Article: Market Inefficiency: Creativity Needed

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Here are the free agents for 2015 (this will be a smaller list by the time free agents are available for the Twins to sign, players may be re-signed or have contract extensions prior to becoming a free agent.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/

Second Basemen

Emilio Bonifacio

Alexi Casilla

Mark Ellis

Rafael Furcal

Chris Getz

Kelly Johnson

Nick Punto *

Brian Roberts

Ramon Santiago

Rickie Weeks *

Ben Zobrist *

Shortstops

Mike Aviles *

Asdrubal Cabrera

Yunel Escobar *

Alex Gonzalez

J.J. Hardy

Jed Lowrie

John McDonald

Hiroyuki Nakajima *

Jimmy Rollins *

(I'll add Stephen Drew here, assuming he signed a one-year deal)

Third Basemen

Wilson Betemit

Alberto Callaspo

Eric Chavez

Jack Hannahan *

Chase Headley

Casey McGehee

Donnie Murphy

Nick Punto *

Aramis Ramirez *

Hanley Ramirez

Pablo Sandoval

Ty Wigginton

Kevin Youkilis

(* – player whose current contract includes 2015 option.)

 

Do any of these guys look like the answer long term?

 

I don't think the free agent route will solve the problem, maybe the Twins could shell out a big contract for Hanley Ramirez (past his prime years?)? Or Ben Zobrist, who is not primarily a Short Stop, but seems to play there enough to be worth a look? I think Jed Lowrie is worth considering too.

 

Ultimately, though, it's more likely that the Twins will roll the dice with developing an internal option.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3506

 

 

 

I guess most players in the low minors will fit this limit.

 

For some reason, I always thought the no trade until June thing only applied the free agents who switched teams, but I could well be wrong. Similarly, I know there used to be some extra trade protection for guys on multi-year deals too but I think that went away.

[Ctwink]

I've always thought the Twins should take flyer on Drew and then if the roof caves in, flip him before July 31. Now that the season has turned up rosier than than some of the most positive projections (with much of the starting rotation acting like blind fools), wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity? Give him a one year contract with a mutually approved option year (or years) and sign him up. Although you lose a pick (even if you couldn't work out the "magic" with Boston that's been discussed above), you've instilled the fans with a little of "Hey, the team is doing something to build on this success" optimism which would certainly be worth more at the gate that one draft pick. Then when reality sets in, you trade him and try to (further) recoup the 2nd rounder that you lost. Seems like win/win to me...

[Mike Sixel]

One market ineffiicency is to pay for the highest ranked non-US prospects you can, and to overpay for a year to get more of them. You know, like Sano......but that's not their plan either. Neither is trading prospects (or a 2nd round pick, that isn't likely to ever do much if anything at the MLB level) for a proven player. Not sure how to get out of this pickle, actually.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One market ineffiicency is to pay for the highest ranked non-US prospects you can, and to overpay for a year to get more of them. You know, like Sano......but that's not their plan either.

 

Instead, they're taking risks on signing more second-tier guys. It's not a bad strategy, all considering. It landed them guys like Lewis Thorpe.

 

Overall, I find it pretty hard to criticize the Twins' international activity over the past few years. Do I agree with every decision? No, not necessarily... but the Twins' strategy looks to be fundamentally solid.

[Mike Sixel]

I think that's fair, Brock. It wouldn't be my approach, but it is their approach. We'll know if it works in about 4-7 years.

[Steven Buhr]

Put me in the group that was on-board with signing Drew during the offseason, but sees no chance of it now. If you want him now, you have to sweeten the deal enough that he (and his agent) are willing to give up the bidding process that's almost certainly going to happen in June. That doesn't seem wise because it would likely involve more years and things like no-trade rights.

 

At this point, Drew's best bet is to simply wait another month and let any team with a need for him bid his price up. It seems like he and Boras overplayed their hand by not taking the QO, but I won't be at all surprised to see someone more than make up the money he lost once there is no longer draft pick compensation involved.