Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Trevor May

[ashbury]

I know this turned a bit silly

OK, so you're saying they come out with about the same ERA over a season?  If I have a bad team I take the up and down guy, because he'll help me get closer to .500 and also might bring in some fans. 

 

If I have a good team, the up and down guy might cost me a pennant.

[Dantes929]

and a FIP of 4.69 which would rank him lower than Nolasco, Gibson, Correia, Hughes. 

I just can't help but be a little skeptical of a guy that has a FIP that is better than his ERA every year and has a .6 run difference for his career,    Was LA's defense that bad?    Just seems like there is a little more art to pitching than numbers can tell us.    I felt our infield defense was pretty good last year.   I have come to value outfield defense a lot more over the last decade than I used to but was our outfield defense really worth an extra run per 9?    Ugh.   Can't wait for Buxton.

[USAFChief]

I know this turned a bit silly, but underlying the silliness is a serious question.... Would you rather have a guy that gives you an ok chance every time he takes the mound or a guy like Kyle Gibson, who is lights out in 45% of his starts (0-1ER, 7+ IP), so-so in 20% of his starts (2-4ER, 6+ IP), and bad in 35% of his starts (5+ ER)

 

Edited to add:

 

And all this with a truly terrible defense

It is an interesting question.

 

My guess is, in the short term, you would end up about even with either pitcher. But my preference would be the guy who is lights out part of the time. In the long term, He might become more consistent. The other guy already is consistent, and is probably as good as he'll ever get.

[tobi0040]

I have long thought about this as well.  Trevor May in the minors has had seasons like this.  In 2013 he had a 4.50 ERA or so, ton of K's, lots of BB's.  But he had 26 ER in 4 starts, a few of them 2-3 innings each (high BB starts too).  He made 27 starts I think that year. 

 

So you are going to lose for sure, 4 of the 27 starts.  But now you have a guy giving you a chance to win in the other 23.  He had several games with 0, 1, or 2 ER. 

Edited February 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[Kwak]

Another aspect to consider--your favorite team makes the playoffs.  The 3 runs in 7 innings will often be a losing effort, but the 1 run in 8 will carry your team through.  If this scenario sounds familar--it should!  Pretty good will generally win a weak division--but falls in the playoffs.  World Series winning seasons (even losses) are remembered for decades but division championships are soon forgotten (and rightly so).

[DocBauer]

Gibson ran hot and cold, not surprising for a rookie. But his hot was just that, and not lukewarm. As I've said before, it's easy to say someone looks good when they are "on". That's true for all of us. But there's a difference between a good performance, and showing the talent and results many times over. A little more consistency, a little more growth and development, coupled with size, youth and overall potential, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Gibson becomes our #2 SP. Possibly as early as this season.

[DocBauer]

May was one of my top picks to click and guys to watch going in to last season. He didn't disappoint. And he is my early favorite to win the 5th SP job out of spring. Nothing against Milone, and I understand his neck issue, and I'll even disregard reports about decreasing velocity. This still a transitioning team situation, from the new manager and coaching staff, to the on the field and rising young players. May: A) younger better velocity and overall arm talent C) cheaper D) much higher ceiling E) probably a much higher floor as well F) under longer team control G) is coming off perhaps his best, most positive season yet showing growth and improvement.

 

Milone is LH and has more ML innings. Is that a reason to commit to him over May? Not in my book.

[amjgt]

OK, so you're saying they come out with about the same ERA over a season?  If I have a bad team I take the up and down guy, because he'll help me get closer to .500 and also might bring in some fans. 

 

If I have a good team, the up and down guy might cost me a pennant.

 

In the original two scenarios, it was the exact same ERA (3.86)