps, but they allow for unpredictable variation. I don't think it's a good idea to move over to predictive or evaluative statistical model for 'fantasy' because the whole point is to measure what actually happens, not what should.

 

Having success in a 'wins' league means you have to factor in more than just your starting pitchers capacity to pitch well, you have to factor in bullpen, opponents, parks and luck. It's simply not much fun if we just come up a scoring system that does that math for us, and makes it easier on the people that fail to look at player's within context.

 

i think there's enough variance in fantasy sports - and baseball, generally, really - and the additional swings that wins and losses introduce just make it a total crapshoot.

 

if we had a "real" scoring system, do you think our fantasy games would be any less exciting? you would still spend the offseason trying to figure out whether player X would score more than player Y, but you would just be looking at a different package of statistics in making your determination.

 

last night, nick might have lost because Fernando Rodney couldn't strike out Danny Valencia (making this up but you get my point); neither of us own these players. does that seem right to you?

 

there may be a place for wins and losses but 15 points is just enormous relative to everything else.

[PseudoSABR]

I agree that a 15 point swing is too much. I'd put more value into innings themselves to offset any reduction to wins/losses.

 

Sure it's a bit contrived, but Nova's game today sure makes for an interesting Saturday and Sunday...

[username]

I agree that a 15 point swing is too much. I'd put more value into innings themselves to offset any reduction to wins/losses.

 

Sure it's a bit contrived, but Nova's game today sure makes for an interesting Saturday and Sunday...

 

dodged the supernova and looks like i finally pulled it out. it's about time!! thanks for the support lol

[PseudoSABR]

Congrats, dude!

[username]

Congrats, dude!

 

thanks. i forget if we're allowed to talk trades in the off-season (did that rule get lifted?), but in case you guys are interested i'll probably start looking to move fielder, cano, cc, etc and start rebuilding.

[kab21]

Score one for BYTO.

 

I think I traded all of my top prospects already and I'm not interested in anymore alright old veterans. My team is fully stocked with those.

[username]

Score one for BYTO.

 

I think I traded all of my top prospects already and I'm not interested in anymore alright old veterans. My team is fully stocked with those.

 

upon closer inspection, nobody except tangerine has any prospects! that guy's team is going to be stacked in a couple years.

[username]

hey guys,

 

so Tim told me that the teams leaving are:

 

Williemoes

Winti

Billy Mays Hamilton

 

also, Mac has been MIA for months, so he may need to be replaced. he did this once before though and came back from the dead, so who knows.

 

i tried to encourage tim to pool the players on these teams and allow new owners to draft, but he seemed to be against the idea. i actually think Tangerinen, BMH and Williemoes have really solid teams but it will be tough to find a taker for Winti.

 

i don't read any other parts of this site anymore. that gopherben guy always used to want to join. is he still around?

[biggentleben]

hey guys,

 

so Tim told me that the teams leaving are:

 

Williemoes

Winti

Billy Mays Hamilton

 

also, Mac has been MIA for months, so he may need to be replaced. he did this once before though and came back from the dead, so who knows.

 

i tried to encourage tim to pool the players on these teams and allow new owners to draft, but he seemed to be against the idea. i actually think Tangerinen, BMH and Williemoes have really solid teams but it will be tough to find a taker for Winti.

 

i don't read any other parts of this site anymore. that gopherben guy always used to want to join. is he still around?

 

I got a message about it, but I haven't had a chance to fire off an email quite yet. I'll get that done before the end of the evening.

[username]

I got a message about it, but I haven't had a chance to fire off an email quite yet. I'll get that done before the end of the evening.

 

2 of the teams filled already just fyi

[biggentleben]

2 of the teams filled already just fyi

 

Yeah, I got the list of the available squads, but man are they crap. It'd be a 3-4 year rebuild minimum with either squad. $50 per season would mean $150-200 before I can even be competitive, let alone compete for a championship.

[PseudoSABR]

Yeah, I got the list of the available squads, but man are they crap. It'd be a 3-4 year rebuild minimum with either squad. $50 per season would mean $150-200 before I can even be competitive, let alone compete for a championship.

Give us your monies!

[DaveW]

I will come back in.

[PseudoSABR]

Made a big trade today w Billy Buck, Chris Davis and a 2nd round pick for Mauer, Fister, and Schoop. Thoughts?

[username]

feels like you completely raped him.

 

mauer will have C eligibility this year and will give you some serviceable 1B numbers for a long time. fister should be a nice mid-rotation guy, at worst, in the NL. schoop is a nice lottery ticket.

 

davis is nice to have but im not building a team around the guy. also, if we switch to otteneau, i bet the Ks hurt him even more.

[biggentleben]

I loved that deal for you. I've only made one small deal, but I've received some stuff that's at least close. Everyone wants to dump their 26th guy for one of my 3B, though, so far...that won't exactly make me want to jump forward on a deal. I'm looking for a big prospect package or solid outfielder/pitcher at the MLB level to move either.

[PseudoSABR]

Glad you guys like it as much as I do. Sometimes I like deals so much that I start to feel stupid.

 

I think I got three guys at their lowest value, and they are mostly buy-low for a lot of the wrong reasons. I bet Mauer outproduces Davis (esp. in a Otteneau league, my hasty evaluation). That the Tigers dealt Fister so cheaply must have worked in my favor. Schoop is just gravy as second round minor league picks aren't ever worth as much as we think they might be.

 

That said, I'm heavy at in the MI, C, and even 1B. Make me some offers.

 

Hey, Ben, I didn't know you had actually joined! I think it's great.

[username]

oh man i didn't realize ben was our ben either. that's awesome, welcome to the fun.

 

it looks like you aren't participating in the redraft, which was the right move imo. your team is much better than what it otherwise wouldve came out as after the draft.