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Twins Trade Targets (Part 4): Big Bats


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Just one month ago, the thought of adding a bat to the Twins’ lineup didn’t make much sense. But after some of their best players were injured, the team’s lineup needs reinforcements. On paper, the middle infield and third base positions have depth. Willi Castro’s flexibility and Rocco Baldelli’s willingness to shuffle players in and out of the DH spot create an opening almost anywhere on the diamond. The lineup lacks upside when key players miss time, and bolstering the lineup allows for some room for error when injuries eventually happen. 

Here are a few options:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerro Jr. is quietly enjoying his best season since he finished runner-up in MVP voting during the 2021 season. The 25-year-old owns a .833 OPS and has clubbed 16 home runs for the disappointing Blue Jays. He’s owed around $6.6 million for the rest of 2024 and is arbitration-eligible for the 2025 season, making a deal for him highly unlikely. Vladdy sits in the 98th percentile for both average exit velocity (94.1 mph) and hard-hit percentage (55.9%), and he’s in the 95th percentile for xSLG (.538). What makes him different than other power hitters is his contact skills. He’s in the 97th percentile for xBA (.302) and the 82nd percentile for K% (16.2%). 

Vladdy’s downside is his fielding, as he ranks in the 1st percentile with -9 outs above average. A move to the Twins could minimize these faults, as he could serve as a true DH while occasionally sparing Carlos Santana at first base. Guerrero Jr. is a generational talent with a rare combination of power and contact, and he could truly transform the Twins’ lineup into one of the best in the MLB.

Pete Alonso:

If Guerrero Jr. isn’t available at the deadline, the Twins may pivot to a player that fills a similar role in Alonso. Since coming into the league in 2019, Alonso has been one of the best power hitters in baseball. Although he’s having a down year, he still has an OPS+ of 119 with 19 home runs. Alonso is a different hitter this year, seemingly trading some power for fewer swings and misses. Alonso has a career-low whiff rate (21.7%) and chase rate (26.7%). When he does swing, he’s still in the 91st percentile for bat speed (75.2 mph) and the 78th percentile for barrel rate (11.6).

Like Vladdy, Alonso is also terrible in the field, ranking in the 4th percentile with -6 outs above average. He also wouldn’t have to play the field much, assuming the DH role most days and playing first base sporadically. The Mets sit in a three-way tie for the last Wild Card spot with no chance of winning the NL East, making a rental trade for Alonso possible. The Twins have reduced their team strikeout rate by 4.7% from last year, ranking 9th in baseball (20.9%). A trade to the Twins would give Alonso flexibility to add more power at the expense of strikeouts, and a good stretch from him would prove invaluable. 

Brent Rooker:

How about a reunion with one of the best power hitters in baseball? Rooker broke out in 2023, taking advantage of what was likely his last opportunity to produce in MLB. Somehow, in 2024, Rooker is better in almost every metric. He’s 6th in baseball with a 170 OPS+, and he’s tied for 9th in baseball with 22 home runs. His BaseballSavant page is incredible, as he ranks in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.590) with a launch angle sweet-spot percentage (42.1%). He ranks in the 97th percentile for xwOBA (.393) and barrel percentage (17.8). He also ranks in the 94th percentile for hard hit percentage (51%) and the 90th percentile for average exit velocity (92.2 mph).

Swings and misses have always been a massive part of Rooker’s game, but he’s largely reduced them this year. Excluding his 2020 season, where he only played 7 games, Rooker owns career-highs in batting average (.294) and BB% (10.6%). The A’s only owe Rooker $750k this year, and he won’t be a free agent until 2028, but the A’s likely won’t be competitive anytime soon. They may look to sell high and cash out on Rooker’s career-best season, and the Twins need another right-handed outfield/DH bat amidst all their injuries. 

Joc Pederson:

Before recent injuries, the Twins’ righthanded bats were crushing the ball, leading MLB in right-handed OPS with .781. Although their lineup has been decimated, their left-handed hitters haven’t missed much time. Nonetheless, they rank just 17th in MLB with .707 OPS from lefties. Eduoard Julien, who came into the season as the team’s lead-off hitter, just got recalled from AAA. Trevor Larnach has quietly enjoyed a nice season with a 110 OPS+, while Matt Wallner has been tearing the cover off the ball with a 125 OPS+ (albeit in a small sample). Outside of a fantastic two-week stretch, Max Kepler has just been bad. His .700 OPS is the worst mark in his career. Kepler has also seen career worsts in wOBA (.306) and BB% (6.1%). He isn’t striking out much – and his .255 batting average is actually .018 points better than his career average-- but he isn’t hitting the ball hard or drawing walks like he’s done in the past. His defense remains top-notch, but his poor offense gives the Twins reason to explore left-handed options at the deadline.

Pederson has been a bright spot on an otherwise disappointing Arizona Diamondbacks team. His 146 OPS+ and .274 batting average both tie career highs, while his launch angle sweet-spot percentage of 34.5% is his best mark to date. Pederson has a slash line of .281/.379/.502 with 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handers. The Twins MLB-leading right-handed bats give them the flexibility to ensure Pederson rarely plays against lefties, bringing his production to an even stronger level. Pederson has played both corner outfield positions and first base in the past, although he hasn’t played in the field in 2024. The Twins have the luxury of platooning Pederson at DH, as he’d be their best left-handed hitter to face a righty. Also, Pederson is an experienced playoff performer, with a .814 OPS and 12 home runs in 79 post-season games. Pederson is finishing a one-year $12.5 million deal with a mutual option in 2025, making him a borderline elite lineup reinforcement at a low price. This move makes sense for the Twins, as they could fill a need for one of their only offensive weaknesses. 

Although a starter and reliever are higher on the Twins’ order of needs as the deadline approaches, they still need offensive reinforcements following some untimely injuries. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Brent Rooker, and Joc Pederson represent higher-end options. All of these options represent consistent home run power, and they all offer above-average contact skills. Addressing lineup weaknesses with one of these players and prioritizing a playoff-caliber starter will increase the Twins’ playoff chances and strengthen their chances of making a significant post-season run. 

4 Comments


Recommended Comments

Karbo

Posted

I doubt any of these will be Twins. As stated above, getting a starter is the most important move they must make. That's going to cost some money (not to mention a prospect or two) that would raise the payroll. I think ownership would approve a small bump in payroll for the pitcher, but more payroll, as high as Vlad or Alonso may be a bridge to far. Pederson as a primary DH just doesn't track as the way Rocco uses the spot for a rotation of guys as a way to get a break off their feet. Not a necessity IMO.

Twins_Fan_in_NJ

Posted

Admittedly, it is a small sample size but when the line-up is fully healthy, the offense is good enough. Payroll limitations will ensure that none of the listed names are traded to the Twins. But, along with that, I can't help but think the ill-fated 2022 deadline will have the front office thinking twice (and three times) about trading prospects of any significance. 

MinnInPa

Posted

if we get Correa back..Lewis clickin ..and Miranda ..this Offense if fine.. it's the woeful Bullpen that is the problem.. only one i trust is Duran..and even he has been strugglin a bit. Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Staumant, Okert etc can never be trusted

KBJ1

Posted

We haven't had a LF since Rosario was given his walking papers.

Given our glut of infielders and lack of RH 5 tool OF players, the thing that makes the most sense is to move Lewis to LF. He would be a plus fielder and fill that gaping hole. Would be an excellent set lineup that still has great flexibility when needed.

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