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Kepler part time at 1st and other playing time options


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Going into the offseason I thought that signing Matt Adams would be a perfect pairing with Tyler Austin. Then we claimed C.J. Cron, which I didn’t think made a ton of sense when I read he was also right handed. The more I looked at it I am fine with the pick up. Cron is a pretty low risk addition and if he comes even close to matching last years production he will be well worth the 4.8 mil. But it got me to thinking about how you parcel up playing time. You now have 2 RH bats for 1B and DH and no lefty to platoon with them. Twins also have a solid 4th OF in Jake Cave who showed signs last year that he can be an above average major leaguer. I started looking at different playing time options and I really liked what it looked like if you played Max Kepler some at 1B. If you give Max 60 starts at 1B it opens up those starts in right for Cave. Penciling in 20 starts in left and center to give Eddie and Byron some off days puts Cave at 100 starts for the season and probably 450 at bats. That is a solid amount of playing time to see if he can improve on his rookie year. I still believe that Kepler has a gear we haven’t seen yet in the majors. I keep wait9ng for a season like he had at Chattanooga. He is very athletic and has the ability to be an outstanding first basemen. This leaves 264 starts at 1B and DH to divvy up. If Cron is a better fielder than Austin then you can give all 102 remaining starts at 1B to Cron. The DH at bats will de divided up based on a couple of things. 1st is how many starts at 3B you can count on Sano for. If he is truly getting in as good as shape as early reports indicate maybe we can get 120 starts at 3B from Miguel. That would be ideal. Give Sano another 20 starts at DH. That leaves 142 starts at DH. I would still like to give Tyler Austin a chance to show his power can play. I know he has contact issues but he looks like a guy that could hit 30 HR a year with playing time. If you have home 100 starts at DH you would still have 40 starts to give Cron. At the end of the season you would still have what should be your starters all getting 140 plus starts. Plus you would be able to get 2 intruiging young players (Cave and Austin) plenty of opportunity with 100 starts each. With this additional time we may find out that Cave is really meant to be a bench guy that makes spot starts, Austin can only start 30 to 40 times a year against lefty’s and Cron is the next LoMo. If that is the case, later this year or next you can plug Rooker, Raley and potentially Kirillof into these spots. Kirillof is the other reason I think the Twins should find out now if Max can play a solid 1B.

8 Comments


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Physics Guy

Posted

I'm not opposed to having Kepler play some 1B, although he is arguably the best OF after Buxton.  In the same vein as your proposal, you can use Cave/Rosario at DH as a LH option as well.  I think the key here is versatility, so I am certainly in favor of letting Kepler play some 1B when it makes sense. 

SomeGuy

Posted

Cave slashed .194/.239/.358 against lefties last year so he should probably be limited to RH starters (.287/.335/.509 against RHP).  Tyler Austin has a nice platoon fit with Cave, his career slash has been .272/.345.592 against LHP and .211/.259/.405 against RHP.  Wouldn't it be easier to just have Cave take DH at bats away from Austin against RHP when we aren't resting another OF?

 

I don't see the advantage of asking a good defensive outfielder to play 1B where he hasn't played a full game since 2015 (AA).  In my opinion that is likely to be a downgrade at 2 positions defensively.

Supfin99

Posted

Would a lineup of Kepler at 1B and Cave in RF be a downgrade from Cron at 1B and Kepler in RF?  I honestly don't know the answer to that?  Cron is considered an average glove guy at best while Cave played CF so I would imagine he would cover a decent amount of ground in right.  I think it is just as likely to upgrade 2 spots defensively as downgrade them.  With Kepler's excellent athleticism I think he would be very good at first with practice. He is definitely a better athlete that Cron and just as tall.

Physics Guy

Posted

 

I like the idea but would reverse the names - give Cave the 550 ABs and Kepler the 450 ABs. Cave was better last year and we should give him more ABs against LH pitching to see if he can improve there. Conversely, Kepler has has 1600 plus PAs over the last 3 years and he has shown himself to be a subpar hitter whether we look at OPS, OPS+, or oWAR. Give both a chance to prove themselves by all means, but right now we should base ABs on performance, past performance to start the year. By that measure, Cave starts every day and Kepler moves around to find ABs.  

First off, I am intrigued by Cave and do want him to get more AB this year if he earns them.  His numbers have a SSS feel to them and there are a couple of concerning things about his output last year.  His .363 BABIP last year reminds me a bit of 2014 Danny Santana and his 5.8%BB vs 33% K is a little concerning.

 

Meanwhile, Kepler had a career-low BABIP of .236 which smacks of a bit of bad luck.  Kepler has 1600 AB in the majors (9.8%BB, 18.7% K), much of them while Cave was still in the minors. They are essentially the same age and Kepler has a longer track record. Kepler had a .745 OPS vs LH last year vs .642 for Cave. If this is about performance, Kepler should bat against lefties more than Cave. Kepler did a good job of improving his platoon splits last year.  If he can get his OPS vs RH back up to career avg that puts him around .768 overall, which in not subpar (which he barely is overall for his career).

SomeGuy

Posted

Cave ranks below Kepler in dWAR and well below him in UZR (10.8 to -1.0).  Its debatable how Cave would have fared in those metrics as only a corner outfielder (he was -0.4 UZR as RF and -0.4 as LF but only had 80 and 29 innings at each)  but he was not good in CF.  Kepler was 3rd in the MLB among outfielders for the UZR category.

 

And yes I am assuming an average everyday 1B is better than Kepler would be but don't know until he plays there I guess.  I personally hope we never have to find out.

 

Seems simple to just platoon Cave with Austin at DH if your only goal is to get more at bats for Cave.

SomeGuy

Posted

Before anyone jumps in with Nelson Cruz should be our DH, consider this....

 

Austin vs lefties .272/.345/.592

Cave vs Righties .287/.335/.509

 

Cruz 2018 overall .256/.353/.513

 

Austin and Cave come with the added benefit of being physically able to play in the field if needed.  They are 27 and 26 years old, they should be on the upswing of their career not the decline.  They are both pre-arb so we can use the potential Cruz money to upgrade the bullpen instead.

Supfin99

Posted

I love those lefty right splits of Austin and Cave.  That is tremendous production.  

Physics Guy

Posted

 

Before anyone jumps in with Nelson Cruz should be our DH, consider this....

 

Austin vs lefties .272/.345/.592

Cave vs Righties .287/.335/.509

 

Cruz 2018 overall .256/.353/.513

 

Austin and Cave come with the added benefit of being physically able to play in the field if needed.  They are 27 and 26 years old, they should be on the upswing of their career not the decline.  They are both pre-arb so we can use the potential Cruz money to upgrade the bullpen instead.

Yep, this is pretty much where I am at and don't understand paying Cruz big $$.  have them platoon with Cave playing some in the OF and either Kepler or Rosario taking a turn at DH.

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