Travis Harrison - 2015

[gunnarthor]

Harrison was a Twins supplemental first round pick in 2011 (50th overall) out of a California HS.  At the time, his bat was considered one of the stronger HS bats in the draft although there were questions about his ability to stick at third base.  Last year the Twins moved him off of third and put him in left field for good.

 

He had a solid debut season but a slightly disappointing sophomore campaign (.253/.366/.416 and 125 strike outs).  Going into last season, the concern was that his strike outs would increase as he moved into the pitching friendly Fl St league (A+ ball).  Instead, Harrison did a pretty good job limiting his strike outs - his strike out % fell from 23% to 16% while his walk rates remained fairly similar at about 12%.  But his power dropped off - he only hit 3 HRs and he slugged .365.  

 

But the power can come back.  Harrison will start the season in Chattanooga on a pretty loaded team.  He should be their starting LFer.  At 22, Harrison still has time to develop the power.  If he can keep his strike out and walk rates similar to last year, he's an underrated prospect.  Best case scenario is that he could develop into an everyday LFer with good on-base skills, maybe something like .260/.360/.430.  

 

Fangraphs ranked him the teams #18 prospect.  McDaniel saw a potential bench bat/platoon bat with good make up.  Sickels ranked him the teams #14 prospect.  He gave him a B- grade and likes him as a break out guy "Not scientific, but my intuition is that he will get the home runs back in 2015, maintain the OBP, and take a large step forward."  MLB.com rankes him the teams #18 prospect.  "Harrison has enough bat to be an everyday corner outfielder at the big league level. Now all he has to do is go out and play like it."  They note that he isn't likely to be a great defender in left field.  

 

So this seems like a big year for Harrison, who will be added to the 40 man roster after the season.  I think he has a big breakout season in him.  His plate discipline is a huge plus for him - outside of injuries it's what derails most hitters.  He just needs some at-bats and ideally we'll see the power return.  I think he'll have a big year and make some top 100 lists next season.

[gunnarthor]

I'll update this now even though the AA season has been really screwed up and they've only played 10 games.  

 

Anyhow, Harrison is having a great start to the season, through those ten games.  The 22 year old is putting up a .324/.439/.529 line with 4 doubles and a homer (he hit 3 HR last year).  He's been HBP 3x to go along with his 4 walks.  He's hitting in the 5th spot in the order and leads the team in RBIs (and is 5th in the Southern League).  His 4 doubles are also good enough for second in the Southern League (and leads the team).  

 

So far, so good.  The big question is if he can hit with enough power this year and so far (SSS) he has.  Hopefully, the power continues.

[nytwinsfan]

Just to play Debbie Downer, Harrison's BABIP is currently .455. That being said, that doesn't explain the increased power so far, so there is still good reason to be optimistic.

[gunnarthor]

 

Just to play Debbie Downer, Harrison's BABIP is currently .455. That being said, that doesn't explain the increased power so far, so there is still good reason to be optimistic.

Yeah, his average probably won't hold that high.  He's been around .315ish babip guy and will probably go back to that a bit.  I don't know where to find these numbers but if he is hitting with a little more power this year - maybe some more line drives - we could see his babip go up from last year when he had a bunch of ground outs.

 

But his iso OBP% is about right.  He can beat his avg by about .100+ points so even if he's only hitting .260, he could be a .360 on-base guy.  I don't think that's flukey.  If the power comes, he's a real prospect again.

[gunnarthor]

Figured it's a good time to update it.  The good news is that Harrison's triple slash line continues to remain solid -.280/.389/.430.  His batting average is coming down to where it'll probably stay but he's managed to keep the OBP pretty high.  He continues to lead the Southern League in doubles and his on-base percentage is 11th among hitters with 100 PA.  He also leads the league in HBP.  He's hit two home runs already, compared to 3 all of last year.  

 

B-Ref says he's playing most of his games in RF.  I'm not sure how he is defensively.  Reports have suggested OK to below avg.  We'll see. 

 

At 22, he's still one of the younger players in AA - b-ref counts 24 hitters in the Southern league as 22 or younger.  5 play for Chattanooga.  

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Harrison is still hitting a solid .286/.376/.435 in AA while among the youngest players in the league.  He continues to lead that Southern league in doubles (and actually all of AA) and is 14th in OBP.  (Although Kepler might overtake him in doubles soon). His 44 hits is 16th overall in the league.  Because he's on probably the best minor league team, he scores lots of runs - he's 3rd in AA in runs scored.  

 

So he continues to look like a professional hitter with solid doubles power and good on-base skills.  

[lightfoot789]

Dude can hit

[gunnarthor]

Just another update.  Harrison had a bit of slump and saw his avg and slg dip a bit but his obp has remained steady, which is a pretty good sign.  On the season he is hitting .268/.375/.403 and already matched last year's HR total.  

 

His 18 doubles are one off the SL leader and he's walking about 12% of his at-bats.  And he also leads the league in HBP.  My personal feeling is that hitters that can maintain good on-base percentages are extremely valuable and Harrison has been doing that.  He remains pretty young as well.  

[ashbury]

He remains pretty young as well.  

I dunno. He displays a disturbing trend, dating back to the start of his career, of growing older every single day of the season.

[Shane Wahl]

2015 statistics:

 

343 PA, .236/.347/.360 (.707), 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, 41 walks, 80 strike outs, two steals, and six times caught stealing.

 

The SB/CS number actually makes me laugh. What the hell is he/are they even trying?

 

The lack of power isn't funny, though. All talk about him developing into a power hitter must end.

 

Right now he is a poor man's Chris Parmelee. Of course, he can spend 2016 in AA and work on everything, so it is far from over.