Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Missing bats ceased to be a problem for Joe Ryan once he found his splitter. When he added a sweeper to the mix, his ability to strike batters out went to another level. He's never had a hard time throwing strikes, anyway, so once he reached that new echelon in terms of punchouts, he was almost guaranteed a place among the top rank of starters throughout the majors. There was a missing ingredient, though. Ryan's fastball is a strike machine, and it can miss bats at the top of the zone, too. That's the good news. The bad news is that it's vulnerable to hard contact in the air, when batters do make contact. That's true of lefties and of righties, and it's somewhat immutable. It lies in the nature of Ryan's delivery and his heater's shape. His fastball is incurably homer-prone. Therefore, he needs more ways not to throw it all the time. That's what slowly deepening his arsenal has been about, as he's undertaken that project over the last few years. Having the splitter and the sweeper and his traditional slider and the occasional curveball or sinker at his disposal keeps hitters from squaring up the four-seamer with quite as much conviction, and makes them cover a larger strike zone. Unfortunately, he's found that the sweeper, too, gets lifted, and any time that happens, damage can follow. The splitter does induce weak contact on the ground, but it needed a partner—especially once Ryan began mixing in the sinker. Thus, the righty went to work to tweak his slider. First, as he ratcheted up his usage of the sweeper and made it his main breaking ball, he also firmed up his slider. That makes it materially different in velocity than his sweeper, but still slow enough to be very much distinct from his fastballs. Joe Ryan - SL v. LHH v. RHH Season Velo. H-Mov. IVB Velo. H-Mov. IVB 2023 82.7 -2.1 2.3 83.5 2.2 3.5 2024 87 2.7 4.6 87.2 2.7 4.3 2025 87.5 -0.7 7.3 87.5 0.6 6.1 Interestingly, just as teammate Chris Paddack has spent this summer adding a true slider to the more cutterish pitch that previously dominated pitches classified that way for him, Ryan is doing the opposite. He already had that slider down at sweeper speed, with good depth relative to his four-seamer. This year, he's throwing a lot more of what are effectively cutters. The pitch is averaging almost 88 miles per hour, and its vertical movement is much less. It's not a plunging pitch; it's also not sweeping. For those things, he goes to the sweeper. At this point, that slider is as much a cutter as it is a true slider. Here's how his spin profile looked in 2024. On the left is a histogram showing the number of pitches (colored by type) thrown with each spin direction described on the clock face, based on spin right out of the hand. On the right is the same chart, but showing actual movement direction instead of simple spin direction. Here's the same image for 2025. The sliders (in bright yellow) are hard to see, forming a rim across the top of the quasi-clock. If you look at each visual closely, though, you can see that Ryan was using grip effects to create unexpected glove-side movement with the slider in 2024. This year, the ball is staying much more true, thanks to backspin that isn't distorted by the way Ryan positions the seams as much as it was in the past. That is, in effect, a cutter. As you can see in the table above, the changes are especially pronounced against lefties. That's so that Ryan can jam them, without having the ball end up too low, where it would work right into the bat path of many hitters' swings. Meanwhile, introducing the same change of pitch shape to righties has some advantages, too. This version of the slider can work a bit better off his sinker than the old one could, and he uses the slider to set up the sweeper to righties, too. It's easier to keep this version of the slider on the plate, which means more strikes and forces opponents to respect the rest of his arsenal more. Changing the slider has led to more whiffs for Ryan. Batters missed on 20.6% of swings against the slider over the previous two years, but that figure is 26.7% in 2025. More importantly, though, he's also getting ground balls with it. Over the previous two seasons, opponents averaged a launch angle of 18° against the slider. This year, it's 1°. Though it technically has less glove-side movement now than it did the last two seasons—in fact, technically, it moves very slightly to his arm side, against lefties—it's better at crawling along barrels. Though it's dropping less, it's playing heavier. The reason is simple: the altered spin profile makes it more deceptive. It looks more like his four-seamer than it has in the past. Ryan's arm angle on almost all his stuff has gotten very slightly lower over the last two years. (This isn't intentional; I asked. He says it's just a matter of his mix, and mostly, that checks out.) However, his slider stands out as getting lower by considerably more than it has for his other offerings. Getting lower with the slider, in terms of arm angle, has created more carry on the pitch. That's unusual, or at least, it would be for another pitch type. With the slider, it makes some sense. Ryan's grip change here has actually been very subtle. Mostly, he's getting a little more crossfire with his delivery, and in creating the spin to rip through the ball as he comes around with it, he's backspinning it more. It's a very natural, minor adjustment—but it's had big ramifications. Ryan's slider was 5 runs worse than average in 2023. It was 2 runs to the bad last year, even in limited usage. This season, so far, the run value of the pitch is 0. It doesn't dominate batters, but nor is it a pitch on which he's getting hurt, or even on which he falls behind in counts and gets into trouble. A happy tinkerer, Ryan is always adding things to his arsenal. This year, it's not quite a full-fledged addition, but a renovation. He still has a slider, but it's not the slider he threw two years ago, or even in 2024. It's a better pitch, and because of it, he's a better pitcher. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images It's easy to slap the "good when healthy" label on Byron Buxton, and the label sticks. Not all "good" is created equal, though. Last year, Buxton was quite good. He batted .279/.335/.524, and he cracked 48 extra-base hits in just 388 plate appearances. This year, though, he's been better than that. He's been great when healthy in 2025, and he's been pretty healthy. At the All-Star break, Buxton already has 333 plate appearances and is hitting .289/.351/.574. There are some extra walks in there, which are always nice, but the big difference—the one we'll all get to watch in a fun and unique setting Monday night—is that Buxton has tapped more fully into his power. He has another 39 extra-base hits, and 21 of them have flown out of the park. That's about a lot more than good health. Good health can help, by letting the body work the way it's supposed to, but that alone is not enough. To go from a guy who was on pace to hit 30 homers in a full season to one with a great chance to hit 40, while drawing more walks and not striking out more? That's a full-fledged maturation from a great hitter. Indeed, Byron Buxton is still improving and changing, at age 31. We've already talked about how he's using the opposite field more this year, but that's a contributing factor to his improved plate discipline—or a product thereof. It's not where his power boost has come from. That all lies in his swing, and the way he's locked it in for maximal damage when pitchers make mistakes. Firstly, Buxton has changed how he's set up in the box this year, making it easier for him to get directly to the ball at his best bat speed. He's more open in his stance, and slightly more upright. He's not striding farther from that position, though, which means that he's able to rotate just as fast and has a bit more control of his bat path in the upper half of the zone. He's also farther off the plate, which gives him more room to cover the inner third than he's had in the past, but the natural length of his swing has still given him plenty of power on the outer edge. Here's his stance and stride from 2024, courtesy of Baseball Savant. And here's the same visualization for 2025, where you can see him opened up and set to work differently through the ball. Thanks to that tweak (and his good health), Buxton's swing is a bit freer, and that gets him on plane a bit earlier. In turn, that changes how long he can stay on plane with the pitch, without rolling over on the ball. Buxton's swing has gotten a tiny bit flatter this year, not because of a conscious change to how he tilts the bat or when he breaks his hands, but because of the pitches he's choosing and the stronger position his lower body and trunk are in. Here's what his swing looked like right at the moment when he first got on plane with the pitch, each of the last two years. See how, this year, that all happens with his body more upright, and with his hands deeper, relative to his body? The result of that is that Buxton can drive the ball better to center and to right-center—but also that he's getting up to speed in his swing sooner, so that he doesn't have accelerate as much later. He's in position to attack the ball with less wasted movement, especially on anything around or above the belt. That's why, this year, Buxton's barrel has been lethally accurate when pitchers make mistakes. He's swinging more on pitches up and out over the plate, and he's being more selective on everything else, because he can afford to be. A shorter stride and a more upright body change the way you see the ball, and they change your sense of timing, too. Buxton knows he's on time, so he doesn't feel rushed into swings at bad pitches. When he does swing, his slightly shorter and slightly faster cut catch the ball flush. Here's the percentage of pitches Buxton saw in 2024 on which he hit a Barrel, according to Statcast, by location. Here, with the adjusted stance and swing and the approach they've facilitated, is the same chart for Buxton for 2025. He might not be in position to drive as wide a variety of pitches as in the past, but Buxton now knows what his pitch looks like right out of the hand, and he absolutely does not miss it. This chart is also a near-perfect chart for a prospective Home Run Derby participant. All Tommy Watkins has to do on Monday night is get the ball into the middle of the zone; Buxton has crushed that pitch this year like few others can. Buxton's swing is a bit different. His whole profile has changed. As long as he stays healthy, perhaps that will continue. For now, though, he's found something so valuable that he should just lock into it and ride it. Monday night should be a delightful time for that to happen. View full article

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Perhaps more than anyone else in the Twins clubhouse, Ryan Jeffers trusts the process. He came out of the gates this spring with tough numbers, and after one of the bad bumps a catcher inevitably takes left him with a hurting hand in April, even some of the under-the-hood data (bat speed, most notably) pointed in the wrong direction. However, the veteran backstop never faltered. To make any kind of reactionary change would go against everything he set out to do after the disappointing end to the 2024 season. "This offseason, I came to them with a goal of mine of wanting to be more consistent," Jeffers said Tuesday, inside the home clubhouse at Target Field. "I’ve been kind of riding the roller coaster, the ups and the downs, a little too much. I was one of the best hitters in baseball for a month and a half, two months last year, and then I was really bad for a couple of months. I’m trying to even that out, and we’ve done that." Consistency—or the lack thereof—has been a frequent topic among Twins fans over the last few years, as the team seems to alternate surging and sputtering. Jeffers is right, of course: he's been just as prone to that as the club who won 12 games in a row last spring and 13 in a row this year, but finished 2024 12-27 to crash out of playoff position. To fix that problem, on an individual level, Jeffers brought a new approach at the plate in 2025. His swing rate is dramatically down this year, from 48.5% to 39.2%. He came up as a disciplined hitter who rarely chased, but had gotten more willing to expand the zone in pursuit of power over the last two campaigns. This year, that's abruptly changed; he's swinging at fewer than 25% of pitches outside the strike zone. Even within it, he's been radically selective. The resulting 11.3% walk rate is (by far) a career-best, and that's kept him on base even at times when the rest of the lineup was failing to put any pressure on opposing pitchers or defenses. For a while, though, exercising that pitch-to-pitch patience also meant maintaining patience of another kind: emotional, big-picture equanimity, amid bad batted-ball luck that deflated his numbers. This is where it helps to be open to newfangled data. "You can look at the power numbers being down this year, but that can be deceiving in a way—because my expected numbers are much better than what my real numbers are," Jeffers said. "I’ve been getting unlucky. By a lot of the underlying metrics, if not all the underlying metrics, this is my best offensive season. I’m definitely doing something right. It’s hard to not be slugging like I have in the past, but I think there’s no doubt, I think there’s no hiding the fact that I can be a 20-plus homer guy. I don’t think other teams look at me and go, ‘Oh, he’s a slop hitter now.’" He said all that just before a series against the visiting Cubs in which he went 5-for-10, with a walk, two doubles and a home run. The actual value has shown up now, but Jeffers never doubted that it would. "I’ve had two or three homers robbed on me this year, and there’s a couple balls that I hit in certain parks that would have been homers in over half the parks," he said. "There’s been a lot of instances where I’ve had more opportunities, but like I said, all of my underlying numbers are the best they’ve ever been—the hard-hit rates, the launch angles, some of the more intricate, run-value type stats, are the best they’ve ever been. So obviously, I’m doing something right. I’m sacrificing a little bit oif slug, but I don’t feel any less dangerous up there." That's all well and good, but there's also another factor we should discuss: Jeffers is healthy right now. After taking a foul tip off the hand early in the season, he ran much slower bat speeds than are his wont for the first two months of the campaign. Lately, though, he's swinging as fast as ever—and getting to the ball on plane as well as ever, and pulling the ball more than ever. Ryan Jeffers, Bat-Tracking Data by Month, 2024-25 Season Month Bat Speed (MPH) Swing Tilt (°) Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) 2024 April 73.2 31.0 11.7 -5.1 31.3 2024 May 73.0 31.1 11.4 -6.4 32.4 2024 June 72.5 27.7 7.0 -1.7 28.4 2024 July 72.1 29.1 7.9 -2.5 29.6 2024 August 73.6 29.1 8.7 -4.7 32.1 2024 September 72.9 28.2 8.8 -3.0 29.8 2025 April 71.4 29.8 8.8 0.6 27.5 2025 May 71.7 28.5 8.8 -1.3 27.4 2025 June 72.6 27.8 11.3 -5.7 30.7 2025 July 73.6 27.5 11.3 -8.2 30.7 The lefthand column jumps out, but don't overlook the more subtle changes happening. Jeffers has traded a bit of the tilt in his swing for that extra tick of bat speed, but in his case (particularly while he's making such good swing decisions), it's a sound trade. He made the conscious choice to let the ball travel more, hitting it less out in front (right-most column) early this year, but as he's tapped into more sheer bat speed, he's been able to catch it earlier even while remaining very patient at the plate. More of Jeffers's swing acceleration is happening early in his swing. That gives him more bat control through the hitting zone; he doesn't have to rush the barrel to reach the ball. As a result, he's not only chasing less and walking more, but making contact on a career-high rate of swings within the zone (86.6%) and striking out at a career-low rate (17.7%). His surface-level numbers still don't look as good as they did in, say, 2023, but Jeffers is right that the underlying ones all say he's the best he's ever been. That he adopted such an altered approach in search of consistency is admirable; that he's found so much consistency is downright amazing. Here's a rolling chart of his expected weighted on-base average over 50-plate appearance samples, throughout his career. He's never been solidly above-average for this long before, without enduring a slump from which he had to recover. He's tapped into something hugely valuable. "I think there’s still, I’m a couple homers away from just climbing those numbers higher and higher, but I feel really good with where I’m at," Jeffers said, the afternoon before he hit one of those homers. Indeed, right now, he's a player who should feel really good. He's discovered an approach that can yield not only consistency, but excellence. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images "Yeah, it’s pretty simple," Chris Paddack began, as he tried to answer my question about the introduction of a true slider into his mix this summer. Those are the first four of over 1,300 words I transcribed from an interview with Paddack Sunday, in which I left out anything I said. Paddack is an eager, thoughtful, verbose ball-talker, and it's not just a way of ingratiating himself to the media. He can't help himself. Every pitcher is really two different pitchers: the guy he is, and the guy he thinks he is. How married one is to the second affects the caliber of the first, not only because every pitcher has to make adjustments over the course of a start, a season or a career, but because being locked into a certain identity or mindset often means missing opportunities to improve. In his younger days, Paddack has probably fallen into the trap of being too confident in what he already had. This year, he's leaning hard into the idea of finding new things in his bag of tricks. Take that slider, for instance. It wasn't a pitch he threw when the season began, but it turned out to be relatively easy to mix into his arsenal, so he's done it. "I have the cutter grip that we kind of brought into the season, had some really good success," Paddack said, rolling a baseball in his hands to find and demonstrate the grip. "Then we noticed we tried to use it late to some guys, and it was more of just a foul ball or a show-me pitch, so then I was like, ‘Man, now that I have that cutter, I need some swing-and-miss,’ something that I can go east and west with, to lefties, righties. That’s where I’m basically just putting the fingers together"—the ball, still cradled in what had been the cutter grip, shifted slightly as he brought his first two fingers together over the seam—"and it’s same thought, same mentality, same focus at release to get that slider. But the cutter’s gonna be 88 to 90, the slider’s anywhere between 83 to 86." Pitch-classification systems still call both pitches a slider, but if you analyze each individual pitch, you can see the differences. Here's a plot of all the so-called sliders Paddack has thrown this year, charted by horizontal and vertical movement and colored by velocity. I've highlighted six pitches from his most recent start, against the Rays, to show the two different shapes and speeds he's now utilizing even within the same outing. Paddack has also (cautiously) introduced a sinker to his mix this year, which makes two additions to the mix this year. Doing that is highly unorthodox, but Paddack has elected to give it a shot. "Usually that’s something you do in the offseason, but it’s something that I know that I need in my arsenal," Paddack said of those changes. "And the fact that [pitching coach Pete Maki]’s given me some good advice, talking to some players that have different grips, different focuses when they release that pitch, that’s helped me a lot. I’m excited to take that into the second half, probably not add another pitch, but just focus on the tools we have—the execution." Lately, of course, Paddack has taken a beating. He had a 3.53 ERA over his first 13 starts, but that number has jumped to 7.99 over his last five. Some of that was bad luck, but some was giving up crooked numbers, especially via the home run. His start against the Rays on July 4 was a good step back in the right direction, though. He held Tampa Bay to two runs over five innings, striking out five (including two with that new slider) and neither walking anyone nor allowing a homer. He's had growing pains, but remains excited about where he is after these new installations. "I have been guilty of trusting it too much, of leaning on those pitches that I’m trying to find it in-game, and I end up falling behind in counts, or end up letting up some slug on those [new] pitches," he said. "So it’s hurt me, too, but it’s also helped me. Now, it’s blending them." As he experiments, even failure can be a good teacher—but success is the best one. Once Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers see what success with the slider and the sinker look like, they can call those pitches more often or with more conviction. "I’m a fastball-changeup guy. I know that. Hitters know that," Paddack said, "So being able to play the cat-and-mouse game at times, throwing that pitch when I need to, trusting our catchers to call that pitch, has definitely helped me mentally. Not overthinking on the mound, have those guys call those pitches. If they’re looking at their cheat sheet and that’s the putaway pitch for our option, I’m not gonna shake. I’m gonna go with it. I think it’s definitely helped, it’s adding some different looks for lefties and righties for me this year." One ancillary benefit Paddack talked about, with a deeper repertoire, is protecting that fastball and changeup (and even his curve, long the third pitch in his mix but never a dominant one) longer. Many pitchers—especially those who have always had their arsenal, as opposed to those (like Paddack) who add more after they've established themselves or even within a campaign—prefer to lead with and establish their strongest offerings, and mix in tertiary weapons later. Paddack flips that idea on its head a bit, trying to introduce his varied arsenal early and keep hitters from being able to sit on his fastball or changeup the second time through, having already gotten a look at them. The third time through the order is one thing, but Paddack ran into big trouble the second time through in 2024, with opponents running an .871 OPS against him. This year, that number is down to .733, which is far more manageable. At times, because he still only has two plus offerings in that six-pitch gallimaufry, Paddack does get hit hard. He's learned, however, how to keep one bad inning from turning into two or three—and he's passionate about helping his teammates do the same thing. "I try to teach that to some of our younger guys, too, making those in-game adjustments," he said. "A perfect example is [David Festa] in Miami. He’s a fastball-slider guy, started mixing in the changeup, got some swing-and-misses, Vazqy started calling it more. He ended up, I think he had two or three punchies through 3? He ended up going six, with seven punch. He struck out four in the last three innings, and in some big counts, some big situations. Him and Vazqy made that in-game adjustment of, ‘hey, the changeup’s working. Let’s get them off the fastball-slider. We can maybe go to that late, or go to it early to get ahead and then we can put away guys with the changeup.' And that gives him confidence for the next outing, knowing that he already got some swings and misses the start prior." Sure enough, Festa leaned hard on the changeup again against the Cubs Wednesday night, throwing 21 of them. He got five whiffs on 13 swings and gave up no damage on that pitch. Finding some success with a pitch one doesn't yet fully trust can help a pitcher find the best version of that weapon, and thus, of themselves. Absorbing those tough innings and then chaining together zeroes to keep the team in the game is hugely valuable, and Paddack is preaching that to everyone who will listen. "Save the bullpen, but also, I think something I’ve learned in my career is that if I let up a crooked number early in the game—say I let up a 3-spot or a 4-spot in the second inning—if I put up zeroes in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth, those four zeroes add up," he said. "Over the course of a season, that’s 12 innings of zero runs. We can’t let that snowball effect happen, because then, if you put up a 3- or 4-spot in the second, a 2-spot in the fifth, now next thing I know, I didn’t shut the door." While most people outside the game see the forward march of analytics as a boon to pitchers, Paddack is a big believer in the power of that kind of information for hitters—which means that he (and all hurlers) have to keep innovating, to stay ahead of well-prepared and very talented batsmen. "Just trust your gut, trust your catchers. It’s more weapons," he said. "More weapons to attack big-league hitters, who have incredible hand-eye coordination, are able to have a feel for the zone. They have all their data, they know what we’re gonna throw and when we’re gonna throw it. You have to be able to constantly mix, unless you’re like a Skubal, where you could tell guys what’s coming and they still have no chance. Not many of those. You’ve gotta continue to never settle. I’m never gonna settle. There’s always something to improve, something to gain from every outing. And for me, this year, it’s taking a couple pitches that we worked on in spring and start mixing it in on the back of my baseball card, when it counts." Despite the uneven recent results, Paddack believes he's found some things that work. He's embracing discomfort on the mound and leadership away from it. He knows he might be a trade candidate this month, but is focusing on how he can best dominate each time he takes the mound and contribute as a mentor and vocal leader between turns in the rotation. "I’m excited, man. It’s given me a lot of confidence. It’s actually changed the way I pitch to certain guys. Fastball-changeup had success coming up, and then got hit around a little bit, got hit in the mouth. Had some injuries that kind of put my career on hold. So it’s like, now I have a couple weapons that I can throw the kitchen sink at guys for longer at-bats. If I face them two or three times in a game, it gives me options. Kudos to our pitchers, from the bullpen all the way to our starting staff, picking their brain and giving me good positive feedback." As tough as the season has been, for both team and player, there's hope yet. Paddack, especially, feels he's unlocked something, and that (like this team) he can achieve more in the second half after making some crucial adjustments. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Joe Ryan felt he had done everything he could to earn inclusion at next week’s All-Star festivities. Now, the league has acknowledged that fact. With Hunter Brown unavailable to pitch in the game due to a start this weekend, Ryan got the nod as a replacement selectee. He’ll slide up in the Twins’ injury-ravaged rotation and pitch Friday’s series opener with the Pirates against fellow All-Star Paul Skenes, ensuring that he can pitch for the AL if the chance comes Tuesday. “Yeah, I was just super excited. I don't know,” Ryan said after learning the news. “The first thought that came to me was just being excited for [Byron Buxton] and being able to watch the Home Run Derby and him be at his home ballpark. I think that's such a cool aspect of this game, that I get to share that experience with him.” For Buxton, who was briefly the only Twin tabbed for the game, the feeling was mutual. "It means a lot," Buxton said. "I don't think it's something he had on his radar at the beginning of the year. It's just about coming out, pitching well, and he's done everything that you could possibly ask to get to this spot. It's definitely good to see him get rewarded. He definitely needs to be in." This will be Ryan’s first trip to the Midsummer Classic, but he’s made good cases for selection in each of the last three first halves. To get over that hump required [player reason], but that doesn’t diminish what Ryan has accomplished. Even beyond his sparkling 2.76 ERA, the numbers are exceptional. Baseball Reference offers a step-by-step layout of the way they compare a pitcher’s actual runs allowed (RA9, or runs allowed per nine innings, earned or otherwise) to their expected ones. The key adjustments are quality of opponent, defensive support, and park factors. Ryan’s opponents have been stronger than average this year; the Twins defenses aligned behind him have been below-average; and he’s pitched in a mix of parks that favors hitters, overall. His 2,85 RA9 is dramatically lower than the 5.17 RA9 Baseball Reference’s model estimates an average hurler would have allowed. Only the following four pitchers have more Runs Above Average, following this framework, than Ryan has this year: Zack Wheeler Paul Skenes Tarik Skubal Cristopher Sánchez In the past, for various reasons, Ryan’s ERA and RA9—his actual run prevention indices—have sometimes failed to match what his skills suggested he deserved. He would let adversity snowball and end up giving up big innings, or let up too many home runs. This year, though, he’s been every bit as good at keeping runs off the board as at striking batters out and limiting baserunners. Perhaps he’s gotten an assist from a slightly deadened baseball, but he’s also been better at managing difficult situations—and his arsenal has gotten deeper and more varied, making it harder for opponents to square him up. Here's what his mix looked like, in terms of movement and velocity, in 2024. And here's what he's done to alter the picture in 2025. Ryan has added a curveball to his main breaking ball, the sweeper, and subtly subdivided his slider. It was one pitch; now it's almost two distinct ones. Of late, a harder, more cutter-like version of the pitch is prevailing for him. He's also more fully embraced the sinker he started throwing last year, including going to the pitch against left-handed batters at times. That pitch, in particular, has helped him run a career-high 38.6% ground-ball rate, and it's even earned him a gratifying, unexpected nunber of whiffs. "I've gone to it a lot," Ryan said. "The spin is so similar, it's the same spin as my split, so that's kind of nice. Just having another weapon to go to, I mean, you watch the best guys in the game, they have the two fastballs—aside from deGrom, I'd say, most guys that are doing it at that level have a sinker, have a four-seamer. It's just such a tough look for hitters. We started throwing to lefties a bit more, too." With those small changes, Ryan has unlocked the damage suppression that was the lone missing ingredient from his game until now. It's been enough to open a few more eyes, even in a game obsessed with the strikeouts he was already racking up at an admirable rate. Now, while it's unlikely he needs or decides to show off all six (or seven) of his pitches next week, he'll at least get to mingle with the rest of the All-Star hurlers who have proved to be that well-rounded. It's an honor for which he doesn't mind having had to wait. He mentioned being glad to get a chance to talk to Wheeler, who helped him hone his sinker last year. He also took time to praise the process of between-starts adjustment and preparation with the coaching staff. "The work with Pete and Matt Daniels and Luis and everybody has been a tremendous help to get everything honed in," he said. "We're working on stuff every week. Even if I have a great outing, we're still trying to get better each time, and add more, and subtract in areas volume wise usually. Just trying to be the pitcher I can be and always working to get better and always working to make some adjustments. I would say the arsenal is at a pretty good spot right now." That competitive drive has finally resulted in the recognition Ryan's teammates and manager long felt he deserved. "He’s had some other first halves that were good and probably was in consideration for something like this in the past," Rocco Baldelli said Wednesday. "But he just has continued to go out there and just do the work. You have to do the work. You have to have the success and put up the numbers and be just continuously really good. And he has. He seemed so happy when we told him. I feel like you could feel it off of him, you could see it in his face. He’s worked really hard for it, and now he gets to be acknowledged the way he should. It was great news for all of us." View full article

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images, © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images By the time the Minnesota Twins visited Wrigley Field last August, Pete Crow-Armstrong had begun the breakout that has made him one of the main characters of Major League Baseball in 2025. He wasn't yet the player he's been this season, but he'd made an important change to his mechanics that had unlocked some power, and that made it easier for him to stay in the lineup—where his defense and baserunning could lend him major value. That week, though, Byron Buxton was sidelined by back tightness, after he'd slammed into a wall making a catch in the previous series. The Twins' star center fielder missed the whole series. Thus, Tuesday night will be the first time that the same center field is graced by both Crow-Armstrong and Buxton on the same day. It's an exhilarating moment, for fans of each of the teams involved and for the game itself. When the All-Star Game begins in Georgia one week from now, Crow-Armstrong will be in center field for the National League. It's very likely that, before that game is over, Buxton will take over in center for the American League, the local product made good. This week, however, the two get to put on their own exhibition, taking center stage in one of the game's most dazzling jewel-box ballparks. Not only are these baseball's two best center fielders so far, but any argument for anyone else feels a bit faint—a bit pale and silly. Julio Rodríguez and Jackson Chourio have the kind of talent to keep pace with these two, but neither is having that kind of season. Jackson Merrill has been diminished by injuries after an extraordinary rookie season, but his tools don't match those of Crow-Armstrong and Buxton. If you buy unreservedly into the defense of Ceddanne Rafaela or Jake Meyers, you can put them almost on the same level for this year, alone, but eventually, you have to reconcile the numbers with what you see when the players all take the field. Nothing any of these others have done, this year or in the past, quite allows you o do that the way you can with Buxton and Crow-Armstrong. The version of the game these two play is pulsing, sizzling, searing. It transcends their numbers—although, this year, their numbers are sterling. They take over games in ways no other players seem capable of, thanks to a rare combination of tools, skills, and baseball IQ. In many ways, they're mirror images of one another, sharing obvious similarities but defined by some of their differences. Buxton is a strapping 6-foot-2, listed at 189 pounds (but probably lighter) when he came up in 2015, but now a sturdy 210 pounds (probably heavier, though only slightly). He's a Black man from small-town southeast Georgia, and a right-handed hitter, wearing No. 25 on his back. Crow-Armstrong is a flat 6 feet, and is listed at 190 pounds. Unlike the version of Buxton who weighed that much a decade ago, though, he looks almost maxed-out at that weight; his frame doesn't imply forthcoming growth the way Buxton's did. The son of two actors, he's a White man from a wealthy section of Los Angeles, and a left-handed hitter. He switched to No. 4 this year, but came up wearing 52—Buxton's number, flipped. Once the game begins, though, their similarities take over. Both have the same, lonely rough edge on their games: an extremely aggressive approach at the plate. Both have major power, beyond what you'd expect—especially from Crow-Armstrong, but even from the broad-shouldered Buxton. Both have explosive speed, which shows up in the near-impossibility of turning double plays against them and in their ability to steal bases almost without risk. (Indeed, their efficiency on steal attempts is as notable as the volume of bases they take.) Both also have the rare gifts that make up an exceptional defensive center fielder. There's the speed, of course, but also great arm strength, tremendous reads and the ability to adjust in whatever way is necessary to make the play at the last moment. Each player takes pride in their glovework, but each also takes such immense pleasure in a clutch hit that they neither can nor attempt to hide it. Each plays with an intensity and a fearlessness that occasionally imperils them, but that also colors in their game with the detail and dimension that turns a very good player into a great one. Buxton has stretched his body past its breaking point many times, either by colliding with things too recklessly or by moving so ferociously that his ligaments and tendons simply couldn't keep up. At times, it's looked like Crow-Armstrong would do the same thing, but his great jumps in the outfield have gotten him to most balls with time to spare, and he's been wise enough not to try to run through the bricks and ivy at Wrigley Field. Playing every aspect of the game well. Pushing the capacity of one player to become the focal point of an entire game past its usual limits. The frisson of danger that runs up your spine each time they vault themselves after a drive into the gap; the shockwave they send through the ball when they catch it clean. Although Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the best players in baseball, and although it might be wiser to invest in Bobby Witt Jr. or Juan Soto than in either Buxton or Crow-Armstrong, none of those players are as vividly great—as sparking with ways to win games that don't both to hide themselves—as these two are. Buxton leads MLB with six games this year in which he's both hit a home run and stolen a base. Crow-Armstrong uses his balletic footwork to stop and thwart baserunners, turning a strong arm up to maybe the game's most useful. Buxton robbed White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi of a game-flipping gapper and sealed a Twins win in April, on a play even the other center fielders all around him marveled at. Crow-Armstrong created a run last month when he stole third base, then caught the third baseman in a tractor beam, froze him and beat him back to the base on a ground ball, setting up a rally. Each player had a sequence in mid-June in which they made a rally-stopping, diving catch on a play in left-center field, then hit their longest home run of the season in the next half-inning. Buxton did it on June 11, taking runs off the board for the visiting Rangers with a catch to end the top of the third: ek1MajlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQWxSU1hGMVJVVkFBQ0ZwV1VBQUhWUWRWQUFBQ0FBVUFVMTBDQkZZRFZBRUdCRmNE.mp4 He then hit a ball 479 feet with two on in the bottom half of that frame. ek1MajlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdKUVYxd01VbFFBWFZFR0J3QUhDUVJmQUZsV1ZsQUFBRkJUQmdFRlZRZGNWVkZm.mp4 Six days later, Crow-Armstrong turned a hit that would have put the tying run on base in the top of the eighth into an out. akQ5Z0FfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFKV1VnQUhWMVlBV2xjRVh3QUhBRlVDQUFOUVV3TUFDMUlIVVFkVVYxWUVDQUlD.mp4 Leading off the bottom of that frame, he hit one high off the video board above the right-field wall. akQ5Z0FfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZWWkJ3QlZCUUlBWEZ0UUF3QUhDQTRFQUZrREIxSUFWZ1FHVWxFQ1ZGY0RBUUZU.mp4 Each of these two can turn a run or two for the opponents into none, and then create runs for their own team in the blink of an eye. Each has a good chance to hit 30 or more homers and steal 30 or more bases this year. Crow-Armstrong and Buxton are superstars, at their best. This might be the end of Buxton's prime, and Crow-Armstrong might go through plenty of rough patches in years ahead. That's why this matchup is so special. Two uniquely brilliant players will take the field in turns this week, at their absolute best. More than just a trailer for it, this could be the game's best center fielders' own private version of the All-Star Game. View full article

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images You could hear the scraped note in Joe Ryan's voice, at last, when a columnist who had misunderstood him asked to clarify how All-Star selections seem to be based on more than stats. "No, no," said the Twins righthander, certainly a star but not quite an All-Star, yet again. "It's NOT on stats." In other words, while Ryan claimed not to have dived too deeply into his own numbers, he's aware of them. He feels as though he's earned his place at next week's All-Star Game in Georgia, and he's at a loss to explain or defend himself in the wake of the fact that the game didn't make room for him. "Yeah, I mean, another year," he had said when the subject was first raised, letting listeners feel the gathering weight that had hit him when he was informed that he had missed out again this summer, "but at the same time, it's not based on stats, so it is what it is. And I'll leave it there." Ryan, 29, has been one of the best first-half pitchers in baseball for each of the last four seasons—especially the last three. Here are his numbers for each of those campaigns, at the All-Star break: 2023: 18 starts, 107 innings, 3.70 ERA, 8-6, 124 strikeouts, 18 walks, .636 opponent OPS 2024: 19 starts, 114 2/3 innings, 3.53 ERA, 6-6, 124 strikeouts, 19 walks, .668 opponent OPS 2025: 18 starts, 104 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 8-4, 116 strikeouts, 21 walks, .589 opponent OPS As things stand now, Ryan is slated to make one more start before this year's break, on Saturday against the Pirates. Though the righty didn't want to make it about himself Sunday, his frustration with the process that has denied him the recognition that he belongs among the game's elite was palpable. If voters were paying close enough attention, they might even have given him extra credit for bearing up so well in a campaign that has seen his partners at the front end of the Twins rotation (Pablo López and Bailey Ober) felled by injuries. He can't do much more to earn that status, but so far, it hasn't been conferred on him. Nor did he seem especially hopeful when asked whether the possibility of being named as a replacement player due to injuries or unavailability was on his mind. "I mean, it's beyond me now, so I have no control over that," Ryan said. "That's all, I guess. Just trying to win games." Ryan didn't seek to make the moment about himself, and the team is unanimously happy for Byron Buxton (who was named to the team Sunday). The hurler even went out of his way to mention the support he's gotten from teammates. "I mean, I just try to pitch well," he said. "We've had really good defense all year that put me in a really good spot to be considered, so I don't know." In truth, if the Twins were having a better season, Ryan might well have gotten over the hump this time. He's pitched in and out of trouble at times, but his control is superb, and his strikeout rates have been uniformly impressive over the last few years, especially early in seasons. He's doing better at keeping the ball in the park in 2025. He just can't seem to catch the eye of fellow players or coaches, to gain the selection he clearly craves—and arguably deserves. Ryan was upbeat about his outing Sunday, in which he pitched a solid six innings and kept the Twins in the game to set up a late comeback. Minnesota dropped the final contest of their series against the Rays in 10 innings, but Ryan's work helped them get that far, and he said the team took some solace in having bounced back enough to push the game into extras. "I think it's a good sign whenever you can come back, even if it falls apart," Ryan said. "Obviously, that's not what you want, and you want to win the game, and hold that there. Our bullpen's been really solid, so I think we have that potential to just keep going. We had two really good wins this weekend, so just ride those, and keep playing good baseball. It'll come together." That's what he's hoping, now: that he and his team can keep playing good baseball, and it'll come together. He has to wait another year for the possibility of being named an All-Star, but in the meantime, he can set the goal of pitching a full season without an injury or a prolonged (perhaps injury-driven) period of struggle. He can also keep trying to help his team shake off their bouts of inconsistency and play solid enough baseball throughout the second half to avoid becoming trade deadline sellers—in which case, of course, he might be making next year's All-Star case in different colors. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images In addition to being named an All-Star reserve outfielder Sunday, Byron Buxton received an invitation from the league to participate in next week's Home Run Derby at Truist Park in the suburbs outside Atlanta. For Buxton, the second-time All-Star who will be playing before a home crowd in his native state, that was too good a chance to miss. "When you're healthy, and you have the opportunity come across to be able to do things like this, you don't pass them up," Buxton told reporters in a conference call Sunday. "And just having conversations with everybody that needed to know and that was important to me, it was something that I wanted to do, and they supported me plenty." Few players who receive the honor of an All-Star selection are less likely to take it for granted than Buxton. Despite his status as a former No. 2 overall pick and one of the top prospects in the game before his debut, he's intimately familiar with the ways the game can dangle your talent before you, holding it just out of reach. He's the kind of player who could make the trip to the annual exhibition almost every year, but injuries stunted his development at several points and have stopped him from showcasing his talent for much of his decade-long career. To overcome that in a season that offers the chance to play in a national event before his local people is especially exciting for Buxton, whose family has grown since he was last given this chance—and who will be able to enjoy a break back home even while embracing the hoopla of All-Star Week. "It means a lot. I think the biggest thing for me is, the last time I went to the game, as far as family-wise, there were four of us, and we didn't have any kids," he reflected. "So being able to make it back, with my whole family this time, is very special—and to do it back home, with this Twins uniform on, it's a blessing. Everybody doesn't get to play as many years as I did, and to be able to do it with the Twins and know I'm gonna do it with the Twins every year I make it, is something special to me and my family." The tenacious pride he takes in representing his team should seize the attention of fans, as much as his affable attempts to deflect attention from himself. If there were any lingering questions about whether he would accept a trade to any other team this summer, comments like the above should put them to rest. Buxton has made a true home in the Twin Cities, too. That he has put down such meaningful roots in Minnesota, in a way, compounds the special feeling of returning to his roots in the South for this occasion. "Going back home to do something like this, it's a once-in-a-lifetime thing," he said. "I know I'm not gonna play 30 more years for it to come back to Atlanta, so it's that once-in-a-lifetime kind of opportunity. I talked about it with some close people, some guys on the team, some friends, family, everybody got excited. It's one of those things where, they didn't want me to pass up this opportunity." With the combination of an unbroken body and an unbroken string of everyday at-bats, Buxton has steadily worked his way into greater consistency and power production over the last two seasons. This year, he's slugging .544, and his 20 home runs put him easily on pace to best his career high of 28. Better yet, he's done it largely while tamping down the massive strikeout rate that came with his previous high in 2022. He's a more well-rounded slugger than ever. Rocco Baldelli said the change to his overall offensive game has been real and tangible this year, and perhaps is a product of simply being able to get into a daily routine. "It is true. You're not gonna be able to put in as much work if you're battling things," Baldelli said, at the end of the team's last homestand. "He's been able to get a full day's work pregame, and then play in the game, pretty much every day this year. I think that definitely can take your game to different places." That's included more walks, more stolen bases, and a greater usage of the opposite field. It's also meant hitting the ball hard more often, even with a slightly more compact swing than he's used in the past. He'll get to put all of that on full display next week. His ability to hit genuine moonshots has never been in doubt, and he's displayed it more often than ever this year. His children are especially excited. Buxton is not one to clamor for (or, sometimes, even to accept) the spotlight, but his family's exhortations and the chance to embrace both his family's home and his adopted one at once will make next week unique and wonderful for him. For Twins fans, amid a season of aggravation and with the trade deadline hanging over everything like a dark cloud, Buxton—loudly asserting that his place is this one, playing the best baseball of his illustrious career, and getting to show off what he can do on ESPN—remains the warm ray of sunlight. View full article

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images The Twins placed righthander Bailey Ober on the injured list Wednesday, citing a left hip impingement. That Ober was dealing with pain and/or a compromised range of motion in that hip has been no secret for a solid month, but because the issue began to flare just when Pablo López and Zebby Matthews were felled by shoulder trouble, Ober pitched through it for as long as possible. It was a noble and necessary gamble on his part. Teammates respected his willingness to do it, and the organization would have had to scramble furiously to fill his rotation spot in the aftermath of the López and Matthews injuries. However, the results were hideous. Ober's starts became increasingly non-competitive, with uncharacteristic bouts of wildness and far, far too many home runs by opposing batters. That Ober continued to absorb innings and take pressure off the bullpen in most of those discouraging outings added another layer of value for the team, but it was untenable. Now, the scramble they briefly delayed is on. Kody Funderburk will become a ninth man in the team's bullpen for the final two games of their road trip, but the question is who will take Ober's place in the starting rotation on Friday—and, in all likelihood, for the one start left between that game and the All-Star break. The most likely candidates are Marco Raya and Travis Adams, each of whom is on the 40-man roster and each of whom have pitched bulk innings all year for the St. Paul Saints. Raya is the one on schedule for a Friday appearance, although the team could always use a bullpen day or shuffle their rotation a bit. This is also why the team acquired Connor Gillispie and José Ureña in recent days. Gillispie is also on the 40-man roster, and since none stand out based on performance or short-term upside, Gillispie, Adams and Raya can all be considered co-favorites for that spot in the rotation over the next fortnight. If, as seems likely, the Twins slouch out of the playoff race entirely and become sellers this month, there could be opportunities for more than one of that quartet, as the team would be more likely to handle Ober, López and Matthews carefully—and could field calls on both Chris Paddack and Joe Ryan before the trade deadline. Ober has become a walking symbol of the team's season. He made a valiant effort to work through adversity and find success, but he's been unable to do his best work almost all year, and now, it looks like it'll be a lost year for him. It might well be so for the team, too. Hopefully, at the very least, some rest will bring relief and help Ober get back into a groove near the end of this year, and he can return to his previous form in 2026. Nothing is guaranteed, though, especially for 6-foot-9 pitchers. View full article

It's certainly not hurting anything, but that attempt rate—twice as high as in any of the last three seasons—tells us he's running more per opportunity, not just stealing more total bases because of increased playing time or an improved OBP.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images If (like me) you're a long-time listener to Gleeman and the Geek, the mountain that grew from a molehill in Monday's Patreon episode probably felt familiar. As a listener since 2011 (although not quite as consistent a one as I used to be), I can describe it pretty neatly, in broad strokes. We'll get down to the details of this latest one in just a moment. Here's what happens, and happened. Aaron says something, usually on a topic he had plotted as part of the outline of the episode. John responds and muses about something related to that topic. Aaron hears something more than John actually says, and away we go. The whole thing goes off the rails as Aaron tries to debunk or rebut an argument John was never really making. This is not, of course, a complaint. The above makes for good radio, because Aaron is probably at his best when he's worked up over nothing, and John is excellent at laughing along and not really defusing Aaron, even when (if the goal were to do a tight hour of focused Twins talk) he probably should. This happens about once a quarter, or at least, that's how often I hear it; I don't catch every episode now that they make a few of them each week. I caught Monday's show, though, and we got a real humdinger of a sequence out of these two on the subject of Byron Buxton's basestealing. Aaron was trying (as he later explicitly said) to recite some facts about Buxton's superb 2025 campaign and elicit from John a simple co-sign. John had clearly been thinking, independently, about how nice it was to see Buxton running so much more, and specifically, running more right after he reached base. He mentioned as much, including saying he hoped to study this soon and see whether the trend was gaining steam. (This article is me betting John's not going to get to that soon. @John Bonnes, if I'm stealing your thunder, sorry.) It's classic sports podcasting, and classic improv. He was trying to "yes, and" Aaron's take on Buxton. Aaron, not having gotten quite the unvarnished agreement he was seeking and worried that the message ("Byron Buxton: good") was getting lost, heard in John's tangential observation a note of criticism or mitigation, which John didn't intend. The whole thing went off the rails as Aaron tried to debunk John's criticism of Buxton and, in fact, to rebut the idea that it's even good to steal bases, or at least to steal them early in counts. Well, look. John is a busy guy. In fact, as an employee of John's, I happen to know that John had an editorial meeting and a radio appearance yesterday afternoon and has a bunch of payroll stuff to do this week, before the holiday on Friday. And in theory, I'm a busy guy, too, but I have no control over payroll and my job has a lot to do with, you know, answering questions about baseball—questions like, "Is Byron Buxton running more early in counts?" So, let's do that. Yes. He is. Alright, it's more complicated than that. But if you wanted to get a quick-dry answer, that would be the right one. From 2022-24, Byron Buxton stole four total bases on the first pitch of at-bats, and one base on a 1-0 count. This year, in just half a season, he's already equaled both of those figures. He did steal four bases in 0-1 counts and five in 1-1 counts over the last three seasons, and he has just one total steal across those two counts this year, but right away, on the first pitch, he's going much more this year than in the past. John specifically noted that he sensed Buxton running more right away in the last month or so. So noted, so confirmed. Buxton did steal on a 2-2 pitch (and that to the second batter after he'd reached first) Saturday against the Tigers, but his steal on Friday came on the first pitch of a plate appearance. So did one against the Brewers last Sunday. As John said, counting only steals is an imperfect approach, because Buxton will somewhat often take off on pitches the batter fouls off, but there's at least a modicum of evidence that he's running earlier in counts. Of course, running "early" means more than just running before the hitter gets deep in the count. It's also much more valuable to advance to second base (or, if one is already on second, to third) with nobody or one out than with two. For some reason, Aaron cast some doubt on this premise during the show; he was really thrown off by John taking the conversation in this direction. But the premise is unassailable. Here's a run expectancy table for 2025, courtesy of the great Ben Clemens at FanGraphs. Because there are more chances to be driven in (and the risk of a double play is drastically reduced, and the potential for a manufactured run is greater), getting from first to second with nobody out is worth about 0.25 runs. With one out, it's worth about 0.19 runs. With two outs, it's worth just 0.10 runs. Assuming the odds of being caught are about the same regardless of the number of outs (and, in Buxton's case, assuming the odds of being caught are quite low, no matter what), you absolutely want to make your move early. Buxton is doing that this year, to a degree he hasn't even approximated since 2017. He's already stolen six bases with nobody out in the inning this season. He only stole a total of four bases with nobody out from 2022-24, and the only other campaign in which he's stolen more than three bases with zero outs was 2017, when he stole 10. All of this is, of course, an outgrowth of Buxton being more aggressive overall. He's attempted steals in 3.2% of his opportunities this year, according to Statcast, up from 1.5% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2023. Here, "opportunities" are defined as pitches thrown while the player is on base, without a runner in front of them on the bases, so while this isn't isolating early counts, the fact that his attempt rate has doubled means Buxton is sticking around for fewer pitches before taking off. He's also making a bigger difference by running than ever before; his five high-leverage steals this year are already the most he's logged since 2019. I can't quite document that Buxton is being disproportionately more aggressive early in counts than later, but I don't think that's what John was saying, anyway. The claim, it seems to me, was that Buxton's improved health and new role as the leadoff man has led him to take off more promptly once he reaches base, trying to press the issue; avoid double plays; get into scoring position for the fairly low-power heart of the Twins order; and create a spark. Those things do matter, and indeed, Buxton is doing them more this year—perhaps especially since he moved to the top of the batting order. He's taking off before teammates can fall behind in counts trying to give him a pitch on which to run, and he's doing so while the inning is young enough that they might bring him around via well-placed ground balls or flyouts. Taken together (and accounting for other runners, the batter striking out during one of his steals, and his advancing on a throwing error on another), Buxton's steals have been worth 2.8 runs to the Twins this year. From 2022-24, due both to lower volume and running in less advantageous situations, he added just 1 total run with his steals. Stealing bases is no longer the exclusive work of young players, but stealing early does seem like a young man's game. It's wonderful to see Buxton taking an extra 90 feet by force, here and there, at the earliest opportunity and when it will open the most chances for his team to create a run. It's even cooler to see it happen at an age when most players have to start being more wily and relying more on the pitcher forgetting about them. It truly does seem as though getting his knee fully cleaned up has given Buxton a rare reset—a second chance at the career that seemed doomed to be perennially blunted by injuries. This time, though Aaron wasn't exactly wrong (on the major points), John was right. View full article

No offense, man, and I fully understand that we can't all subscribe to everything, but you don't know what I've proven. You're not a Caretaker, so you haven't read like 65% of this article.

Well, short-term, Lee is the guy who fills in, but yes, they need to add a talented shortstop to their system. That should be a focus, and is part of what I'm saying here. I also think, though, that they'd be wise to move Correa ASAP; get him accustomed to the hot corner; and force themselves to become more decisive in the way they build their roster over the next few years than they have been in building it over the last few years. Culpepper is the medium-term answer, and you can try to upgrade from there, but the point is that Correa's not viable there. You have to set a higher bar for infield defense than they've been able to this year.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images It was not a good week for Carlos Correa at shortstop. In fact, it hasn't been a good month, and (despite a few strong plays and his ironclad reputation) it hasn't been a good year, either. At 30 years old, the Twins' star shortstop is looking less and less like one—a shortstop, that is, although since he's not hitting well, he's also looking less and less like a star. Last week, Baseball Prospectus released an expansion and update to its model for fielding evaluation. Prospectus's value metric for fielders is called Defensive Runs Prevented (DRP), and its backbone is Range Defense Added (RDA). The latter is meant to capture the number of balls a player reaches and converts to outs, above or below the number an average defender would be expected to reach and convert in the same array of opportunities. Along with a move to expand one of the components of RDA—Attempt Range, a measurement of how many balls a player gets to, above or below average—to all infielders, the update also corrected some former biases in apportioning responsibility to infielders based on the reported location of batted balls. On the other side of all that, here are Correa's RDA, Attempt Range, and DRP totals for each season since 2021: Season Attempt Range RDA Outs DRP 2021 3 7.5 5.5 2022 -3 2.6 1.9 2023 -10 0 0 2024 -2 -1 -1.7 2025 -11 -3.4 -2.4 That's about as clear a linear trend as you could ask for. Keep in mind, too, that these are counting stats. For instance, if we prorated Correa's 2024 performance to about the same number of innings he played in each of the previous three years, he'd have been closer to 2.5 runs worse than average. If he plays all season the way he has so far, he'll be about 5 runs worse than average, in similar playing time to that over which he was better than average in 2022 and exactly average in 2023. Specifically, the Attempt Range column is telling us that Correa is getting worse at getting to the ball. He still has a very strong arm, a good internal clock, and a certain brilliance when it comes to taking a lead runner or converting a tough chopper into a double play. He just doesn't have the range you need from a shortstop in the majors. That probably hits you funny, because Correa is still widely praised for his glovework. That's not entirely without merit. You can, indeed, see him make very good plays from time to time, and he rarely makes an ugly mistake. According to Sports Info Solutions and their Defensive Runs Saved evaluation framework, he's had a neutral or positive rating when it comes to Good Fielding Plays versus Defensive Misplays and Errors for every season since 2019. However, even DRS shows him nosing steeply downward, including this year. He's struggled going to his left for a few years, now, but in 2025, he's also not getting outs on balls to his right as well as he used to. Numbers—especially defensive numbers—can be hard to take at face value, though. Let's take a walk through the last week (just one week) of defense for Correa, to see this problem in a more undeniable form. View full article