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A Different Take on Hard Hit Rate


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Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play.

The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers is at .325. Gallo now ranks 5th among Twins with a hard hit average of .311. I was not surprised to see Donovan Solano near the top. He ranks second at .323. I was surprised to see the 3rd and 4th ranked Twins. Jose Miranda is at .318 and Max Kepler at .314. The only other Twins with a hard hit average above .300 is Carlos Correa at .308. The top three have less than 100 at bats and in Wallner's and Garlick's case far less than 100 ABs. 

I don't know if it is meaningful or more meaningful but I like the look of the number. It is more in the batting average range. It takes into account all of a player's outs including the strike outs. I don't know if it has a name so I called it hard hit average. They should consider giving that Wallner kid another look.

Hard Hit Average through June 29

.474 Matt Wallner
.357 Kyle Garlick
.330 Nick Gordon
.325 Ryan Jeffers
.323 Donovan Solano
.318 Jose Miranda
.314 Max Kepler
.311 Joey Gallo
.308 Carlos Correa
.289 Trevor Larnach
.283 Jorge Polanco
.282 Christian Vazquez
.272 Edouard Julien
.269 Byron Buxton
.259 Alex Kirilloff
.250 Royce Lewis
.250 Kyle Farmer
.239 Willi Castro
.232 Michael A. Taylor

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tony&rodney

Posted

Much more accurate than the stat currently in use. I used similar data points decades ago to measure the quality of an at bat. The goal is to square the ball up, hit into fair territory. The severe upper cut is quite dependent on the pitcher throwing the ball to the path of the swing as opposed to the batter meeting the ball where it is pitched. The best hitters remove the element of luck as much as possible.

BTW, Byron took several flatter cuts yesterday, putting the ball in play. I have no idea if that was purposeful or accidental or coincidental.

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