Nolasco to have MRI

[jokin]

 

This could be very true, but if it is, I'd like to find out, because pitchers who don't fare well under pressure don't tend to produce good results when it matters most.

Also, isn't the organization's best pitching coach, who specializes in Meyer's weakest pitch, the change up, with the big club?

With his performance this year, it's becoming increasingly difficult to defend Meyer, but if the MLB product is going to be wretched for a fifth straight year....

 

You've covered all of the elements that make this move a no-brainer.  Neal Allen has an established track record of working with up-and-coming, fast-track pitchers.  And perfecting the change-up is one of the two keys to Meyer's long-term success in the majors.  

 

It's obviously going to be another throw-away season in terms of wins and losses, why waste Allen's valuable coaching time working with at least half a dozen guys who likely won't be around to see 2016 with the Twins?

[tobi0040]

 

The Twins had two opportunities last year.

Pelfrey was injured early. At the time Meyer had 5 starts and walked 3.7 per 9. The Twins went with Deduno. It was a small sample but Cleveland brought up Bauer in a small early season sample and Bauer's long term track record was worse.

They had an opportunity again in early June when it was clear that Deduno wasn't an answer. At that time Meyer had an ERA of 3.30 and a walk per 9 of 4.0. Again they passed him up for someone like Darnell or Johnson.

I don't see how anyone can give the Twins a pass on this. It is too hard to find guys that throw 100+. He is going to struggle. Bauer did. Clevelands patience with his struggle at the major league level is paying off.

There is no reason the Twins can't exercise that same patience on a team that was and is going nowhere.

What do they have to lose? He is old enough. He has a lot of innings in AA and AAA. It is time.

 

I think the Twins had a couple of moving pieces here and I don't think this is an apples to apples comparison.

 

Bauer was a top 10 prospect.  At 21 he already had 150 IP at AA and AAA, as well as 16 IP at the major league level.  He had this time under his belt with another organization prior to coming to the Indians. 

 

Last May, Meyer had exactly 70 innings under his belt at AA, in which he was shut down with a shoulder injury and 4-6 starts under his belt, or about 25 innings at AAA.   So when you compare the two, they had vastly different experiences.  In addition, Meyer was on a pitch count.

 

The other factor is service time. I personally believe the Twins know they will only have Meyer for five or six years and they hope that they get that time with a good pitcher, preferrably on a team that is trending up.  It looks like he is arb-eligible as early as next season and he has an ERA plus of 87. 

 

Had the Twins brought up Meyer last May, they would have wasted a year of service time on a pitcher who can only throw 80 pitches a game and is struggling through control.  In addition, they would have been wasting that control on a 90 loss team.  This year would be his second year of control and he clearly has not worked through the issues.  I have wanted the guy as bad as the next guy, but right now he can't hit the broad side of a barn, so I would rather that happen in AAA with his clock at zero.  If he provides any control whatsoever, bring him up. 

 

I was very disgruntled last year about Meyer, but I am coming around that maybe it wasn't the right time.  I know that this is a very unpopular viewpoint, but I would guess that the 2019 or 2020 versions of yourself may appreciate the decision and disagree with the 2015 versions.

[Mike Sixel]

Service time? For a 25 year old? No, that is not the issue.

[tobi0040]

 

Service time? For a 25 year old? No, that is not the issue.

 

You don't think the Twins factored it in?  Here is what I think was running through the Twins minds:

 

-He was on a pitch count

 

-He struggled with control

 

-Scott Boras is his agent

 

-He was shut down the prior year due to a shoulder injury, for all we know it could come back (which it did)

 

-We have the potential to be a really good team in the 2016-2021 window

 

-We were going to lose 90 games

 

With all of those factors, I think we are kidding ourselves to think that service time was not a factor and wasting last year given those factors did not make sense for the Twins.  Whether you agree or disagree with them, it was a factor.

[jokin]

 

 

 

The other factor is service time. I personally believe the Twins know they will only have Meyer for five or six years and they hope that they get that time with a good pitcher, preferrably on a team that is trending up.  It looks like he is arb-eligible as early as next season and he has an ERA plus of 87. 

 

Had the Twins brought up Meyer last May, they would have wasted a year of service time on a pitcher who can only throw 80 pitches a game and is struggling through control.  In addition, they would have been wasting that control on a 90 loss team.  This year would be his second year of control and he clearly has not worked through the issues. 

 

 

 

Service time? For a 25 year old? No, that is not the issue.

 

It shouldn't be an issue, but it likely is in the Twins way of thinking.... which shows how backward the Twins way of thinking is regarding position players vs. hard-throwing pitchers and peak physical years... 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the point about Neil Allen being the org's best pitching coach is a great one.

 

Who is best suited to be supervising and managing the development of Meyer and May?

 

I don't think the time at AAA is meant to build confidence - I think it's more that the Twins know that with the control issues that Alex Meyer is displaying, he'll get eaten alive in the majors, and they are trying to preserve his confidence.

 

I got to see Trevor May pitch in person at TF last year, and it was really apparent (from a small sample, of course) that he pitches on emotion - if he walked a guy, he'd stomp around, pound his mitt and shout into it. He'd "pitch angry" to the next guy, and it would alter his delivery. It worked in his favor sometimes, but other times it would get him in trouble. His fastball might be a little faster to the next guy, but less movement, and his secondary pitches would be a little less focused. I can't speak to the thought process of the front office, but I could believe that he's being asked to work on managing that in AAA.

[jokin]

The Rays and the Marlins have primarily been bringing up their hard-throwers on a fast-track basis.  If they have to deal them away before the 6th year of control due to financial reasons, so be it.  They are banking on capturing the peak physical years of their prospects in the major leagues, and maximizing their value in trade.  In the meantime, they have their best possible pitchers in the rotations- both talent- and upside-wise.

[jokin]

 

I think the point about Neil Allen being the org's best pitching coach is a great one.

 

Who is best suited to be supervising and managing the development of Meyer and May?

 

I don't think the time at AAA is meant to build confidence - I think it's more that the Twins know that with the control issues that Alex Meyer is displaying, he'll get eaten alive in the majors, and they are trying to preserve his confidence.

 

I got to see Trevor May pitch in person at TF last year, and it was really apparent (from a small sample, of course) that he pitches on emotion - if he walked a guy, he'd stomp around, pound his mitt and shout into it. He'd "pitch angry" to the next guy, and it would alter his delivery. It worked in his favor sometimes, but other times it would get him in trouble. His fastball might be a little faster to the next guy, but less movement, and his secondary pitches would be a little less focused. I can't speak to the thought process of the front office, but I could believe that he's being asked to work on managing that in AAA.

 

All this shows is that the Twins are also vastly falling short relative to the league with their top prospects on the developmental curve.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You don't think the Twins factored it in?  Here is what I think was running through the Twins minds:

 

-He was on a pitch count

 

-He struggled with control

 

-Scott Boras is his agent

 

-He was shut down the prior year due to a shoulder injury, for all we know it could come back (which it did)

 

-We have the potential to be a really good team in the 2016-2021 window

 

-We were going to lose 90 games

 

With all of those factors, I think we are kidding ourselves to think that service time was not a factor and wasting last year given those factors did not make sense for the Twins.  Whether you agree or disagree with them, it was a factor.

 

By this logic, no young guy is ever brought up until the team is good.....how does the team, then, get good? 

[tobi0040]

 

It shouldn't be an issue, but it likely is in the Twins way of thinking.... which shows how backward the Twins way of thinking is regarding position players vs. hard-throwing pitchers and peak physical years... 

 

Here are the only pitches I could find on you tube from spring training.  Four pitches, nowhwere near the strike zone.  I watched his entire start on TV. He routinely missed the glove on his fastball, by over a foot on several occasions.  Whether this is a peak physical year or not, he has some things to work through.  A bare minimum should be having a general idea of where the ball is going.

 

The third link is to an interview after the appearance. In which Meyer says "I am really searching right now, something is going on mechanically".  "It will come but something is going on right now". 

 

Is he in the right frame of mind here to bring up to the big leagues?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRub0tpyB_w

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DDlGDdThSo

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNdOSJIWNJE

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

By this logic, no young guy is ever brought up until the team is good.....how does the team, then, get good? 

 

That was one of six factors. Not a hard and fast rule.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

All this shows is that the Twins are also vastly falling short relative to the league with their top prospects on the developmental curve.

 

I agree with that.

 

I think both Twins fans and the Twins front office agree that the Twins are not going to win significantly more games in 2015 with Meyer and May in the rotation.

 

But the Twins think some combo of Meyer, May, and the current rotation will win more in 2016 if they are in AAA as of today.

 

I think the general consensus among fans is that the Twins aren't gaining anything by paying more money to Pelfrey, Stauffer, and the long list of 30+ 35+ year old re-treads in the last 4 years. That putting Meyer and May in the MLB rotation now is going to make the team better in the future.

[tobi0040]

 

I agree with that.

 

I think both Twins fans and the Twins front office agree that the Twins are not going to win significantly more games in 2015 with Meyer and May in the rotation.

 

But the Twins think some combo of Meyer, May, and the current rotation will win more in 2016 if they are in AAA as of today.

 

I think the general consensus among fans is that the Twins aren't gaining anything by paying more money to Pelfrey, Stauffer, and the long list of 30+ 35+ year old re-treads in the last 4 years. That putting Meyer and May in the MLB rotation now is going to make the team better in the future.

 

I think that is a good summary.

 

We have been terrible for four years. We keep hearing about all this talent and are clamoring to see it.  I get it.  I really do.

 

It is just hard for me to see Meyer this spring, then see his line from yesterday (5 IP, 6 BB, 3K).  To see him admit he doens't know what is going on, he has to figure it out, he is searching, etc.....and then conclude he should be promoted and handed the ball for a major league start. 

 

If the Twins view the best thing for his development as working with Neil Allen, then maybe he should be put in the pen and given an inning here or there in meaningless games. But I don't know how the Twins view Allen versus the AAA pitching coach.  In looking up the AAA pitching coach, he was the bullpen coach with the Cardinals from 2000 to 2010.

[jimmer]

 

You don't think the Twins factored it in?  Here is what I think was running through the Twins minds:

 

-He was on a pitch count

 

-He struggled with control

 

-Scott Boras is his agent

 

-He was shut down the prior year due to a shoulder injury, for all we know it could come back (which it did)

 

-We have the potential to be a really good team in the 2016-2021 window

 

-We were going to lose 90 games

 

With all of those factors, I think we are kidding ourselves to think that service time was not a factor and wasting last year given those factors did not make sense for the Twins.  Whether you agree or disagree with them, it was a factor.

We have the potential to be a really good team in 2016-2021 window?  I think 2016 is pretty unrealistic at this point, don't you?  Especially considering the type of season we are likely to have this year? I think it's unrealistic that the light is just going to turn on this team as these players are just starting their adjustment to the majors.This idea that we should just keep delaying our guys until we are going to be real good confounds me because we need these news guys in order to, hopefully, be really good.

[jokin]

 

Here are the only pitches I could find on you tube from spring training.  Four pitches, nowhwere near the strike zone.  I watched his entire start on TV. He routinely missed the glove on his fastball, by over a foot on several occasions.  Whether this is a peak physical year or not, he has some things to work through.  A bare minimum should be having a general idea of where the ball is going.

 

The third link is to an interview after the appearance. In which Meyer says "I am really searching right now, something is going on mechanically".  "It will come but something is going on right now". 

 

Is he in the right frame of mind here to bring up to the big leagues?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRub0tpyB_w

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DDlGDdThSo

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNdOSJIWNJE

 

This is an indictment on the Twins as much as Meyer.  Whether they've been babying him or have failed to come up with a mechanics-self-adjustment regimen, or some combination of the two, he was on a roll for much of last season in AAA.

 

The first hints emerged in Spring Training that the Twins are becoming frustrated with Meyer and some character failure on his part in his lack of killer instinct- which is wholly ironic, because they've had two years to work with him now, and appear for all intents and purposes, to have treated him like Little Lord Fauntleroy instead of throwing him into the fire when he was so dominant in 2014.

[jorgenswest]

Here are the only pitches I could find on you tube from spring training.  Four pitches, nowhwere near the strike zone.  I watched his entire start on TV. He routinely missed the glove on his fastball, by over a foot on several occasions.  Whether this is a peak physical year or not, he has some things to work through.  A bare minimum should be having a general idea of where the ball is going.

 

The third link is to an interview after the appearance. In which Meyer says "I am really searching right now, something is going on mechanically".  "It will come but something is going on right now". 

 

Is he in the right frame of mind here to bring up to the big leagues?

 

 

 

The Twins have really messed him up.

 

His walk per 9 when they acquired him was 3.1.

 

Year 1 with the Twins 3.7.

 

Year 2 4.4. In year 2 his walk rate became worse as the season progressed. The more they tried to "fix" him, the more mixed up he became.

 

Year 3?

 

He deserves to be traded to an organization that has a clue about developing pitching.

 

Some team would put him in the majors and let him work out (or not). It should be clear that the longer he stays in AAA the further he gets from being "ready".

[tobi0040]

 

We have the potential to be a really good team in 2016-2021 window?  I think 2016 is pretty unrealistic at this point, don't you?  Especially considering the type of season we are likely to have this year? I think it's unrealistic that the light is just going to turn on this team as these players are just starting their adjustment to the majors.This idea that we should just keep delaying our guys until we are going to be real good confounds me because we need these news guys in order to, hopefully, be really good.

 

I believe we can be a good team in 2016. Absolutely.

 

Here are the main issues:

 

Outfield defense - I believe Buxton and Rosario will be in the OF by the end of the year.  That turns to at least an average group, likely above average

 

The rotation - I think May or Meyer will have broken through in June (hopefully both).  One start aside, I think Gibson will have a good year.  Ervin will be back around then.  Berrios will be here next year.  Hopefully no Pelfrey, Milone, etc.

 

The lineup - I am not going to pack up after 3 games, against pretty good pitching mind you.  I think we start the year with league average offense, then add Buxton and Sano to that team. 

 

[tobi0040]

The Twins have really messed him up.

 

His walk per 9 when they acquired him was 3.1.

 

Year 1 with the Twins 3.7.

 

Year 2 4.4. In year 2 his walk rate became worse as the season progressed. The more they tried to "fix" him, the more mixed up he became.

 

Year 3?

 

He deserves to be traded to an organization that has a clue about developing pitching.

 

Some team would put him in the majors and let him work out (or not). It should be clear that the longer he stays in AAA the further he gets from being "ready".

 

In college, from 2009 to 2011 his BB rates were 6.7, 6.3, and 4.3. You are using "before we aquired him" period as 130 innings in A ball in between college and the Twins. 

[jorgenswest]

In college, from 2009 to 2011 his BB rates were 6.7, 6.3, and 4.3. You are using "before we aquired him" period as 130 innings in A ball in between college and the Twins.

 

We are miles apart on our perception of the Twins role and plan in developing Meyer. You counter any attempt at responsibility on the Twin part. think we just leave it be. I can't be convinced that the Twins have done a good job with Meyer and you can't be convinced that they have done a poor job with him. I hope you are right and the Twins know what they are doing. Meyer couldn't be in better hands.

[jimmer]

 

I believe we can be a good team in 2016. Absolutely.

 

Here are the main issues:

 

Outfield defense - I believe Buxton and Rosario will be in the OF by the end of the year.  That turns to at least an average group, likely above average

 

The rotation - I think May or Meyer will have broken through in June (hopefully both).  One start aside, I think Gibson will have a good year.  Ervin will be back around then.  Berrios will be here next year.  Hopefully no Pelfrey, Milone, etc.

 

The lineup - I am not going to pack up after 3 games, against pretty good pitching mind you.  I think we start the year with league average offense, then add Buxton and Sano to that team. 

Yeah, I think 2016 is a pipe dream.  In order for us to be really good in 2016 in the way you've detailed it, we need to expect all of them (you mentioned SIX prospects, FIVE of which haven't even seen the majors yet) to adjust very quickly and perform very well right away. Your post seems to be discarding the high failure rate for prospects and how, for most players, it takes a year or two to get adjusted and start being the players they can be.  If even half of these six guys you mentioned end up having good careers it'd be amazing. It'd be miraculous if more ended up having good careers AND they all performed really well in their first full year.

[Mike Sixel]

So, from 90 losses to really good in 1 year? That's what you think?

[jokin]

 

We are miles apart on our perception of the Twins role and plan in developing Meyer. You counter any attempt at responsibility on the Twin part. think we just leave it be. I can't be convinced that the Twins have done a good job with Meyer and you can't be convinced that they have done a poor job with him. I hope you are right and the Twins know what they are doing. Meyer couldn't be in better hands.

 

You forgot the /sarc tag....

 

What I fear most is a likely outcome in a Liriano/Worley scenario for Meyer some day, only, obviously writ much larger.

[tobi0040]

 

We are miles apart on our perception of the Twins role and plan in developing Meyer. You counter any attempt at responsibility on the Twin part. think we just leave it be. I can't be convinced that the Twins have done a good job with Meyer and you can't be convinced that they have done a poor job with him. I hope you are right and the Twins know what they are doing. Meyer couldn't be in better hands.

 

Your walk rate "before the Twins" seemed to either cherry pick 130 innings on purpose or not think through the big picture.  I was just pointing out that command was an issue before he walked in the door here. Saying "we ruined him" and he alluding to good or even average command before the Twins and bad command with the Twins is not accurate.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

So, from 90 losses to really good in 1 year? That's what you think?

 

I don't neccesarily think we are going to lose 90 this year, if we do it will be closer to 88-90 than it has been in the last four years (mid 90's).   From 88 losses to a .500 team is a total of 6 wins.  So I think we can be above .500 and in contention in 2016. 

[jokin]

 

Yeah, I think 2016 is a pipe dream.  In order for us to be really good in 2016 in the way you've detailed it, we need to expect all of them (you mentioned SIX rookies, FIVE of which haven't even seen the majors yet) to adjust very quickly and perform very well right away. Your post seems to be discarding the high failure rate for prospects and how, for most players, it takes a year or two to get adjusted and start being the players they can be.  If even half of these six guys you mentioned end up having good careers it'd be amazing. It'd be miraculous if more ended up having good careers AND they all performed really well in their first full year.

 

So, from 90 losses to really good in 1 year? That's what you think?

 

 

Yeah, at the rate the Twins are moving up the prospects (meanwhile clogging the system with both expensive and inexpensive mediocrities in order to put a major league product on the field and/or "evaluate" their prospective continued usefulness...),  and including the prime prospects' major league adjustment phase,  I gotta think that 2018 is more realistic- -  and that's merely to be considered a contender, not "really good".

[tobi0040]

 

 

Yeah, at the rate the Twins are moving up the prospects (meanwhile clogging the system with both expensive and inexpensive mediocrities in order to put a major league product on the field and/or "evaluate" their prospective continued usefulness...),  and including the prime prospects' major league adjustment phase,  I gotta think that 2018 is more realistic- -  and that's merely to be considered a contender, not "really good".

 

Can we expand on this notion that the Twins are slow to move their prospects?  Outside of Meyer, who do you feel the Twins have delayed?

 

At best, you have one guy on the too slow side (Meyer) and another on the too fast side (Hicks).  This gets thrown around all the time here.  I am just not sure what compelling evidence exists.  I know we have not moved up a series of 20 year olds lately, but think that relates to not having 20 year old studs in the system versus being slow to promote them.   From the 2005 to 2011 time period, we were conistentely drafting in the 20-30 range, drafting high school players, and our system overall was ranked in the lower half.   When we started to get talent these guys were really young, like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios.  We got them as 16, 18, and 18 year olds who will likely all debut at 21 or 22.

[jokin]

 

I don't neccesarily think we are going to lose 90 this year, if we do it will be closer to 88-90 than it has been in the last four years (mid 90's).   From 88 losses to a .500 team is a total of 6 wins.  So I think we can be above .500 and in contention in 2016. 

 

Actually, it would be 7 wins, and Vegas and most pundits see the Twins going backwards in wins this year, not forward.  Merely "above .500" would be fringe contention, kind of like the role the White Sox hope to attain this season (with two and a half Ace level pitchers and one potential Ace about to get called up)- and if the Twins finish around 70 wins this year, you would be asking for an 11 game improvement in 2016, just to reach .500.  

 

IMO-  you're expecting too many holes to be successfully plugged and too many prospects that would have to hit the ground running in 2016 to be optimistic enough to think the Twins can compete next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Which is why the prospects should be up in 2 weeks.....let's get the show running.....and finally start the rebuild, not the "hole plugging because we either think this team can compete, or we won't do a full rebuild".

[jokin]

 

   From the 2005 to 2011 time period, we were conistentely drafting in the 20-30 range, drafting high school players, and our system overall was ranked in the lower half.   When we started to get talent these guys were really young, like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios.  We got them as 16, 18, and 18 year olds who will likely all debut at 21 or 22.

 

And yet the Cardinals and Red Sox regularly finished as high or higher in the standings and kept refilling their coffers with back-end draft picks ready to play in their early 20s.

 

We don't yet know about Sano and Buxton, who both turn 22 this year and haven't demonstrated anything close to mastery at AA yet.  And we know how much more deliberative the Twins are on promoting prime pitching prospects- mid 2016, when Berrios will already be 22 seems hopefully optimistic.

 

 

[John Kelsey]

May is coming up. 

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/04/10/twinsights-trevor-may-set-to-join-twins-rotation/