Twinkie Town interview with Rob Antony

[Seth Stohs]

I think there's a lot of HOPING in there, which isn't a substitute for knowing you had a good rotation.  Even if the young guys come in (and I use that word young loosely when talking about Meyer), its gonna take time for them to adjust like it does for most (not all).

 

True and yet, I'm OK with that. For the first time in 3-4 years, there is hope. Yes, it's going to take 5-6-7 things to go really well for the Twins to get to .500, but they have players and the players we've been waiting on are getting pretty close. I'm excited for spring training and the season to get going. I thought they were a much more interesting, exciting team in 2014 than the previous two seasons, and I think 2015 can be even better. 

 

Obviously we'll see what happens, but I think they have the ability to be much improved in 2015.

[jimmer]

You make a good point, but maybe 2015 is a good year for a lot of the younger players to get their feet wet, assuming that the Twins are not contending.

Yes, it's a great year for feet to get wet, absolutely.  The specific post of mine you quoted is in reference to just the pitching staff (and why I still think the overall performance of the rotation will still be bad in that regard) but yeah overall,team-wide, it's a great year to get feet wet.  Unfortunately, a couple signings will delay that for at least. 

[Platoon]

Yes, but they also said that along with that, the team has few that are projected high,

 

And therein still lies the Twins problem. Not real BAD players, but not real GOOD players!

[youngpadawan]

His joke about Jason Reed and the NFL.... was he confusing "Jason" with "Jordan" from Washington, or "Jake" the former Viking, or am I missing something?

[lightfoot789]

I like Antony a lot. Good guy. He let me do a Q&A with him back in 2010 when we were down in Florida.

 

In our discussion, at that time he said he preferred using RBI over slugging percentage to gauge a player's success. His explanation to me was:

 

"Because you win with runs," he said.  "And I want that guy because you also have the correlation with a better batting average with runner in scoring position - he's the guy that can step-up, the guy you want at the plate."

 

That's why I think the Twins Front Office secretly likes AB Walker.  Ryan said it recently.  Steil said it before.  Mauer and Dougie Baseball both beleive in him.  He produces RBIs and Runs.  He somehow scores himself even when the next guy on his team has difficulty driving in runs.  When you can damn near lead your team in Runs Scored and RBI, you have a chance to be special.  Hell, I think Walker did a poor job last year at driving in runs and still had 95.  He left way too many players on base last year compared to 2013.  As he improves his contact and gets those ground out RBIs and Sac Flies, he will be off the chart in terms of RBI.  Something the Twins have not had in decades.  I think he can make contact in those situations if he is directed to do so.  Every team needs a gamechanger somewhere in their line up.  The more the better obviously.

[jimmer]

All that is true about RBI being a count stat and let's just use OBP or OPS, until, it's the top of 8 in Yankee Stadium, tie game, and you have a guy who walked against Betances on first base.  You need that run to score.  Period.  When I watch the Twins, I say to myself:  "Who is going to get a clutch hit, on the road, to beat a good team?"  That's not necessarily counting RBIs, it's about knowing the moment in the game and seeing who can make it happen.  Great teams get contributions from everyone.  The Twins, we need it from someone.

Even then you can use 'clutch stats' or slash lines with RISP.  

 

And while OBP and OPS have decent value in evaluation as rough stats, there are stats better to gauge offense. OPS doesn't really value OBP enough.  I like wRC+.

[Steve Lein]

That's why I think the Twins Front Office secretly likes AB Walker.  Ryan said it recently.  Steil said it before.  Mauer and Dougie Baseball both beleive in him.  He produces RBIs and Runs.  He somehow scores himself even when the next guy on his team has difficulty driving in runs.  When you can damn near lead your team in Runs Scored and RBI, you have a chance to be special.  Hell, I think Walker did a poor job last year at driving in runs and still had 95.  He left way too many players on base last year compared to 2013.  As he improves his contact and gets those ground out RBIs and Sac Flies, he will be off the chart in terms of RBI.  Something the Twins have not had in decades.  I think he can make contact in those situations if he is directed to do so.  Every team needs a gamechanger somewhere in their line up.  The more the better obviously.

 

Walker scored a lot of runs because of the HR's. Harrison had 3 HR's, yet scored more runs than Walker due to the drastic difference in on-base percentage and number of balls he put in play.

 

You are absolutely right though, improvement in contact could make him a crazy good RBI producer

 

His joke about Jason Reed and the NFL.... was he confusing "Jason" with "Jordan" from Washington, or "Jake" the former Viking, or am I missing something?

 

Was talking about pitcher Jake Reed, and thus referencing the former Viking. q; )

.

[youngpadawan]

Thanks, his name is Jake Reed not Jason. That was where I was confused!

[lightfoot789]

Walker scored a lot of runs because of the HR's. Harrison had 3 HR's, yet scored more runs than Walker due to the drastic difference in on-base percentage and number of balls he put in play.

 

You are absolutely right though, improvement in contact could make him a crazy good RBI producer

The funny part about dismissing home runs is that those are hits too. If a player hit 0 HRs and 25 triples and scored as much as Walker, the world would be going crazy. It is more reasonable for a player to continue to hit HRs as he moves up rather than think he will continue to hit triples. Hitting HRs is a skill set. Getting on base is a skill set too, but doesn't equate to runs scored. You need a team of OBP guys to make those runs matter. Hopefully Walker can learn to do both.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree with him...looking backward. I'd rather have had the RBI. Same way, looking backward, Id rather have W's from a starter than ERA or FIP or any other stat.

 

RBI equal runs. W's equal, well, W's.

 

The question is, which is a better tool to guesstimate the future.

 

I honestly don't know, but I do believe the answer isn't as clear as proponents of either measure sometimes proclaim.

Except that the question posed to Antony wasn't about looking backward (which would be a pointless question anyway, akin to asking "Which team would you have rather had yesterday? The one that scored more runs, obviously.")

 

Here is the context of the Antony RBI comment:

 

 

 

I created a hypothetical scenario asking that if Antony were going to sign a free agent, would he go after the guy with a higher RBI total or slugging percentage?

 

Antony replied that he would prefer the player with the higher RBI total.

I don't know about you, but I am imagining Rob Antony informing Bill Smith in November 2007: "Delmon Young had 93 RBI last year -- as a rookie!"

 

Never mind that Young's ISO that year was lower than the Twins' Lew Ford, Garrett Jones, Jeff Cirillo, and the rotting shell of Rondell White.  And worse than his Rays teammates Brendan Harris, Dioner Navarro, and Akinori Iwamura.  Even Young's AAA ISO was notably worse than that of Garrett Jones.

 

And since that point according to B-Ref, Young has produced 1 batting run above average versus Jones' 35, despite having more PA.  (Young does have 5% more RBIs per PA, though!)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or maybe Antony counseled Smith after 2010: "J.J. Hardy only had 38 RBI last year, I think we can safely dump him to bring in the speed that Gardenhire wants."

 

Or at the trading deadline 2010: "Saves mean your team won, and Matt Capps has more career saves and 2010 saves than our entire bullpen combined!"

[jimmer]

Or maybe Antony counseled Smith after 2010: "J.J. Hardy only had 38 RBI last year, I think we can safely dump him to bring in the speed that Gardenhire wants."

 

Or at the trading deadline 2010: "Saves mean your team won, and Matt Capps has more career saves and 2010 saves than our entire bullpen combined!"

That's funny!  But Smith said Gardy pushed for Hardy to be gone because he wanted speed at the shortstop position. Gardy said before Hardy was traded that Casilla would compete with Hardy for the shortstop job because he liked his athleticism.  So Hardy got traded, and Casilla took shortstop and yeah, that didn't work out.

 

And if I remember correctly Gardy pushed for a 'real closer' too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's funny!  But Smith said Gardy pushed for Hardy to be gone because he wanted speed at the shortstop position. Gardy said before Hardy was traded that Casilla would compete with Hardy for the shortstop job because he liked his athleticism.  So Hardy got traded, and Casilla took shortstop and yeah, that didn't work out.

 

And if I remember correctly Gardy pushed for a 'real closer' too.

Oh, I remember too.  I just meant that the evidence suggests Antony was not a counter-balancing voice of reason against Gardy's sub-optimal preferences.  Delmon might have been one of those too (if Gardy asked for a RH "run producer" to replace Hunter).

[jimmer]

Oh, I remember too.  I just meant that the evidence suggests Antony was not a counter-balancing voice of reason against Gardy's sub-optimal preferences.  Delmon might have been one of those too (if Gardy asked for a RH "run producer" to replace Hunter).

yeah, your post was very funny, I cracked up

[JB_Iowa]

That's funny!  But Smith said Gardy pushed for Hardy to be gone because he wanted speed at the shortstop position. Gardy said before Hardy was traded that Casilla would compete with Hardy for the shortstop job because he liked his athleticism.  So Hardy got traded, and Casilla took shortstop and yeah, that didn't work out.

 

Ah, how quickly we forget.

 

The Twins didn't trade Hardy until after they won the bid on Nishioka.

 

Lexi played the position by default.

 

Not that Nishi worked out either. 

[jimmer]

Ah, how quickly we forget.

 

The Twins didn't trade Hardy until after they won the bid on Nishioka.

 

Lexi played the position by default.

 

Not that Nishi worked out either. 

What exactly did I miss?  Gardy did say he was going to let Casilla battle for the shortstop job before Hardy was ever traded. Nishi did come in but even before he got to the team there was talk of him playing 2B because they didn't think he had the arm for a shortstop.  He did start the season at 2B and then broke his leg.

[JB_Iowa]

What exactly did I miss?  Gardy did say he was going to let Casilla battle for the shortstop job before Hardy was ever traded. Nishi did come in but even before he got to the team there was talk of him playing 2B because they didn't think he had the arm for a shortstop.  He did start the season at 2B and then broke his leg.

 

I didn't mean to say that you missed anything.  I just don't think any reference to that time frame is complete without a mention of our good friend Nishi.  He was part of the puzzle and while Smith was ultimately responsible for his signing, I'm still puzzed by how they whiffed so badly on him.

[Paul Pleiss]

Great articles. Great community at Twinkie Town.

[jimmer]

I didn't mean to say that you missed anything.  I just don't think any reference to that time frame is complete without a mention of our good friend Nishi.  He was part of the puzzle and while Smith was ultimately responsible for his signing, I'm still puzzed by how they whiffed so badly on him.

who is the scout and/or front office person that recommended him?  Hasn't there been a story on that?