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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Awful, they've drafted and developed two in the organization's entire run in Minnesota. It still needs to happen though. To be clear, I'm not against supplementing the homegrown talent with difference makers from the outside, in 1987 they brought back Blyleven and in 1991 they got Morris. However the Twins already did this with this club with Nolasco, Hughes and Santana, unfortunately it doesn't look like it was enough. Can't keep doubling down on these bad contracts, at some point they have to try a different approach.
  2. nicksaviking
    I'm not saying it's a quick fix, but I can't believe creating your own ace(s) organically is only based on luck. I don't think buying one is easy though either. Forget about the ramifications of sticking a fourth 30+ year old pitcher in the rotation, how could the Twins convince Greinke to pass up the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Red Sox or Cubs and come to Minnesota? The Twins would have to pay a lot more money, or worse, more years. Teams not in big markets have to make their own, otherwise they'll have to be satisfied with calling middle of the road starters like Nolasco, Hughes or Santana an ace and live with it. I'd consider a trade however if the Mets could be convinced to part with one of their aces.
  3. nicksaviking
    I think you need an ace or five, but I don't think you chase them. The team simply has to start making their own. If they continually fail at this task that most other teams have not failed at nearly as often, wholesale changes need to be made. Developing strikeout generating horses is one of the biggest keys to this whole game. I also think we're getting awfully close to trying to buy our way out of a rebuild, which is going to really hurt a sustained run of success.
  4. nicksaviking
    I always got the impression that Joe Mauer's hitting coach was Joe Mauer. That's not necessarily a criticism either, the guy knows about hitting and mechanics. Many hitters age and lose bat speed but cheat a bit and sacrifice strikeouts but gain some power. Joe just never had the mechanics for the power; it seems to me there's just no trade off for him and what appears to be diminished bat speed.
  5. nicksaviking
    Batting average and semantics aside, I think the OP is perhaps trying to say the lineup isn't reliable. Maybe Plouffe was consistently average with consistently poor on-base skills and Mauer and Suzuki were consistently poor, but Dozier, Hicks and Hunter were certainly inconsistent. Maybe inconsistent wasn't the right word, but I'm not sure how reliable the vets are.
  6. nicksaviking
    I think he's taking lessons from 6' 10" Chris Young.
  7. nicksaviking
    Only way Joe walks away is if he is too injured to play everyday without discomfort. That probably won't happen, but off the top of my head, Gil Meche and Ryne Sandburg did it so there is some precedence, though those guys weren't staring the kind of money that Mauer is in the face. They were however making pretty elite money for their day. Of course as suggested the Twins could engage in some covert talks with Mauer and provide some incentives for him to walk away, the problem is that if Mauer isn't receptive to the idea and runs to the players union, the Twins will have a huge union and PR issues on their hands. So I'd guess nothing of the sort would happen.
  8. nicksaviking
    He's a strictly platoon guy these days and even though he might be somewhat effective, the Twins haven't been a team that likes to platoon. Also, I'm not sure the Twins would bat him at the top of the lineup as he has no speed. If they signed him they should, but last year showed us they are still pretty "traditional" with lineup decisions. Even so, signing him would basically mean getting rid of Arcia and maybe even Vargas. Unless Arcia AND Plouffe can get moved this year I think the Twins would just be throwing talent away. Not a bad player, and if the Twins used him right, he could help, but I'm still pushing to develop the young players instead of signing vets. I think I'm in the minority though.
  9. nicksaviking
    I agree in that I'd rather have one elite guy than three such pitchers as the Twins recently signed. But I don't agree with the listed starting pitchers that were a success. Greinke's first three years were great. Darvish's were too, but 2015 was lost and now were looking at two post TJ seasons when we won't know when he'll be back, and we won't know if he's effective. Tanaka is now looking at 5 more seasons with a partially torn UCL and a K/9 that has already dropped over a full point. Scherzer looked very good, Lester looked OK, but they still have seven and five years left, these guys are way too early to judge. You're right on Sabbatia, his first contract was good, the was second bad. Just like Greinke's first half of his opt out.
  10. nicksaviking
    I would be just fine with a rotation of Greinke and four young arms, and in a hypothetical situation, Ryan might be too, but that doesn't change the fact that the other veterans are in the picture. Armchair GM's like myself would be fine cutting bait on those guys, but Ryan, and likely every other GM just aren't going to do it.
  11. nicksaviking
    Completely out of context of your big market/small market discussion, but forget about the teams, in mass those contracts look horrible. Greinke (the younger version) was good. Scherzer had a good season but is definately still TBD, Lester, Tanaka and Darvish are TBD with giant red flags pointing toward regret. Let's be the team that gets all the financial and statistical benefit from these kinds of guys when they're in their 20's and trade or get comp picks for these types of pitchers when their first contracts wind down instead.
  12. nicksaviking
    Yeah, but it's not Greinke OR the other pitchers, it's Greinke AND the other pitchers, and the other pitchers are almost certainly going to be the other aging guys on ugly contracts. Any more signings that are going to encourage keeping May, Duffey and Berrios out of the rotation should be avoided.
  13. nicksaviking
    I would also add that they haven't been good at identifying what kind of contracts they should be giving out in free agency. Maybe I'm being too calculating, but in my opinion, if you give a guy a contract that can't later be traded if the season goes down the drain, it was a bad contract.
  14. nicksaviking
    Nolasco in the 2015-16 offseason has a pretty recent comp in Mike Pelfrey in the 2014-15 offseason. Maybe the team will get lucky and get similar results next year. Not that everyone isn't completely justified in wishing neither were/are a rotation option.
  15. nicksaviking
    I don't think this can be fixed for 2016, just too many ugly contracts in the rotation. The goal should be to have no more than one pitcher over 30 on a multi-year deal come 2017. Don't worry about recouping list salary in the form of players, just move at minimum two of Nolasco, Hughes or Santana whenever they flash enough to tempt a team to take a chance on them, regardless of compensation.
  16. nicksaviking
    The article was interesting and made a ton of good points, but still seemed pretty subjective. The list of acquired pitchers was pretty fantastic, even if it had just been Santana, Liriano and Nathan. That's a really impressive group. What's not impressive is those moves happened long, long ago. The article would have been more effective if the samples were shortened in years and the article instead discussed the suggested (though inflammatorily unexplored and thus unsupported) angle of the Twins not getting any SABR friendly players in the last decade or so since these kind of measurements have been easily accessible. It basically boiled down to saying "The Twins are bad at trades and free agency, except sometimes when they weren't last decade." Great try to explain why and propose a solution.
  17. nicksaviking
    As much as we want one, judging by the fact that he split time between C, OF and 1B in independent ball, there's probably a very slim chance he'll actually get catcher considerations for his hypothetical MLB call up. I find it hard to believe his defense is passable at the highest level if he's never been able to man the position full time in the minors. He barely even played catcher his last year in the Rangers organization. I think Garver's safe. Not that he should be.
  18. nicksaviking
    Also, Escobar did it this year with a .301 BABIP as opposed to Santana's .405 last year.
  19. nicksaviking
    Desmond's AVG, OBP, SLG and UZR have decreased each of the past three seasons. This doesn't look like a one year blip, it looks like a trend. I wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a long term deal. I also wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a short term deal considering he's going to cost the Twins a first round draft pick. Escobar isn't sexy, but his bat is above average and there is nothing to indicate that he is anything other than a middle of the road defender, which I can't believe isn't fine considering the issues this club has had with the position for nearly its entire existence. Unless he's been bad in the few games I missed, shortstop doesn't look anything close to a concern to me at this time.
  20. nicksaviking
    I'm still pretty annoyed that the Mets and the Wilpons got off with only monetary penalties for the whole Bernie Madoff scam. Then I was further annoyed that the players union and the MLB didn't put up much of a fight when the Mets tanked their payroll to pay for those monetary penalties. I figured if Selig wasn't so tight with the Wilpons, they would have been forced to sell the team due to the scam. And yet, I still say go Mets! Their con ran much shorter than the con the Cubs ownership(s) have been running the last 100 years or so.
  21. nicksaviking
    What am I missing with Vavra, why would he leave leave willingly? He basically got promoted to second in command last year and he's from Western Wisconsin. He wasn't one of Gardy's guys either. Ryan brought him in from outside the organization to replace Gardy's guy Scott Ulger. Also his kid's in the system, and doing unexpectedly well.
  22. nicksaviking
    Well there were 12 SS with 500 innings and a positive DRS in 2015. And Escobar was one of them. Reyes wasn't. Desmond's DRS of one was less than Escobar's.
  23. nicksaviking
    Judging by past critiques of defensive minded catchers from Twins fans, Zunino's sub-Mendoza schtick isn't going to out-weigh any defensive addition he provides for very long. It's not just his MLB stats either, since he made a splash in 2012, his MiLB numbers have been terrible. I wouldn't have guessed it was mathematically possible, but Kurt Suzuki's sad .610 OPS was 80 points higher than Zunino this year. And everyone wants Suzuki replaced. If we want Zunino, might as well check to see if we can get the just as (in)effective store brand version they have over in TB for cash considerations first. That one's called J.P. Arancibia and his lack of draft position pedigree will probably cause him to cost nearly nothing.
  24. nicksaviking
    I think Michael is almost certainly going to make the big leagues even if only because of the fact that he was a 1st round pick. Only three college players drafted ahead of him have yet to hit the majors and two of those almost certainly would have by now if not for injury. As a utility infielder with good on-base skills and the pedigree of a 1st round pick, there's a pretty good chance he'll get picked in the Rule V. If the Twins protect him and put him on the 40-man, they almost certainly will give him a call at some point.
  25. nicksaviking
    I am so done with ground ball pitchers. I don't think ground balls even come close to making up for a lack of strikeouts, in fact, based on the fact that grounders are more susceptible to errors than fly balls, I'd much prefer a fly ball pitcher who can't get strikeouts than a ground ball pitcher who can't. Also, I trust pitchers leaving Oakland slightly more than I trust batters who leave Colorado. I don't much care about the splits, I do care about the historical ineptitude of Oakland pitchers leaving Oakland. I'd like Sonny Gray if he was on my team, but I'd hate to pay for him because you'll have to give up ace value for him, and he's no ace. The Twins need to infuse the rotation with guys who miss bats, this wouldn't help. If anything it would hurt.
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